James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
Found a nice home at Seeking Alpha, which has been a great source of readers and (paying) subscribers, which I thought was a good thing, until I read that comment that makes it all sound so dirty.
Am I dirty, James? You would tell me, wouldn't you? Am I dirty (that would include other negative attributes, such as being a liar or sleazy)?
If you look at price reactions to earnings, it is clear that earnings play a role, but increasingly it is the expectation of a certain level of earnings that plays an even important factor. Anyone can play a staid P/E ratio. What matters in a dynamic sense is the elation or disappointment with regard to earnings and the anticipation of future earnings as laid out in guidance.
So, yes. It is part of the equation. Never remove the human element or minimize its role. It is what ends up being responsible for the seismic moves.
Since this article was forward looking, it can't qualify as a non-fiction piece, so I suppose it's already a novel of sorts.. But then again, many novels are thinly veiled retellings of real events.
If I were an investor with a long term horizon, I would have been very happy with this move into oil and diversification of the their portfolio, However,even if a premium was paid and the deal isn't immediately accretive, it still feels as if the reaction was beyond excessive. But then, what else is new?
You hit on a couple of really important and related points.
Greed is the real killer. I always get amused when people criticize the covered option technique, for example, as one that limits upside potential. In their criticism, they are essentially saying that they are perfect market timers and know when to sell their shares (presumably always at the peak).
The reality is that human nature, greed, prevents us from doing that. We almost always think that there's more to be had and instead, end up watching those paper profits disappear.
There's nothing wrong with being assigned and turning those paper profits into real ones and then getting to do it all over again.
Turn The Key On This Retirement Strategy [View article]
Statistics indicate that their is a finite pool of net new jobs in the United States. You may claim that to be a fallacy, but you do so simply to suit a fallacious argument.
The net creation of jobs is lagging behind the demand for such. Even as employment numbers go up they have not kept up with the demand for jobs by a growing population of those newly entering the workforce. That is very often the case when a baby boom or boomlet generation comes of age. At present, that has been compounded by increased productivity, off-shoring and technological advances in the manufacturing process that have less need for a workforce.
Throughout the 20th century there have been periods when that has been the case, but economic expansion mitigated the impact.
You're missing a big point and you choose to equate retiring with no longer contributing to society. The point that you overlook is that there can be a mechanism by which to create income and wealth without the need to maintain your regular employment as you are approaching, or have already entered into your retirement. That is the premise. It is not to simply retire and then live off the efforts of others. Retire and create an environment whereby you create new wealth, instead and also allow others to finally get their chance to enter the workforce and begin their careers.
Not only that, but consider the statement that is so often cited regarding the 50% of Americans that pay no taxes. Besides the opportunistic definition of "taxes," since they mean "no additional taxes," as a result of having over paid via with-holding, the vast majority of people who truly do not pay taxes are the retired, whose income is predominantly related to their social security benefit.
Now, consider the difference if those who supplemented their retirement with an investment strategy whose primary aim was to produce income actually did so.
Did I mention that investment income is taxable income?
Does society not benefit from the generation of taxable income? Beyond that, the job that I give up, in order to find the time to create income and wealth through investment activity can now be taken by someone else who was collecting unemployment benefits due to the scarcity of jobs. Another societal drain has now been removed.
Again, you're welcome.
Your two island concept perpetuates the notion that someone who chooses to retire from a job will simply be a drain on society. It is simplistic and illustrates nothing.
I like to keep investing decisions based purely on investing decisions.
Certain stocks seem to have a more emotional core of investors or a more emotional core that refuse to invest in shares, for any number of reasons.
I look forward to the next opportunity to pick up shares and I know that I will likely have a short holding period. Not because I question the products, not because I question the corporate citizenship, but because I seek profits and my road to profits has been through short term ownership of shares on a cyclic basis.
No emotions, just a dispassionate approach to milking money from shares.
No doubt that there is an economic value to Apple. That's why congratulations are due.
I think that there is a larger picture, besides the fact that Apple simply caved to activist investors and sought to deflect criticism of the company under the leadership of Tim Cook.
I believe that their bond issuance will make very much less likely that legislation will be passed to encourage repatriation of cash in exchange for jobs or infrastructure additions.
Apple will still have the issue of having an incredible amount of assets overseas in a low interest environment and perhaps in a less safe banking environment, as well, and with no way to get it back to the US without meeting its obligations.
In my book, I discuss my past broker at length. I was fortunate to have worked with him for about 25 years, although I sometimes questioned (privately, never to him,) why we didn't take profits or why we sometimes gave up on a position.
He passed away very suddenly and unexpectedly and that was the time that I decided to take responsibility and put into action the ideas that I had been playing with in paper for years.
I do miss him, because he was one of the good ones, but there is a lot to be said for taking responsibility, isn't there?
Part of the fiction is that Apple's share price is held hostage by a low P/E and that low P/E will either serve to protect it from further price drops or will someday be recognized as aberrantly low and propel shares to all time highs.
Profits are one part of the share pricing equation. Whatever contribution a potential Apple TV may or may not have on profits may pale in comparison to the lack of contribution such a product would be expected to make toward earnings growth. That will cost you your next $100
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
Am I dirty, James? You would tell me, wouldn't you? Am I dirty (that would include other negative attributes, such as being a liar or sleazy)?
Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
If you look at price reactions to earnings, it is clear that earnings play a role, but increasingly it is the expectation of a certain level of earnings that plays an even important factor. Anyone can play a staid P/E ratio. What matters in a dynamic sense is the elation or disappointment with regard to earnings and the anticipation of future earnings as laid out in guidance.
So, yes. It is part of the equation. Never remove the human element or minimize its role. It is what ends up being responsible for the seismic moves.
Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
Simple Is Better [View article]
Turning Hatred Into Profits [View article]
Greed is the real killer. I always get amused when people criticize the covered option technique, for example, as one that limits upside potential. In their criticism, they are essentially saying that they are perfect market timers and know when to sell their shares (presumably always at the peak).
The reality is that human nature, greed, prevents us from doing that. We almost always think that there's more to be had and instead, end up watching those paper profits disappear.
There's nothing wrong with being assigned and turning those paper profits into real ones and then getting to do it all over again.
Turn The Key On This Retirement Strategy [View article]
The net creation of jobs is lagging behind the demand for such. Even as employment numbers go up they have not kept up with the demand for jobs by a growing population of those newly entering the workforce. That is very often the case when a baby boom or boomlet generation comes of age. At present, that has been compounded by increased productivity, off-shoring and technological advances in the manufacturing process that have less need for a workforce.
Throughout the 20th century there have been periods when that has been the case, but economic expansion mitigated the impact.
You're missing a big point and you choose to equate retiring with no longer contributing to society. The point that you overlook is that there can be a mechanism by which to create income and wealth without the need to maintain your regular employment as you are approaching, or have already entered into your retirement. That is the premise. It is not to simply retire and then live off the efforts of others. Retire and create an environment whereby you create new wealth, instead and also allow others to finally get their chance to enter the workforce and begin their careers.
Not only that, but consider the statement that is so often cited regarding the 50% of Americans that pay no taxes. Besides the opportunistic definition of "taxes," since they mean "no additional taxes," as a result of having over paid via with-holding, the vast majority of people who truly do not pay taxes are the retired, whose income is predominantly related to their social security benefit.
Now, consider the difference if those who supplemented their retirement with an investment strategy whose primary aim was to produce income actually did so.
Did I mention that investment income is taxable income?
Does society not benefit from the generation of taxable income? Beyond that, the job that I give up, in order to find the time to create income and wealth through investment activity can now be taken by someone else who was collecting unemployment benefits due to the scarcity of jobs. Another societal drain has now been removed.
Again, you're welcome.
Your two island concept perpetuates the notion that someone who chooses to retire from a job will simply be a drain on society. It is simplistic and illustrates nothing.
How Much Money Does It Take To Make Money? [View article]
Shame On You, Apple [View article]
Certain stocks seem to have a more emotional core of investors or a more emotional core that refuse to invest in shares, for any number of reasons.
I look forward to the next opportunity to pick up shares and I know that I will likely have a short holding period. Not because I question the products, not because I question the corporate citizenship, but because I seek profits and my road to profits has been through short term ownership of shares on a cyclic basis.
No emotions, just a dispassionate approach to milking money from shares.
Shame On You, Apple [View article]
I think that there is a larger picture, besides the fact that Apple simply caved to activist investors and sought to deflect criticism of the company under the leadership of Tim Cook.
I believe that their bond issuance will make very much less likely that legislation will be passed to encourage repatriation of cash in exchange for jobs or infrastructure additions.
Apple will still have the issue of having an incredible amount of assets overseas in a low interest environment and perhaps in a less safe banking environment, as well, and with no way to get it back to the US without meeting its obligations.
It's All Relative [View article]
We Have Met The Enemy [View article]
In my book, I discuss my past broker at length. I was fortunate to have worked with him for about 25 years, although I sometimes questioned (privately, never to him,) why we didn't take profits or why we sometimes gave up on a position.
He passed away very suddenly and unexpectedly and that was the time that I decided to take responsibility and put into action the ideas that I had been playing with in paper for years.
I do miss him, because he was one of the good ones, but there is a lot to be said for taking responsibility, isn't there?
Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
Profits are one part of the share pricing equation. Whatever contribution a potential Apple TV may or may not have on profits may pale in comparison to the lack of contribution such a product would be expected to make toward earnings growth. That will cost you your next $100
Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]