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George Acs  

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  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    The surprise, to me, anyway, has been the difficulty in getting some trades done as volume has really dried up on options, as no one has seemed willing to make the usual bets, as the volatility has gone up.

    That's usually not the case. While the premiums are better, the bid - ask spreads are wider than normal on both puts and calls, as it seems everyone is hedging their bets on hedging their own positions
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    Maybe, but the options markets weren't very liquid the past couple of days. There hasn't been a lot of buying or selling, neither in puts nor calls in individual names.
    Aug 26, 2015. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    I know people that did similar starting in late 2007, but mostly early 2008 when the market started showing some signs of weariness and was at very low volatility. By early 2008 the 10% decline was already in and the long term options were very inexpensive. Their surprise was that while they were right about price recovery was just how long it would take.
    Aug 26, 2015. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    I actually just saw a Tweet that was posted at about 9 AM this morning that went back to 1970 that showed that 22 of the best 25 days in the market occurred when the market was trading below its 200 dma and 20 of those 22 days were during a declining 200 dma.

    Someone had the rigor to check the data. I simply remembered that pattern from lots of false hopes over the years.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    I went to bed a little earlier than your posting and was watching China move in one direction and our futures in another.

    I was a little surprised to see that was still the case this morning and then on top of that to hear about the PBoC rate cut that seemed to add to our gains.

    We'll say whether we are now trading in a world of daily phenomenon and without thematic trend. These really large moves, in alternating direction, are usually seen in bear markets, so I'm circumspect until there's real reason to embrace the market.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    I envy your cash position.

    Yesterday was definitely a day when luck and timing went hand in hand. It was the ultimate in trying to navigate tsunami waves
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    I have to agree. Yesterday's sell off, disregarding a 10 minute opening, was fairly tepid and didn't represent the kind of crescendo that usually seems to accompany hitting some really meaningful support level.

    I'm cautious going forward, but wouldn't say no to gains.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    I definitely wasn't expecting the kind of bounce in the pre-open that we're seeing, especially after having watched the overseas futures and then waking up to another 7% decline in Shanghai.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    OK, you are clearly one of those brave folk out there. Hopefully this morning's futures will reward you with some good profits.

    I could only see fit to open 2 new positions, but it was definitely due to a lack of guts.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    Looking at this morning's futures trading the bounce is a little to high to want to rush in.

    I'm not really certain that Monday's plunge was really the kind of flushing out that was needed. It ended up no worse than Friday and that first 10 minutes of trading was likely fueled by one time kind of algorithmic sell programs and mutual fund redemptions (in addition to margin calls).

    The finance sector has been unduly hit these past few days, but it's understandable seeing where interest rates have gone. For now financials look better to me than other sectors, but with 2 new positions opened yesterday, I'm likely done for the week until there's some clarity ahead.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    It's never worth stroking out.

    All you have to do is look at things and remember "been there and done that" maybe even for the second, third, fourth or fifth time.

    As the lyric goes "I'm still standing..."
    Aug 24, 2015. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    No, I did and do wish for more volatility. I hope that it sticks around for a while.

    I know full well that the mechanism to arrive at higher volatility is generally through a market decline, but that then introduces much more opportunity if selling options
    Aug 24, 2015. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    If you re-read my comment immediately preceding the one to which you have responded, which itself was in response to another reader's comment about Bank of America, you may better understand the intent of my comment.

    I used the example of Altria to illustrate how you can put emotions and certain ethical issues to the side when investing. I, also indicated that I make a distinction between trading such shares in the open market, as opposed to buying shares in an IPO or secondary offering that would directly accrue to a company that was engaged in potentially unsavory business lines.

    There is also a difference between moral and ethical standards and engaging in a felony.

    Morals and ethics can be very subjective and on a situational scale.

    The law is quite different and is codified. While there may still be room for interpretation of the law, that is up to a jury. The same mechanism may not exist for moral and ethical issues other than through a particular organization, that may elect to exercise its judgment on its members.

    I never saw Wall Street, so can't comment on a fictional character, but what Madoff did was illegal, so there shouldn't be any need to explain that there is no room for such behavior.
    Aug 24, 2015. 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    Absolutely.

    It's probably a good thing that there was no such thing as on-line trading back then, it would have been too easy to liquidate holdings and then come to regret having done so, but I'm sure the phone lines to the mutual fund houses were burning up, as well.
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Falls Are Fun, Until They Aren't [View article]
    For those that were around and trading in October 1987, try to remember what it was like trying to call your broker when the bottom fell out one fine day.

    I was riding what may have been the slowest elevator in the NYC municipal hospital system up to my office on the 13th floor. There was an overhead radio in the elevator spinning the news of the market tumble and the ride up was so agonizingly long.

    Other than speaking to your broker there was just no way to have any idea of what was going on until the Nightly Business Report on PBS
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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