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  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    I have the same reflexive response to over the top volume. I look at yelling to get your point across the same is peppering your speech with profanities in order to make your point or get attention..

    There are probably better ways to express yourself with intelligence. If you need to shock or overwhelm there can't be too much substance.
    Jun 11, 2015. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    Believe it or not, political correctness isn't always going to be the reason people disagree with your opinion.
    Jun 10, 2015. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    It may be those treacherous times that precluded this week's illustrative graphic from being published, I suppose. There's nothing wrong with exercising caution.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    The smart bond folks had their timing off on the previous 2 runs higher, but they may be on the right side of the trade for the moment.

    It's Tuesday afternoon and I haven't made a single trade this week wondering what will give. At least the FOMC is next week, so something may pop then or maybe even sooner if this week's Retail Sales data finally does what we've been expecting all year.
    Jun 9, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    Absolutely. So let's see, you pay extra for having to transport the goods a shorter distance. You pay extra for not using yield enhancing products and you pay extra for allowing more of the product to wither away to natural predators.

    Sounds good to me. Isn't everyone willing to pay extra for not getting something? It's like having to pay to have your phone number not be listed.

    I think I should try to work a deal that has Seeking Alpha paying me to not write and not comment.
    Jun 9, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    I do see the word "PRO" in green on the header, but I think that has been there since the inception of the PRO program.
    Jun 9, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    But it is all a lab experiment, so whether you are a town or a gown, you can be excused for treating it a such.

    There are few, if any inviolate rules and the environment continually changes in ways no one had ever seen before.

    There has likely always been dissent amongst the Governors, but it was Bernanke who first tolerated, allowed and encouraged expression.

    Now if its real life experience that you think suits someone best to lead the Federal Reserve, who has had more than Richard Fisher? The problem is that he was often wrong. He was never boring, but he wasn't a very good barometer for anything. Prior to Ben Bernanke, Fisher, free thinker that he was, was kept on a very tight leash by Greenspan, after Fisher made a comment about rate hikes coming to an end soon.

    Trying to judge a Federal Reserve Chair on a prospective basis is hard to do. Some things are best left to hindsight.
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    You summarized that beautifully.

    We should always be subject to such messes.

    It's hard to predict what the final outcomes will be of Bernanke's policies, although at some point their reach will have expired, just as Greenspan's years no longer have direct influence on today's events.

    But it's pretty clear that Bernanke presided over a period that required decisive and creative action and he was just the right person for both. While it would have been nice to have seen the broader economy recover more quickly, the blows taken in 2007 and 2008 were much more mighty than we realized at the time.

    Add to that a reluctance by banks to engage in the basic business of banks and their slowness in infusing money back into the economy if looking for a reason for the pace of broader recovery. Bernanke did his part and did it well.
    Jun 9, 2015. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    Thanks.

    Even with that talk of 0.25%, pundits are getting the bologna slicer out of storage. It's sort of like 7 Minute Abs. There's always room for some refinement and improvement.
    Jun 8, 2015. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    I just noticed that the photo wasn't included in this article, but here it is

    http://bit.ly/1Iz8N4r

    What photoshop work?
    Jun 8, 2015. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    It's like a lot of things in life. The anticipation can be a killer, but once you get it over with you can move on in the realization that it wasn't really very bad.

    I agree. Get a rate hike done and add anecdotal evidence to supplement what may be suspect data. Most seem to agree that the economy is better than is being suggested by the GDP. It will be interesting to see if any good news is reflected in this week's Retail Sales
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    It's as hard to justify that Bernanke created a mess as it is to blame Greenspan for the market's plunge in 1987.

    Both inherited the policies of their predecessors and the dynamics of an economy reveal themselves extremely slowly, as do the impacts of policy.

    What is required is immediate and decisive action to be injected into a system that is far from understandable, despite basic tenets that are widely accepted.

    It's not unusual to see over-corrections resulting from policy decisions, simply because the effects of those decisions may take years to unfold and they may be instituted in incremental steps.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    Prior to Richard Fisher, who was then taken to the woodshed for some discipline, was there any Fed Governor who did anything other than parrot the Chair's dictums?

    For that matter, who truly understood the derivatives in question, at the time? Would Bernanke have understood potential strategies to deal with or prevent a depression had there not been an antecedent event 80 years earlier? Where is the historical precedent to have understood the particular threats posed by CDOs and other products?

    A position of leadership brings out the best in many and sometimes the worst. I think that in Yellen's case, it will be the best and I believe she is well suited to navigate the Federal Reserve through what can be a challenging transition period. Having Stanley Fischer as a resource, regardless of what side of the argument he may favor, can serve as a benefit or a detriment, depending on the public positions taken that can either support or undermine policy decisions in the future.
    Jun 8, 2015. 11:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    Thanks.

    Lately I'm getting some more comfort out of those dividend paying positions at least as a little adjunct to the low premiums that have been persisting for so long.
    
    Noble has been a good trade in 2015. I don't think it has too much downside risk, unless that dividend becomes hard to maintain. The payout ratio is above 200%, so I'm not too sure where they're getting the money to support that kind of dividend.
    Jun 8, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen Gets Tied Up [View article]
    If that's all there is then all you would likely see is an initial and short term negative market reaction, followed by the realization that a rate increase reflected good news in the economy.

    But I don't think anyone has a 3 year range crystal ball. Barely a week ago you wouldn't have predicted the spike in interest rates, just as over the past 3 months the bond market poorly timed their prediction of near term interest rates. That crystal ball gets awfully clouded very easily.
    Jun 8, 2015. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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