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George Acs  

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  • That Was The Crash, Dummy [View article]
    The comment was simply that; a comment. It was made by a reader who was suggesting what strategy worked for him.

    You can leave it up to the editors whether that would be an appropriate basis for an article, but to belittle a reader for expressing his opinion in the comments to someone else's article and deigning to know what his circumstances may be, is a bit much.

    I would like to see some data that "out-thinking" the market is a strategy, particularly since the market has neither a thought process nor predictability.

    Now to use your own experience using an investment in silver as an example to live by is laughable. That is not a strategy, it is speculation. or all of your "reading, studying fundamentals and developing an understanding of financial history" you apparantly skipped the part about diversification, in addition to other things.

    What you got was a serendipitous occurrence and what it gave you was a sense of arrogance. You have further taken your personal experience and contrasted that to a general application of a strategy. For all you know, the individual who made the comment about how DCA suited his investment needs has out-performed your portfolios, but that doesn't appear to be a thought that you would remotely consider.
    May 27, 2013. 12:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shades Of 1999 [View article]
    That is the quandary, even if not investing new money, but rather recycling money after closing positions.

    Either way, staying on the sidelines or climbing aboard, it's a little more nerve racking than usual.
    May 19, 2013. 09:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    Walking 30 minutes has incredible health benefits. Was that your point?
    Dec 12, 2012. 04:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    No, it's just that there will be so much pressure for another new product home run that the expected good sales and new markets have already been discounted.

    The idea of tax selling is an annual thesis, perhaps more heightened now because of the unknowns in the upcoming tax code, but typically those theses aren't borne out in reality.

    In fact, the counter argument is that those having purchased Apple shares in the 600-700 range are holding off to sell until after the new year, in the chance that the capital loss rate will be higher, as well.

    Believe it or not, there are people sitting on paper losses from Apple
    Dec 12, 2012. 04:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Don't Understand Dividends [View article]
    May I suggest that you pair your remaining Old Coke with some Twinkies.
    Nov 19, 2012. 06:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Reason To Smile [View article]
    I often like to say that it's futile trying to apply a rationale thought process to try and understand something that itself is irrational.

    I was of the opinion that there was absolutely no reason for the market to have had an unchecked upward climb. I wasn't necessarily arguing against the market going higher, just the manner in which it did. It did so without even a momentary pause. It did precisely the same during the first three months of this year.

    As a covered option writer, especially selling calls, I'm not entirely thrilled when movement is in a single direction. During that period of time when so many were decrying this market, calling it the "least respected rally," I found myself agreeing with the crowd.

    That's always a bad sign. I'm not certain why I didn't do as usual and think differently from the chorus.

    Suddenly, however, the chorus seems to be changing its tune and I am getting truly bullish for the first time in 2012 (we'll see how long that lasts).

    Like you, I revel in income derived from stocks, but I do so more with option related income. I don't care very much either about the bipolarity of the market, as long as it exhibits both sides on an regularly alternating basis.

    As far as government and the economy goes, the relationship between governmental action and outcome is so displaced in time that our minds are incapable of truly assigning blame or credit. I've often wondered how ancient mad came to understand what actions were prerequisite for child birth, given the 9 months time lapse between an action and an outcome.

    Bill Clinton is typically lauded as having been a good shepherd of the economy, but near the end of his final term the seeds were planted that came to roost under George Bush's first term, just as the last year of his term adversely impacted Obama. It's such a slow process and it takes so long to recognize real change that we forget what was responsible for the change.

    Of Obama wins a second term, I have no doubt that he will be considered a genius in a year or so, with regard to rescuing the economy. If Romney wins, he too would be considered a genius as he would be the one to benefit from the very slow moving tide that at some point will make itself felt.
    Oct 13, 2012. 11:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamental Or Technical? [View article]
    So you'd like me to do a psychological assessment of comments made by people that have nothing constructive to add?
    Jun 27, 2012. 05:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zuckville [View article]
    I have no idea of what any of that means, but the use of so many hyperlinks gives immediate credibility.

    Good luck on trades.
    May 17, 2012. 09:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Hope to hear from you when the dust settles.
    Mar 21, 2015. 04:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]

    It does seem that it keeps getting harder and harder to understand much of anything. Maybe logic is just over-rated, just as paying attention seems to not be of any use.
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can You Go? [View article]
    As it is, I hold too much energy positions right now, but am ready to start adding at these levels, but it is a real article of faith to do so.

    While it looks like "a good time to shop there," so too was it last week, the week before and the week before. We could just as easily be saying the same thing next week, the week after and the week after.
    Dec 13, 2014. 03:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turning Point [View article]
    Based on the past 4 weeks, there's a high degree of certainty that when the dust settles on the coming week either shorts or longs will agree with you.
    Oct 26, 2014. 09:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    I dare say that I likely understand the importance and functions of capital markets more than most, but you clearly have mis-interpreted its role in the current Herbalife saga and in general.

    That's the problem with being pedantic. You tend to lose sight of a bigger picture and focus on minutae, while believing that you have a proprietary right to an understanding of not only the situation at hand but the building blocks that constitute the myriad of issues under consideration

    As you have described yourself as a "forensic nut" I can understand how that is consistent with some of the zealotry expressed by others that also serves to diminish credibility.

    Zealots may be well intentioned, but history demonstrates that such zealotry begins to eclipse an objective grasp of reality and the deeper one gets the less likely they will be receptive to alternative points of view.

    In my case, my point of view shouldn't be terribly controversial. It has to do with attempting to manipulate markets. Opinion pieces can and do move markets. That is undeniable and it is reasonable to believe that on days where a stock moves significantly higher or lower in the absence of news, especially opposite in direction to its sector or the broader market, that opinion pieces, such as analyst ratings or even articles in Seeking Alpha may be the reason for the movement.

    When someone writes about 85 articles on the same topic over the course of 12 months, it is natural to question the motivation and not to so readily dismiss the impact of such actions, as you did in the follow-up comment.

    Insofar as Herbalife is not actively or currently competing for capital, after all, the capital allocate done in the secondary market at best has only an indirect impact upon the company, it isn't subject to the demands of those that do the allocations. At that point that Herbalife does find itself competing for such capital the market will decide whether there is sufficient opportunity to offset real or perceived risk.

    Further, you create many suppositions, that consistent with your positions are grounded in fact. Yes, capital must be finite, but it can also be growing and entirely adequate for the demand that greets it. However, even fraudulent enterprises may be productive and inject capital into the system. You, however, presume the opposite, that they are by definition "unproductive."

    Where in the world did you get that definition? It must be nice to live in a world where you get to define and then interpret. Self-fulfillment in such a manner is how people get to "bat 1.000."

    I hate to tell you this, but many productive enterprises are themselves funded by fraudulent enterprises and they create both demand for capital as well as introduce capital into the markets. That doesn't excuse the root actions, but it is a reality that you fail to recognize, because it undermines your faulty supposition.

    Unfortunately, you have assigned yourself the role of judge, jury and executioner, as typically is the case when zealotry is involved, as there is little use for due process and it gets in the way of the self-fulfillment that is so very important.

    So much more to discuss, but so little interest in doing so.
    Sep 16, 2014. 11:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    I believe that your comment further down in the thread, may give some valuable insight:

    "HLF -1.4% -28.0% -34.5% -42.3%

    see those minus signs... that is bad..."

    It is bad, unless you are a short seller. And then if you are a short seller and authoring an article every third business day for a year and making unsubstantiated statements, such as "earnings are the result of criminal activity," your credibility should rightfully be called into question.

    A reasonable person might wonder if those efforts are an attempt to manipulate share price. Credibility is not damaged solely by the quantity of articles written, as you suggest I had claimed and then further suggesting a vacuous analogy. It is further compromised by content, motivation, exaggeration and use of non-substantiated allegations.

    By the way, perhaps you might want to use a word other than "claims," then, to describe the position that Ackman et al have taken, as "claims:" are defined as:

    "stating or asserting that something is the case, typically without providing evidence or proof."

    Perhaps you intended the use of that specific word, knowing full well that evidence and proof of such assertions is still lacking.

    Sadly, that is at the crux of the issue and once again, you have unknowingly provided the insight.

    But, as you have pointed out, those "claims" have caused damage.

    My assertion is simply that unsubstantiated claims are a detriment to the market and are done for clear purposes that when proffered in a financial site have nothing to do with bringing benefit to a portion of society other than those short the stock.
    Sep 15, 2014. 02:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    There can be a difference between speaking "the Truth" and speaking your book.

    When there is a clear profit motive involved one has to question the motivation, particularly when the need to "speak the Truth" appears unusually fierce. Complicate that a bit by the notion that even reasonable people may disagree about what constitutes the truth and that other people are still waiting to make their judgment, but would prefer to do so on the basis of fact and not opinion.

    What you say has merit on the surface, except that you predicate it all by the conviction that Herbalife is a fraud. It may very well be, but it also may not be and I'm certain that far more capable people than most would imagine are investigating the issues that have been alleged.

    I absolutely don't disparage the need for the market to have short sellers. They are critical in the markets maintaining their liquidity, but I strongly oppose anyone's attempt to manipulate the market, whether on the short or long side.

    Whether you want to believe so or not, publishing an article every third business day that disparages or promotes any company with which you are not employed, but do have a long or a short position in, is nothing more than an attempt to manipulate share price. Hiding under the guise of protecting society, especially while writing on a financial website, is about as superficially transparent as one can get.
    Sep 12, 2014. 08:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment