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George Acs  

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  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    I finally get your math. I didn't realize that you were referring to total return, including capital gains on the shares, to arrive at a $1 net figure. My initial read of your first comment in this string was that you were looking to sell puts, but I was also confused by the comment related to the dividend in the context of a put sale.

    For now CY suffers along with everyone else in sector, but I'm getting ready to double down on shares once the October and November options appear
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Glad that worked. The early trades in the after hours session starting to appear as if it was going to take a tumble, but Benioff is pretty good at selling and telling the story.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    I tend to like these kind of markets, but more so to be able to better exploit what current holdings I have, as premiums are going to reflect the increasing volatility.

    Otherwise, with cash sitting around, The real challenge is deciding when prices represent real value and not the dreaded trap. In hindsight, there may have been any number of occasions to believe that individual stocks, sectors or even markets were reflecting value, only to now be staring at significant losses.

    I agree with you that it's really worth taking a look at emerging markets as currency battles are heating up and the bad news may be coming to a crescendo. It's just the unknown of a second act that bothers me when it comes to committing new money right now.

    Still, with that said, I added Bank of America near the market close this afternoon, although that value got even to be more of a value in the final 10 minutes.

    Wish I had my hindsight going at the time.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Shades of 2011. I have my fingers crossed that these back and forth days are going to stay around for a while. I wouldn't mind not opening any new positions for the rest of the year if I could keep on generating income from what's already there and unable to get assigned.
    At some point those back and forths are going to result in some meaningful rise in volatility
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    They are trying to manage that fall, but history has shown that it's very difficult to change the direction of a moving locomotive.

    Whether its getting in front of a wave of selling in the stock market or trying to support your currency, the natural market forces are greater than whatever a nation can put up against those forces.

    While China may be able to control its people (for now), what they are discovering is that those natural economic forces aren't quite as docile.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    The real problem with China's growth is that they built entirely new cities without regard to how those cities would be self sustaining. My guess is that many of those great projects will go into ruin far more quickly because of local apathy and now a cash squeeze that will make infrastructure maintenance more challenging.

    It also helps that China has had very little in the way of external obligations and has been able to use substantially all of their cash flow on internal projects and in efforts to keep the population appeased, much as the Saudis have down for decades.

    It's when the funds start running dry that things may get interesting.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    After about 6 months of tapering its purchases, the Federal Reserve stopped QE back in October 2014.

    I don't know if you can draw a straight line from the end of QE to lack of growth in the US. That would ignore what is also going on in the rest of the world that has an impact on US businesses.

    Imagine a situation when oil prices were low and the US dollar was weak. What do you think that might do for US businesses outside of whatever impact the FOMC actions might have?

    In an increasingly inter-connected world that strong USD makes it very hard for US companies to grow real revenues and also makes domestic business less competitive.

    The answer? In China's case they're devaluing their currency to help improve the economy and to make their businesses more competitive with lower cost nations, such as Viet Nam.

    I think the FOMC should be lauded for steering us over the past 6 years out from the abyss and avoiding getting too hot or too cold.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    This market is one where it's not just a ping pong game from day to day, but this afternoon was another in a series of mid-day large reversals over the past few weeks.

    Macau may be a better bet than trying to figure out just what is going to impact this market and in what direction.

    No, never been to Macau. My guess is that isn't going to be on my list of places to go in the next few years, but it must really be something just to sit and watch some of those people at the tables. The intensity must dwarf that in Vegas these days.
    Aug 19, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Thank you. That's very kind of you.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    DD, DOW and MON have very similar market caps.

    DOW and DD are virtually identical and it might be hard to justify swapping one out for the other.

    The problem with putting MON in for DD, unless it has a 2 for 1 split, is that it would double the impact of DuPont on the index at a time when that sector is getting less and less representative of the US economy.
    Maybe those editors at Dow Jones need to come up with a new name and replace the word "Industrials"
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Because of the options market being overly optimistic when it has come to earnings for some of those more volatile names, you may have noticed that I've been more often suggesting the sale of puts after earnings, in the event of a large price drop.

    Even with some of these historically volatile positions ahead of earnings, it's been hard to find that 1% ROI at strikes outside the implied moves, as the premiums have been so weak. That's caused me to be much more of bystander heading into earnings and more likely to be active after the fact.
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    Thanks. I think I mis-interpreted your comment ".....but at $1 it would be hard to pass up..." to mean that you were already seeing a $1.00 premium at the time. I could only find a $1 premium for the $11 strike.

    Companies don't typically schedule their warnings, but I can't see any other events that would account for the premiums being seen.

    With that dividend coming after the expiration of the September 2015 options, if I were to add new shares and sell calls, I think I would forgo the dividend for the assignment. Otherwise you're faced with owning shares again heading into earnings, which are right before the expiration of the October 2015 contracts. In that case, I would probably look at the November 2015 contract (when it becomes available) in an effort to lock in some premium and provide an additional month for price recovery in defense against an earnings drop.
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    You're absolutely right.

    It's just all part of that natural cycle of ups and downs and why King Solomon was very wise to realize that no matter what was in the air "This too shall pass."
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Thanks, I was thinking about weaving in some bovine scatology reference, as well, but had a hard enough time keeping the single metaphor straight.

    I like your stock selections for the week.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Hard to dispute that, but as long as the news was good, very few were questioning the validity of the data coming from China and were happy to go along for the ride.

    What may be the real problem is that the government's 20 years of expansion may have achieved too little and spread to too few, to create an economy that could sustain growth, even at much lower levels.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment