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George Chadwick

 
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  • Thursday Options Update: HGSI, MSTR, INTC, FXI, EFA, AA, AVP, RDC, & PLL [View article]
    MSTR added to model portfolio last weekend.

    Blog: Maximize401k.wordpress...
    Oct 31 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Worth $80 [View article]
    Yep, "even a stopped clock is right twice a day." The William O'Neil methodology pays very little attention to PE, except in the opposite direction compared to the author of this article. "The average P/E of the best winners over the last fifteen years at the initial buy point prior to their huge price increases was 31 times earnings. These P/Es went on to expand more than 100% to over 70 times earnings as the stocks significantly increased in price." (Investors.com)

    Blog: Maximize401k.wordpress...

    On Oct 25 01:22 PM Mikael wrote:

    > First of all, thanks for a fun to read article. I have some questions
    > and thoughts.
    >
    > Over the last 5-10 years, when would your models have told you to
    > buy and sell Apple? Could you add some charts for that?
    >
    > You see, I would like to see if any of the models you use in your
    > article can predict the Apple stockprice with any accuracy (greater
    > than 50% of the time). Only then will you know if you can actually
    > rely on any of them. Same thing goes for Cramer's model. When during
    > the last 5-10 years did it predict when to buy or sell AAPL correctly?
    >
    >
    > Throwing numbers around is like you said: entertainment or a commercial.
    > And that's why I really would like to see you go the extra mile on
    > this one, to figure out which model would have made the most money
    > predicting Apple's stock price.
    Oct 27 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ten Products that Boomed During Recession [View article]
    GMCR added to model portfolio Sep 16, 2009. Two big price surges since (separated by 2 weeks). Wonderful write-up Rick!

    Blog: Maximize401k.wordpress...
    Oct 21 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall [View article]
    AONE (Li-ion company) - which I mentioned in an above comment last weekend is current "ripping to the upside" (wow, sounds like the late 1990's, doesn't it!). Anyway, now trading at 24.50.
    Oct 19 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall [View article]
    On Oct 17 06:10 PM Tekton wrote:

    > Max 401, you made the same point. The forseeable future is whatever
    > the time frame to work out the problems with the lithium battery,
    > and secure a dependable, economically feasible supply of lithium.
    > Meanwhile the nickel batteries can be augmented and further improved.
    >

    Thanks Tek. It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.

    Maximus
    Oct 19 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall [View article]
    In the mid-1990's the promise of hydrogen fuel-cells were all the rage. Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), which is in that business, went public in early 1999 near $30, and in the first quarter of 2000 shot up to a high of $145. The first quarter of this year it was trading for 85 cents.

    A123 Systems (AONE) went public at $17 last quarter, and went to a high of $28.20., closing this week at 23.52. They are in the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries business. How sustainable this business will be, time will tell.

    Boone Pickens (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...) invested a couple of billion U.S. dollars in quixotic windmills (not the romantic kind), and his net worth went from about $3 billion to approx. $1 billion (see pickensplan.com).

    Tekton, rather than ranting, could you please provide a reference re: your assertion, "Toyota has already made it quite clear that they will stay with the Ni batteries for the forseeable future." Thanks.

    Perhaps you may not have read the last paragraph of the post: <<But Toyota notes there are still some problems to be overcome before lithium-ion batteries are ready for prime time--at least in cars like the Prius. One is that the batteries have a dangerous tendency to catch fire. The second is that the life span of a lithium-ion battery in an application like the Prius can't yet match that of a NiMH battery. But neither of these problems seems insurmountable, as Toyota estimates lithium-ion batteries might be used in the Prius in as little as two or three years. For now, however, Toyota stands by the durability of its NiMH battery packs. And it doesn't plan on selling many replacements any time soon.>>
    Oct 17 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall [View article]
    The main "takeaway" I got from this article had to do with "lithium-ion batteries" which I don't think was mentioned in the above comments. If you have not done so, just compare the size of a lithium-ion camera battery for a camera to the "old" style camera batteries (3+ yrs ago). Of course, miniaturization necessitates this.

    The Toyota Prius, for instance, uses a Nickel-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) type of battery. The second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. See the top paragraph - the difference is more like 85% smaller for a camera battery.

    Buying a Prius is probably a not so good investment because the technology will become outdated relatively quickly. Toyota says the cost of nickel has increased threefold in the past few years, largely because China is buying lots of it to make stainless steel. Also, lithium-ion batteries offer a higher power density that would allow a similarly powerful battery to be smaller and lighter.

    But Toyota notes there are still some problems to be overcome before lithium-ion batteries are ready for prime time--at least in cars like the Prius. One is that the batteries have a dangerous tendency to catch fire. The second is that the life span of a lithium-ion battery in an application like the Prius can't yet match that of a NiMH battery. But neither of these problems seems insurmountable, as Toyota estimates lithium-ion batteries might be used in the Prius in as little as two or three years. For now, however, Toyota stands by the durability of its NiMH battery packs. And it doesn't plan on selling many replacements any time soon. (see consumerguideauto.hows.../ )
    Oct 17 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Greed, Regulation, Lehman, The Financial Industry [View article]
    On Oct 16 08:41 AM john s. gordon wrote:

    > as the good book says, gluttony is one of the 7 deadlies.
    > let;s hope the politicians in the federal village are listening to
    > what you have to say.

    The "Good Book" does not appear to have the word "gluttony" anywhere in it but it is probably useful to look up the word "excess" which I think applies to greed, wantonness, too much eating, intemperance.

    "Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye make clean the outside of the cup and of the platter, but within they are full of extortion and excess." (Matthew 23:25 KJV) Bible.com
    Oct 17 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carbo Ceramics: Value Plus Volatility [View article]
    Nice pick for a buy and hold (looking at it now!) Wonderful analysis Tom. Thanks.
    Oct 15 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Healthcare Information Technology Drivers [View article]
    Forbes, Oct 12: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 allotted $787 billion to improve education, spruce up infrastructure and shore up energy reserves, all while priming the economic pump.

    QSII: This Irvine, Calif., outfit sells software that manages electronic medical records. Should get a shot in the arm from the $20 billion in medical records subsidies enacted in last winter's stimulus legislation.
    Oct 14 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Healthcare Information Technology Drivers [View article]
    See va.gov/ (U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs) - digitizing medical records has helped transformed this erstwhile dinosaur into a model of efficiency in many respects.
    Oct 14 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling Now [View article]
    Great info, and interesting concepts, esp. shorting the USD against commodity producing countries, such as AUD & NOK (Norway the biggest gas producer in the world, did not know that!).

    Blog: Maximize401k.wordpress...
    Oct 14 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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