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George Acs  

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  • The Fork In The Road [View article]
    The upside is that the XLE is not likely to go bankrupt, so it's easier to justify waiting for a return to some more reasonable levels, as opposed to doing so with a single stock that may never get to see the light of day again.

    I'm hard pressed to call your purchase an egregious mistake. The hypothesis behind your purchase may have been very sound, but it's not much different from people who get overwhelmed by a 500 year flood. Who expected it, even though you knew it was possible? I don't think anyone expected oil to tank as it did and for so long. The constellation of events leading to increased supply and decreased demand weren't really on anyone's radar screens.
    Nov 2, 2015. 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fork In The Road [View article]
    Well, that's one of the explanations that have been given in the past. No matter what you do, you won't be wrong.

    Wouldn't it be nice if life was like that all the time?
    Nov 2, 2015. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fork In The Road [View article]
    Thank you. My favorite part is week is trying to get an illustrative picture.
    Nov 2, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fork In The Road [View article]
    Snake oil salesman can just as easily be trying to convince you that the DJIA is going to 35000.

    I don't know which is more potent of a motivator; fear or greed, but there will forever be plenty of both to go around.
    Nov 2, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility, We Hardly Knew Ye [View article]
    Whoever came up with the expression "patience is a virtue," was so right, but it still doesn't make it any easier to exercise it, knowing that it's usually the right thing to do.
    Oct 26, 2015. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility, We Hardly Knew Ye [View article]
    Rose, it was an absolutely ridiculous sell off. The fact that the patients who were the most cachectic and the most likely to succumb to their underlying disease were the ones to suffer the worst outcomes, or "side effects" to treatment is part and parcel of disease outcomes for every serious and life threatening disease.
    Oct 26, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility, We Hardly Knew Ye [View article]
    Thank you.

    I agree that volatility is only on a break. Everything, good times and bad times are all ephemeral. It's just that the title "This current wave of volatility, we hardly knew ye," just wasn't as catchy to my ears.
    Oct 26, 2015. 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility, We Hardly Knew Ye [View article]
    Thank you.

    There's hardly a week that I don't think about $AAPL, but lately the premiums haven't been that attractive, especially since there hasn't been this much uncertainty over Apple product sales in a long time.

    Where Apple may interest me again is after earnings, if it goes even just a little lower, and then considering buying shares before the upcoming dividend. Those shares tend to do reasonably well in the short term right after the dividend.
    Oct 26, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility, We Hardly Knew Ye [View article]
    Thank you.

    Generally, whenever I refer to an extended weekly, I'm still looking at a short term contract. In this case it would be 2 or 3 weeks, as opposed to just a weekly.

    However, when volatility is high, I might consider a longer term contract in order to lock in a higher premium in forward weeks.

    When volatility is low the forward week premiums are usually lower and lower at the margins so as to make it less appealing to tie yourself down.

    But an individual may have different needs and temperament. I like to trade, so I'm happy taking my chances with a shorter term duration contract. For someone who doesn't want to trade as often or who also is looking to make some profit on the shares themselves, a longer term option may be just the thing, especially if there's also a good dividend involved.
    Oct 26, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Soar, Markets Orbit And Markets Crash [View article]
    Lest anyone gets overly confused, that trade is in the article for the week of October 19th ( ).

    The warning was that it seemed that the option market was really under-estimating the downside risk with VMW and that I'd only consider a trade if it was piling on after a post-earnings sell-off.

    I tried making that trade by selling the $55 puts when shares were down about $12, but pulled the trade as shares sunk even lower and there were no strikes below $55 for this week nor as potential rollovers for next week.
    Oct 21, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Running On Empty [View article]
    ARCO isn't that long ago in the past, although that's one sign of aging, when everything seems as if it was just yesterday and it wasn't.

    Someone asked me about Kawasaki Disease the other day and I told them that it was only just recently first described. I thought it was about 30 years ago, but it turns out that it was 50 years ago.

    Still seems like yesterday, either way.
    Oct 20, 2015. 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Running On Empty [View article]
    Good call. Sqarcasm sounds about right.

    My wife and I have been to an Italian restaurant in our neighborhood probably 75-100 times. It has the most authentic Neapolitan cuisine I've ever had outside of Italy. Just about everyone we know goes there again and again. We can't go without running into lots of friends, acquaintances and people we'd rather not see.

    The prices are very fair, the portions are pretty large and there is a great wine bar. The wait staff is always great and the owner is very involved in daily operations and quality control.
    When we have out of town guests, it's always the first place on our list.

    But when you go to Yelp, there are tons of really horrid reviews. They're nasty and don't reflect anything that we've remotely experienced, seen or over heard.

    The internet is great, but the anonymity and mis-representation just takes things down a few dozen notches (except for Ashley Madison. That's just fine as it is.)

    I applaud Amazon for pursuing legal redress. Now, it would be nice if Yelp didn't strong arm restaurants and could filter out those that can't offer objectivity.
    Or, you could just ignore it all together and trust your own instincts and friends for their advice, just like in the old days.
    Oct 20, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Running On Empty [View article]

    This past week's South Park was a great send up of YELP. The combination of anonymity, self-importance and falsified reviews should leave everyone with doubts about everything and anything.

    As @giorgiolb surmised, there was a bit of sarcasm in the comment. Either that, or there was some ordinary coincidence in its timing
    Oct 20, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Running On Empty [View article]
    Looking at the back and forth in interest rates, I don't know whether the bond market does have the smartest people, but they certainly are either undecided, fickle or opportunistic.

    As in stock trading, somewhere along the line, there has to be a relative loser in the thread of a trade, so even smart people can end up on the short side of the stick.

    As with lots of things in life, there can be some advantage to being a standout among an average crowd.

    I never understood bonds, anyway
    Oct 20, 2015. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Running On Empty [View article]
    Just as I was almost successful in getting that Texaco thing out of my mind after almost 30 years.

    Of course, I owned Texaco shares at the time of their bankruptcy.

    Sadly, I think that the only place where integrity survives is in the anonymity of social media, YELP and Amazon reviews.

    Other than IBM's Watson, none of us and none of our professions is capable of consistent application of integrity. And who knows how Watson has been programmed if it ever finds itself backed into a corner or simply testing the boundaries.
    Oct 19, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment