Seeking Alpha

George Acs

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  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    The high marks given to iOS 7 by reviewers and consumers makes the future of the iPhone franchise more secure and puts a halt to the apathy that had surrounded the product for a while.

    Funny how all of this unfolds with Blackberry in the background gasping for continued existence. Especially when you consider how derisively Blackberry had dismissed the then new iPhone as being only a marginal player in its target market.

    What they thought of as a mere toy has become indispensable for so many.
    Sep 23 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    If you look at enough charts, or simply follow stocks long enough, you realize that most every stock provides multiple opportunities over time in the event that you were unable to capitalize at any given time.
    Sep 23 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    Most often it is all about luck, not necessarily experience. Anyone can have a thesis that sounds good, but it's only in hindsight that you can make any assessments.

    Even then, never discount luck.
    Sep 23 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    It's not too likely that a CEO would admit to channel stuffing. The SEC frowns on that sort of thing.

    The beauty of releasing the product just a few days before the end of the quarter and then reporting earnings relatively early into the following month is that channel stuffing would not likely be detected on the basis of distributor returns.
    Sep 23 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    While you can't really draw too many conclusions from opening day sales, unless their well below projections, it was a positive day.

    However, what needs to be filtered out is how many upgrades, how many new customers and how many trade-ins.

    Beyond that there will be about 10 days of data that will hit the next quarterly earnings report that is due is just a month. No matter what, history shows there will be a large move in one direction or another. At the current trading level the floor is about $425 and about $500 on the upper end. EIther way, this stock should be interesting over the next few weeks.
    Sep 22 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    I had some shares assigned on Friday and rolled others over for the week, as the premium reflected a very bullish option buyer market.

    Due to the S&P 500 re-balancing I think you may be able to add shares at a discount to Friday's pricing (prior to the last hour selling) and I'm hoping to replace my assigned shares. However, I'm likely to revert to form and immediately sell options on them.
    Sep 22 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    JTF3D, the one thing that I truly believe is that the cycles that you watch as a buy and hold investor that are never capitalized upon are all lost opportunities and represent time that will never be recovered. It is lost forever, as is all time.

    However, even if you are a trader and get it wrong you''ve only lost money. That can always be recovered. The minimal amount of time ventured in the trading process adds to education and experience and has value in its own right.
    Sep 22 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    Throughout the history of investing there have been lots and lots of high fliers.

    What there hasn't been throughout history is lots and lots of people who have become wealthy from investing in high fliers. That's because greed gets in the way of taking profits for so many. When the froth ends it very often ends suddenly and those paper profits disappear.

    Your use of quotation marks around the word profit were most definitely appropriate.

    Whether the current street favorites will take tapering as the time to do what most have done in the past and begin a quick and precipitous fade is anyone's guest. Personally, I don't think that will be the catalyst.

    While you're absolutely right that fundamentals have all but disappeared as a factor, a single big miss from among the high profile earnings challenged companies will cause some contagion among that cohort of gravity defying stocks.
    Sep 18 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    So on a day like today (Wednesday 9/18) when Apple is 2.5% higher at $466 and the market is lower, do you suddenly change your thesis that Apple is a strong stock, whereas two days earlier it was a weak stock, by your reasoning?

    Shifting theses and feet in the sand are a sure way to see your wealth erode.
    Sep 18 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    To me it's incredulous that you can have two well regarded technicians looking at precisely the same data points and come up with wildly different interpretations.

    That's supposed to be a tool that you can rely upon?

    In medicine issues of sensitivity, specificity and false positive and negative rates are part of every analysis of whether a proposed diagnostic tool has any value. Technical analysis is filled with false negatives, false positive and lack of overall reliability.

    Even in hindsight there are countless scenarios that are never presented because they fail to validate a thesis. Charting and technical analysis is akin to alchemy, except not as predictable in its outcome.
    Sep 18 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    Thanks.

    You're clearly onto something, because I did include Apple in this week's regular article, again not because of the product lines, but because of the opportunities at this strike price. Although I suppose there are page views, too. If those pennies can add up in option sales I gues they can from page views, too.

    When I had written articles that were critical of Apple's high price and suggested that taking profits was a good idea, I also distinguished between the stock and the products. You can have a great product yet the time may not be right for the shares. It was amazing at how vocal and emotional people were, completely ignoring the positive comments about the products and telling me just how great the products were, so the stock would be, as well.

    I agree with you. For me, the Windows platform has been everything I've wanted. Ive gone from the days of setting up DOS networks 30 years ago to Macintoshes in the workplace (because they were easier to teach to a generation that was still technologically illiterate, until WIndows appeared) and back to WIndows.
    Sep 18 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    I often said that there's not enough financial based writing that is directed toward the spirit of Yul Brynner and all that he could teach us.
    Sep 17 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    Because my ego says so, I'll assume that you were referring to my comment. If not, I don't want to know.
    Sep 17 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    Pithy expressions, such as the over-used "falling knife" have no practical value except in hindsight. No one knows where the floor is and while you suggest both waiting for the bottom and choosing the path of least resistance, you doubly compound the vacuousness by using expressions that seek to be simple aphorisms, but don't have basic validity to become such.

    No one knows where the bottom is, other than in hindsight. Once that bottom is reached the path of least resistance can just as easily be the bounce from the stored up energy resulting from the drop.

    Whether you have minimal experience investing or thousands of trades, predicting isn't a skill that you will ever develop because even the most studied of technical indicators have poor predictive capability.

    It's not a question of being brave, it's a question of opportunity based upon past history. The near term downside to Apple is about $425 and the near term upside is $500. In that range there are many opportunities to own shares and sell calls and wait for a definitive move. For me, Apple is no different from any other stock that has suffered, what I believe to be an unwarranted and exaggerated fall following the interpretation of news. They tend to recover nicely.
    Sep 17 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Bought Apple [View article]
    On the basis of a single day or two, or on the basis of a single short loved catalyst (like Summers) I don't make any judgment regarding the character of the stock if it moves in a direction opposite that which the market is moving.

    If you want to see perfect examples of poor sensitivity and poor specificity they can be found in isolating on specific stocks and attempting to define correlations with the market over short periods of time or during exaggerated movements in either the stock or the market
    Sep 17 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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