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George Acs  

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  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    While the government can always be pointed at when looking to assign blame, it's funny how few want to give credit when their hand is visible.

    It reminds me that my wife always used to say that as parents we should always take credit when people complimented our kids for the good things they did or their achievements, even if we had no discernible role.

    Her reasoning was pretty sound. May as well take credit, because you sure know that people are going to be even more quick to blame you for the other things your kids will do, whether you had any role or not.
    Nov 16, 2015. 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    Over the past few decades, it's hard to count how many times the US economy, as a whole, has been written off and how often we've believed that the Federal Reserve was in their own, clueless bubble.

    What the US has, and that most nations have yet to show, is resiliency and adaptability.

    Add to that an incredible sense of creativity and you have an economy that keeps evolving, not only staying ahead of the curve, but defining the curve.
    Nov 16, 2015. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks, but you're right. I think that may be why the title has been recycled a few times. It's a gift that never stops giving.
    Nov 16, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    I used to work with someone years ago, who used that expression.

    I'd never heard it before, except she used to use it when being explained something that most people thought was crystal clear. I don't have any doubts that she was continually genuinely confused, but I think that I may be in her camp right now.

    If this is all crystal clear I need to re-calibrate myself in a big way
    Nov 16, 2015. 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    I think we will continue to be that center as China goes through their painful growth phase and will begin seeing significant pressures to alter their political system, particularly as some natural economic down cycles hit home in any depth.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    I'm not certain that the answer to your question is as obvious as you may believe. Increasing rates itself may not do anything other than to take away a cloud of uncertainty that periodically hangs over the head of this market, but any reaction to an initial rate rise could just as easily go in a different direction the very next day.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    I like that idea, although in hindsight everyone will quickly take credit for having called events.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    The FOMC's indecisiveness is still a far more reasoned and mature stance than that of traders that can't decide on whether it is good or bad or can't open a history book to see that the initial rate rises reflect good news and herald more good news.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]

    I blame Richard Fischer for making it permissible for Federal Reserve Governors to speak their minds and for Alan Greenspan for not keeping him in the doghouse longer when Fischer first started sharing non-majority opinions.

    There are far too many voices who give the impression that they are speaking for the FOMC.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud (Part 2) [View article]
    It depends on whether you thought I was referring to Dunkin Donuts or Johnson and Johnson. You believe that the reference should have been directed toward DNKN.

    The recent roller coaster ride in JNJ could warrant the use of a motion sickness remedy.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Work [View article]
    Thanks, but I may have to Google "Ellen in the Afternoon."

    My wife used to complain when I watched Cramer on Mad Money. She thought that his voice was so irritating. Then she would proceed and switch the channel over to Judge Judy and didn't seem to notice an equally grating sound.

    The lesson is that it takes all kinds of people.

    As far as the old days go, I used to wish that it wasn't cost prohibitive to do the buy/write approach, especially when it was so hard to be able to pick up more than 100 or 200 shares of anything. It was just so expensive and the bid-ask discrepancies were so big that it took such a large move higher to even reach a break even.

    Now, not only do we have 1000 channels to choose from, but it's so easy to go in and out of positions and with larger positions, those pennies now do start adding up.
    Nov 13, 2015. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Work [View article]

    While I agree that there may be better ways to spend your time in early retirement than sitting in front of a computer and watching/trading your stocks, as Gary J says, I guess that finding the time to post almost 8000 comments is among those glorious uses of one's time during the period leading up to the golden years.

    Somehow, though, I don't mind being in control of how I decide to use my time and create a means of worrying a little less as those golden years do approach, although i guess that it's nice to have someone tell me that it's wrong to follow a path that suits me as it does rarely result in the maiming of puppies and baby seals.
    Nov 13, 2015. 06:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Work [View article]
    Someone asked me yesterday if I had ever seen a market like this one and it didn't take too long to answer.

    I assumed that he meant a market that was near its all time highs yet so many stocks of quality companies were in correction or bear territory and they were taking so long to begin even mediocre recoveries.

    If that's what he meant, then I can't really recall a similar market. Even when the so called "Four Horsemen" were market leaders you saw other stocks participating, although to a much lesser degree.

    In the DJIA, if you remove the impact of GE, DIS, MSFT and a couple of others, you see a more accurate picture.

    In the S&P 500, start by taking out AMZN, NFLX, SBUX and a few others, in addition to those DJIA stocks and you're left with a really sad market

    This week I ended up doing an IP trade (and that got hit hard yesterday), Macy's (but after earnings) and sold STX puts again. With the exception of IP, which expires today, I went a little longer term on the others, thinking that there may be some challenges ahead.

    But why would anyone have expected yesterday's challenge, for example?

    At the moment, there's some real confusion reigning. Even as employment statistics are higher, how in the world can retailers be giving such terrible guidance? How can the FOMC members be so split on what to do next and when?

    Those things, and others, make it difficult to have much confidence in what tomorrow will bring.

    I've definitely been pining for range bound days, but have focused on a few range bound stocks for the past couple of months, going in and out with them multiple times since mid-August, with a little bit of luck. Among those have been MS, BAC, GE, STX puts and a couple of others, but it's also been related to lucky timing (although we'll see how yesterday's STX put sale works out.)

    I'm with you, though, in sitting on far too many positions that aren't generating revenue now, other than doing precisely what you've been doing and trying to grab a few additional cents perhaps for a couple of days of writing a short term call on one of those rare up days.

    The real issue, I think, right now is that if you don't have a decent cash reserve, it's really likely to compound your risk if selling losing positions and looking to re-invest in something else.

    I've been really, really patient, but continue to be stunned at how long the downturns have been for so many companies.
    Nov 13, 2015. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Work [View article]
    And so you decided to waste your time, nonetheless.

    Your words, not mine.
    Nov 13, 2015. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Work [View article]
    You see, I looked at the key word as being "only" in the phrase "...Right. I forgot, the idea is to pick big winners only...."

    I imagine that based upon your previous comments you place yourself in the category of "best at what they do."

    You didn't seem to have any problem overlooking that word, which seems to reflect your experience. Only big winners.

    Even the best at what they do can't pick big winners exclusively. You continue to cherry pick in your examples. That's especially easy to do in hindsight. I prefer to be proactive and forward looking. Every one has to start someplace, so why don't you grace people and provide a sure thing to someone just starting out and help them with a new position purchase right now?

    Of course, since you can say "here you go. Call me back in 30 years and let me know how it turned out," I'm certain you're up to that challenge.

    But what intrigues me is that you are free to serve up criticism, without really having an idea of what it is that I prefer to do. It is right for me, but I don't particularly look to tell you how you should go about your investing, nor how you should spend your time.
    Nov 12, 2015. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment