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George Acs  

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  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    The key word is "supposed" to be lent out. While there's some evidence of recent increased lending, there's not too much disagreement that since 2008 the re-circulation of money into the economy from savings, wherever they have been stored, has been much reduced, as banks have not been lending, for a variety of reasons, including regulatory requirements.

    Given that new reality, it's hard to blame Bernanke for policies that may have not rewarded savers, who were indirectly being punished by banks not doing what banks were supposed to be doing.

    I didn't blame savers for saving. I indicated that the Federal Reserve placed greater hopes on helping the economy by helping those who would be more likely to re-circulate cash. It's not an issue of whether the investor class or the saver class is inherently better for the economy. They each have to deal with the environment that exists at a moment in time
    Aug 3, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    There's no question that the Federal Reserve hasn't necessarily been a friend to savers over the past 6 years. However, when you look at the macro picture investors are far more important to the economy than are savers.

    One takes money out of the economy, while the other circulates and re-circulates it.

    I want irrational dumping of stock, as well. You can't blame anyone for wanting to buy something at an unnecessarily reduced price. Would you not go into a store that was having a Going Out of Business Sale" if there were products you wanted at prices you couldn't resist?

    That has nothing to do with Wall Street, it has to do with a human desire to be opportunistic.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    That scenario doesn't seem too likely, unless you're of a mind that rates will be raised to levels not seen in 30+ years and done in a very rapid manner.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    I agree that a modest rate in interest rate hikes should not have a negative impact for anything more than a day or two of trading. History confirms that the early stages of rate increases are viewed ultimately as validation of an expanding economy and is good news.

    The fears are irrational, but they are rampant and have been for more than a year.

    Your thought process can't be argued, except that rational thought processes don't necessarily have good predictive value.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    Living near DC and knowing many people who are Federal government employees, I can only tell you that my experience is significantly different.

    That's not to say that there isn't government waste and inefficiency, but you should probably look toward the top of the pyramid in any given agency or department, rather than to the ones attempting to fulfill the mission.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    When does the first half of the article ever have anything to do with the second half? However, the second half of your opening sentence has little to do with the second half of that sentence.

    The theme is vacation and the closing thought is vacation. Beautifully spun, I might say (even if I don't believe that to be the case).

    As far as your question as to what the relationship is between the FOMC raising rates and the stock market's performance, as I've written on a number of occasions, the actual longer term impact is a positive one, in the early phases of a rising interest rate environments.

    What is more salient, however, is the crazed speculation that occurs whenever there is a suggestion that rates may finally go higher. It's hard to deny that there has been a relationship between those two and the response has been blind as to the historical behavior of markets in response to early rate increases.

    As far as spot interest rates go, you could have said very much the same a few weeks ago and then found that the sentiment on interest rates had changed. That has occured numerous times over the past few months and has seen 10% swings in rates in a matter of days in intermediate term securities, such as the 10 Year.

    That could again easily be the situation by the end of this week if the Employment Situation numbers turn out to be a disappointment
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    Never discount luck, good or bad. It makes as much sense as all of the various analyses combined.
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    Thanks.

    I had sold the $49 7/31 calls on TXN, but with yesterday's pop higher, I decided that rather than accept the likelihood of early assignment, I would roll it over to 8/14.

    I was hoping, a little bit, at least, that the new contract would be assigned early, but that wasn't the case.

    That comment about DOW staying up 2 days in a row is a great observation and it applies to almost everything that's not part of a buyout/takeover story lately. Individual stocks have been having an incredibly hard time stringing together gains and have been taking longer and longer to recover from large drops, especially when you look at where the indexes are. Their levels are very deceiving
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    I decided to rollover that TXN this afternoon, not wanting to lose the dividend without something extra in return. With today's surge that leaves about $1.30 of leeway over the next 2 weeks in the event of price weakness.

    The best outcome would be if the new 8/14 $49 strikes were assigned early in order to capture the dividend. The early rollover premium would then amount to the equivalent of about 85% of the dividend and then getting the cash back to add to reserves or re-plow.
    Jul 28, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    I've definitely been trading much less these past few weeks.

    Facebook will be interesting. So much anticipation about in breaking 100. Some good numbers tomorrow could finally do it and more.
    Jul 28, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    There are so many over-sold sectors that you have to think that there will be some kind of rotation happening soon.

    The big issue may be that with margin accounts really over-extended and at all time highs, what will happen if there continues to be some downward pressure? Will that result in tipping holders into becoming forced sellers? That would put lots of pressure on S&P support levels at about 2045 and the next stop is about 2000
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    Isn't it so nice when it works like that?

    If we ever see a return of volatility it can get even better. Right now, there's virtually no reason to consider rolling over a position that's going to get assigned, other than if you want to try and get an upcoming dividend or play earnings. But when volatility is higher there's often good reason to roll over rather than take assignment, as the forward week premiums reflect more uncertainty that the expiring ones. Right now, it's just the opposite.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    I've been having cobwebs grow underneath and around me over the past month and can't really recall a time since weekly options were introduced, that I've seen so little activity across my screen.

    If F gives up some of this morning's post-earnings gains and gets within a few cents of 14.65 in either direction, there may be a reason to make the weekly $14.50 buy/write trade.

    I envy your cash position, though.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    After receiving a yellow card for a pun a couple of weeks ago, you are back with a vengeance

    I once looked up the meaning of "dickens," thinking that somehow it was related to Charles Dickens, but it turned out to be somehow related to William Shakespeare. I just can't recall the connection, but there's no shortage of characters from him, either.

    I'm sure that your grandma was referring to the good characters.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Only Dickens Could Understand [View article]
    Some human characteristics are definitely timeless in their quality. We will forever find ourselves in situations when the fever erases the ability to be rational and others will be right there to fuel the flames.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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