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George Anast, M.D.

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  • 10 Reasons Arcam AB Remains A Strong Buy [View article]
    hahojson, Happy Easter!! I read the material you suggested. It sure is a privilege to be acquainted with smart guys!! I was unaware of his publication, but devoured the material. Very interesting and informative. All the best, and glad to see you here after GVI lit the fire again..gta
    Apr 18 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Arcam AB Remains A Strong Buy [View article]
    This is a good article, GVI. I have to hand it to the MF bunch. The reports are well written and well balanced.

    The outlook remains good and I agree with both the MF and GVI: this stock is risky, and best suited to the long term investor at this point. I can see the stock slowly inching back toward its highs, but any meteoric moves are unlikely in the near to medium term. Happy Easter to all.
    Apr 18 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Debunked, Part 2: Industries [View article]
    You have a point. Drucker is dead, and i don't feel so well myself Please see my reply to Glen Abrett. His comment is similar to yours, and I have to reconsider a bit.
    Apr 17 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Debunked, Part 2: Industries [View article]
    Glen, in general you are correct, particularly your last paragraph. I use Drucker's formulation in the longer view. The computer was up and working in 1950, but is took another forty years before it was ubiquitous and indispensable. The same goes for 3d. It's taking hold now, but it will be another x number of years until it is as indispensable as the computer. But you have a very good point. Drucker had no idea how fast things would become useful. He's not around to modify his view, but if he was, he's smart enough to see that his time span would have to be significantly contracted. Maybe we can come up with some sort of variation on Moore's Law having to do with the rate at which change is adopted. Abrett's Law: Um, has a nice sound !!
    Apr 17 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Arcam AB Remains A Strong Buy [View article]
    I also appreciate your comments, Andreas. Oddly enough, not long ago I mentioned Materialise to GVI. When I read about the company I was impressed and suggested to GVI that a good position in the software end of the business makes sense. It's easy to get carried away by hardware, slick cabinets, beautiful escutcheons and flossing lights: but it doesn't work without software !! Thanks again.
    Apr 17 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Arcam AB Remains A Strong Buy [View article]
    GVI, again you have summarized the ARCAM issue in masterly fashion. Your analysis is very complete and well targeted at matters both intrinsic and extrinsic to the company. Congratulations on a job very well done !!

    I do wonder about the acquisition issue. ARCAM is profitable with a very good moat and major possibilities ahead. Rather than being acquired, they may elect to be an acquirer. They seem well funded and eminently self contained. They will have to see how things play out over the coming months, or years, and even though they are going it alone, there may be "an offer to good to be refused."

    I remain long the stock and have no plans to change my position. Over the next twelve months I can see a share price of $50, or maybe more, if they consummate the volume deals recently hinted. There is plenty of risk in this stock and I'm certainly not advocating a purchase. Andreas may have been wise to step out: He fits the old proverb,"Alte Füchse gehen schwer in die Falle."
    Apr 17 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Debunked, Part 2: Industries [View article]
    Your comments are very helpful and illustrate what I referred to in my earlier comment. The possibilities for 3d are enormous, and the adjunctive applications will likely eclipse the idea of using the process for mass production. Well stated and very informative.
    Apr 17 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Debunked, Part 2: Industries [View article]
    Andreas, your article is having the same effect as slamming the door when leaving the dog lab.
    Apr 17 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Debunked, Part 2: Industries [View article]
    Andreas, you have great insight. I could't agree with you more.

    Smart people have been figuring out how to make things cheaply, and in volume, since the dawn of the industrial revolution. 3d is just one of the latest of those "break-throughs." Peter Drucker was fond of pointing out that it takes about 40 years for any thing new, and of real value, to be generally accepted. If so, 3d has another 20+ years to go. For now, it's rapid prototyping and low volume fabrication of complex metal parts made without the need for tooling. But, as I said, there are a lot of smart people out there. Who knows what they will come up with.

    As far as some of the comments already made on your excellent article, I will close with an old German proverb."Wem nicht zu raten ist, dem ist auch nicht zu helfen."
    Apr 17 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3-D Printer Arcam AB Will Give An Update On Their New Fast EBM Project Soon [View article]
    Today's order from China is a repeat from an established owner. Good sign. The stock is up today in Sweden and the U.S.. Things seem to be in "steady state", and that's good!
    Apr 4 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations Are Higher Than Most Think - Risks Are To The Downside [View article]
    Captain Blair know full well the importance of seeking a well defended, safe place from which to direct his command when danger threatens. Here, he is taking a page out of his family history, remembering the immortal words uttered by his great great grandfather, Admiral Blair, at the battle of Manila Bay. "You may fire when you are ready, Gridley…..I will be down in the chain locker."
    Mar 27 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations Are Higher Than Most Think - Risks Are To The Downside [View article]
    Captain Blair makes good sense. It's been a good voyage so far, but there are a few clouds on the horizon and the glass has become unsteady. Probably a good idea to stow all the loose items on the deck, see that the lines are properly coiled and secured, check the weather again, and if the wind picks up be ready to reduce sail.
    Mar 26 05:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3-D Printer Arcam AB Will Give An Update On Their New Fast EBM Project Soon [View article]
    Looks like all the 3d stocks are in the barrel. All the hype about HP coming in, is just that. Short interest in 3D is high, 28M shares +. SSYS only 2M +. I suspect this is as much a push by the shorts as anything else. The process is great and gaining acceptance all over the place. Cautious optimism is the order of the day.

    Arcam is quiet. Orders are dribbling in, but still slow. It would be nice to see three or four a month, but the year is young. We have three more quarters to go. The best sign would be to see companies ordering their second or third machines. Things are picking up world-wide. Arcam's turn will come….hopefully!
    Mar 24 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3-D Printer Arcam AB Will Give An Update On Their New Fast EBM Project Soon [View article]
    I agree completely. Nahojson. When hip replacements first came out the company I dealt with got caught up in the craze for investment casting. This technique works well, produces exactly sized parts and is very productive. Unfortunately it was very unreliable, or at least the company didn't stress test the parts as they should have. Many that were implanted broke. Getting out the broken pieces was very difficult and I ended up with some pretty bad limps. After the second break I quit using the parts and the company went back to forgings. The American gun company, Ruger, has really perfected the process and now make virtually all their guns by the investment process…except the barrels (I think).

    For years, and probably still, hip prostheses made of vitallium, a cobalt, chrome, molybdenum alloy were cast because of the difficulty of working this metal. The process was good as breakage was very rare. ARCAM is able to use this alloy. It is still very reliable in the body and has a low coefficient of friction with polyethylene. The Titanium/Aluminum alloy that DiSanto/Arcam uses for the hip has to use a vitallium, or maybe a stainless steel ball attached to the stem. by a Morse taper, to articulate with the plastic. Titanium and polyethylene are bad news. That was learned the hard way here in the states. The coefficient of friction is terrible and the plastic wears rapidly.

    The mechanical consistency of EBM produced items is obviously one of the big benefits. Four machines in the same shop will produce, ideally, identical products. ARCAM has to confront throughput time, build size and surface finish. As these issues are solved the process will really take hold. Nahojson, I'm an old man, too, but I would like to live long enough to see if we were both right. All the best for you, me and the stock…George
    Mar 21 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3-D Printer Arcam AB Will Give An Update On Their New Fast EBM Project Soon [View article]
    Casting has been around a long time and is very efficient both from the standpoint of time and cost. Note the ability of the Italians to produce cylinder heads in high volume at a very competitive price. EBM will probably not replace this technology in the near term, but EBM can make intricate parts in one piece that may require the assembly of several pieces make by conventional casting. The ability to make complex parts without tooling is where EBM will dominate. And, of course, don't discount the Swedes. They are an inventive and entrepreneurial bunch that may come up with a mass production variation that takes out most all the competition: but not tomorrow. We have to remember that additive manufacture is in its infancy. As in the case of children, who knows what it will look like when it grows up!
    Mar 19 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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