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George Acs  

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  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    I still wonder why ADP ever has to revise its numbers, considering that it reports based on submissions from the businesses that contract with ADP. If they have to do revisions it's understandable that the Government would be subject to reporting issues, as well.

    These revisions are so frequent that you have to wonder why there are so many exaggerated market responses when unexpected figures are released.

    While ours may be subject to revision, at least they have to be more believable than anything China releases.
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    I think that we've been very fortunate to have had both Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. While I liked Bernanke, I think Janet Yellen is much more mindful of the impact that the Federal Reserve has on all wrungs of the socio-economic ladder and believes that the economy really can't leave anyone behind.
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    I still can't accept the fact that the "official" earnings season now kicks off with JPM. It will always be Alcoa for (and I suppose that they do comprise a large portion of the planes that American Airlines flies)
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    You're not alone in sometimes equating AA with American Airlines.

    Why Agilent gets the symbol "A" and not Alcoa escapes me, but American Airlines should be AA
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    Speaking of which, Intuit is ex-dividend next week, as well.

    I don't think there's a week that's gone by in the past 5 years that I haven't debated adding Intuit shares, but never have made the commitment.

    Looking at UAL over the past 5-6 weeks, it can easily make a big move in either direction at anytime. A little pressure on oil and bargain hunters will drive it higher. I hope to get out of my current lot, the 4th one in 5 weeks, at $65
    Apr 4, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    A stronger dollar only reduces the price of fuel in relative terms for those that have dollars and increases the price in relative terms for those that have to exchange currency in order to pay in dollars. The strength of the USD does not directly impact the price of energy. In fact a stronger dollar could lead to increased fuel demand in other parts of the world as the demand for their less expensive goods increases, thereby driving greater production and manufacturing and concomitant need for energy, thus sending the price of energy higher.

    That same stronger dollar needn't necessarily impact airfares, particularly on foreign carriers, although if their costs for fuel, priced in dollars is increased, then their airfares may have to respond to those increases.

    The key issue for Europeans is not the costs in getting here, but rather the increased costs once they're here, when everything is priced in now more expensive dollars.
    Apr 4, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    Thank you, if only Marty could have been here to see this day.
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    You're welcome, unless you meant that you just end up doing the opposite.
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    There's no doubt that we've seen an artificial enhancement of P/E due to EPS being increased through buybacks.

    As long as the market continues to use EPS as a guide toward valuation there will be lots of incentive to manipulate share price through financial engineering.

    Eventually the free flow of money will slow and comparative EPS won't demonstrate faux expansion. That won't be a happy time.
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    Over the past 30 years interest rates have been hitting lower highs and lower lows in an overall declining rate environment. In the 25 years before that the pattern was higher rates.

    The only question is not whether we're in a deflationary cycle, but how long will it continue. For now there's not too much reason to think that there will be any change beyond an occasional small spike. However, recent decisions by Wal-Mart, Target and McDonalds do raise their minimum wages is a reflection of something other than altruism. They are certainly seeing some pressures and those can only be good for people and the economy.

    I'm not certain that the experiences in a super -market necessarily reflect broader experiences. Most businesses don't operate on the razor thin margins that super-markets have accepted as standard returns. Just about the only way they can increase bottom lines are through substantially volume increases or controlling labor costs. I could certainly understand why they might be slow in replacing employees, not only keeping labor costs down, but also keeping training costs lower.

    The way that news is interpreted with regard to the stock market isn't necessarily cyclical, it's just unpredictable. At the moment there's more reason to think that bad news is really bad news and good news may be bad news.. It's hard, for me, at least to see what bits of good news will actually propel markets higher right now.
    Apr 4, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    Eh, every couple of hundred ones works out.
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    If the premiums were higher, as they were in the 2008-12 period, I would have almost nothing left uncovered and would likely have used longer term options for those positions under water that also paid decent dividends.

    But with the volatility so low and the premiums following them, the further out you go in time the less is the marginal return on the premium. It gets hard to justify the reward for a long period of being indentured to the contract holder.
    On the other hand, I don't mind trying to pick up some crumbs during the final day or two of a contract by taking a skewed risk-reward proposition, in the bet that in that short time shares won't get subjected to assignment in exchange for a small premium. But that requires vigilance and high maintenance and only worthwhile if you have sufficient contracts to trade.
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    Thursday was an odd day for energy and the airlines. I stayed at $65 for the rollover, but if I had turned away from the computer screen for a few moments that wouldn't have been a possibility as price started to tumble paradoxically when rumors first started about an Iran nuclear deal.

    I think that when the week opens for trading if the thinking continues that such a deal will result in more oil on the market, then airlines should do well.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    Their brief dividend history has been one of using this time for an announcement of an increase. It seems hard to imagine that the Board won't approve another one, as it still is fairly low and has lots of room for sustainable growth.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    AA so often reacts surprisingly after earnings are released. They really are a poster child for good news is bad news and bad news is good news and the various games that are played from the time earnings are announced, the CEO appears on TV, the conference call is given and the stock opens for trading the next day.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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