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George Acs

 
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  • What's More Frightening Than A Fiscal Cliff? [View article]
    Other than insider information is there anything related to stock picking that isn't?

    Show me a single thesis expounded by well compensated analysts and you can easily find precisely the opposite thesis by an equally well compensated and qualified individual, despite the fact that they have the same data available to them.

    The challenge becomes how to manage your positions once you've committed to the guess. In that case, observation of price patterns and movements helps to shift the odds a bit from 50:50. A casino can do very well with slim margins as can a grocery store. Why not an investor, too?
    Oct 28 10:46 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple's Stock Split Impact Its Shareholders? [View article]
    I don't think that your contention that the sole reason for the split in shares was to "enhance the clientele for the stock," has much basis.


    To begin, Apple is not disproportionately owned by institutions prior to the split. It is owned at about the same level as both Coca Cola and IBM, representing another two very different price points from Apple. It is much more held by individuals than most of the stocks in the S&P 500.


    Additionally, there's no evidence that highly elevated share price is related to increased institutional ownership. There are relatively few stocks in the range of Apple, but among those, they are much more likely to be owned by individual investors than by institutions, when compared to the rest of the S&P 500 stocks. Historically, that included stocks like Google, MasterCard and Amazon, although Priceline and Chipotle are more widely owned by institutions.


    But to suggest that the Board of Directors would show such largesse is hard to accept, particularly since it took considerable arm twisting to get the Board to take any actions that would be considered to be share holder friendly for their existing share holders, much less to do any thing for potential share holders.


    Finally, while Apple may be in an entirely different universe of stocks, perhaps representing an aspirational kind of holding for some, the many years of history indicates that stock splits are all about the math. Any artificial enhancement of share price is usually after the announcement and not after the split and tends to be very transient. Anyone considering buying shares of a split stock, even Apple, on the basis of the split is most likely going to be disappointed, especially if your further contention, that of increased volatility was to become the case.


    It is funny to see on the one hand you dismiss the notion for increased post-split liquidity as being without empirical evidence, and then you suggest that "the stock split might result in lower liquidity."


    Might? Where is that empirical evidence? It's one thing to have a difference of opinion, but to dismiss something for its lack of empirical evidence and then offer more of the same is pure solipsism
    Apr 25 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Was A Friend Of Mine [View article]
    I just assumed that everyone who would know the difference was likely to be dead by now. I know that I'm barely hanging on
    Nov 14 11:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beating A Dead Horse To Life [View article]
    Yes. Yes, it was.
    Jun 29 09:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shame On You, Apple [View article]
    That's right. It shall not and it does not double dip.

    Various foreign entities exact various corporate tax rates. The US cumulative corporate tax rate takes into consideration that which has been paid to a foreign entity once overseas funds are repatriated.
    May 1 02:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shame On You, Apple [View article]
    The SCOTUS interpretation and its application was indeed new. The distinction between corporate entities and people, with regard to certain rights, privileges and obligations had not previously been argued within the context of campaign financing restrictions.
    May 1 12:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor's Remorse [View article]
    The final part of your comment is what most partisans never quite are willing to accept. There is very little, good or bad, that is solely the responsibility of a single political party, individual or entity.

    Somehow, the ability to absolve one's own responsibility and assign complete blame to others knows no political party boundaries.
    Aug 8 11:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor's Remorse [View article]
    I guess that the lack of having actually expressed a political view, as you noted, is irrelevant to some. It almost seems like carrying a chip on one's shoulder, when everything is interpreted as serving to conspire against you, when in fact that may not be the case at all.
    Aug 8 11:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Conceptually, you seem to have a hard time understanding basic elements of what constitutes an equilibrium state. Now you want to confound the fallacy by suggesting that there is a net issuance of shares that offsets cash, in the assumption that all of that cash was derived from the previous sale of securities. Essentially one false premise after another.

    Then you compound your arrogance by saying that's all right and interpreting what you believe i "really meant to say."

    Well, it seems as if you don't understand what I've said at all, then.

    If you read (I would have said re-read, but it's not clear that you ever read it at all) the fourth paragraph, the one that mentions sidelined cash, you would see that it questions why anyone that has been on the sidelines would ever consider getting in at this point, with a parallel drawn to a pot getting ready to come to a boil. Certainly not a statement that supports the notion that prices are destined to go even higher. It is a statement of relative risk, not prospective opportunity.

    So, way, way, off on all counts.
    Jul 26 08:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Thanks, but don't tell that to my pet lobster.

    But seriously, do you know of any portfolio manager who is not a cold blooded animal?
    Jul 26 08:11 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Hand Of Government [View article]
    Thank you, as always Rose.

    In general, I have no problem with government's role in our lives. While I don't always believe in the specifics of a given policy or action, I tend to believe that their intentions are well founded. However, they often suffer from horrible execution and without thorough analysis of the unintended consequences. That tends to be true regardless of which party or side of the aisle is promulgating at the moment.

    The decision regarding oil, for example, may easily result in increased prices for crude as there will likely be increasing bidding for crude, now that refiners can be bypassed. The IRS decision could also open up companies like Federal Express seeking to convert or spin off their real estate holdings specifically to reduce tax consequences. It goes on, just as we've seen that the Affordable Healthcare Act (of which I'm a proponent) may have had a hand in the decreased GDP for the first quarter.

    It's complicated, but that's why we have elected officials. They're supposed to be on top of these things instead of being nothing more than a self-perpetuation machine that spends all of its time seeking re-election.
    Jun 28 11:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Aren't Always As They Seem [View article]
    Take it seriously.
    Nov 17 08:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Was A Friend Of Mine [View article]
    "Agree 100% George"

    I may just do a screen copy of your comment and cut and paste it liberally, as needed.
    Nov 14 02:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    My wife, just got her first iPhone last week, but my son is upgrading. Hopefully the screen is a little more resistant to cracks and the battery is better.

    I'm still in the "need to find a real reason to switch" category, but who cares. It's about using the stock as a means to make money.
    Sep 11 01:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: What Would Munger Do? [View article]
    Hey, making $0.15 is better than having bought it on Friday. I'm only looking to net $0.38/share, but looking to do it over and over again.

    There's more than one way to get to $40
    Sep 3 04:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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