Seeking Alpha

George Chadwick

View as an RSS Feed
View George Chadwick's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Plug-In Vehicles: The First Great Fraud of the New Millennium [View article]
    In the 2009 book: Plug-In Electric Vehicles: What Role for Washington? (David Sandalow, editor) - the advocates of plug-ins (& we're not talking about Glade Plug-Ins!) seem to be counting on "advances in battery technology." Just plain old cost-benefit analysis: extra cost of about $8,000 per vehicle versus the supposed savings on "fuel" of $1.75 per gallon (assuming a current average price per gallon of $2.50), your break-even would be about 4500 gallons of gasoline. If you drive like I do (well over 20,000 miles per year) that would take about 57 months, or 4.76 years to break even. And that doesn't even take into consideration that I would have to stop every 40 miles to plug it in for 8 hours! I'd be better off with a moped (except in the winter, burrr!)

    And in the news: KB Home, a large US residential builder, is offering its new home customers pre-wired garages ready for plug-in cars. --Well, in cities like Pheonix builders still can't get a loan to build a new home. It may take another year to absorb the excess from THAT mess.

    Which brings me to another point: perhaps the first great fraud of the new millennium would be "toxic assets" and the complicated bonds all those home mortgages were packaged into that almost brought down the global economy. See: The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, by Michael Lewis (of Liar's Poker fame) that just came out. But probably The Greatest Trade Ever by Gregory Zuckerman is a better book overall, and it came out first.
    Mar 16 06:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freaked-Out Friday: Has CNBC Gone Too Far? [View article]
    And speaking of the current sentiment, on Thursday night the Seeking Alpha home page theme and graphics were exceedingly bearish, and there was even one graphic of a black hole, an abyss. The next day was a rip-snorting bear trap rally-back.
    May 22 02:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Decline Develops Exactly as Expected [View article]
    I posted a couple of Market Indicator charts of the McClellan Oscillator and the High vs. Low ratio. Draw your own conclusions, but being short overnight could be very dangerous at these levels. Posted under EminiXX or the $SPY thread.
    Mar 16 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: Come for the Real Estate; Stick Around for Popcorn and Flicks [View article]
    MarketGrader currently has a SELL rating on Reading International Inc. (RDI), based on a final overall grade of 27.8 scored by the company's fundamental analysis. Reading International Inc. scores at the 22nd percentile among all 5736 U.S. listed equities currently followed by MarketGrader. Our present rating dates to August 7, 2010, when it was downgraded from a HOLD. Relative to the Movies & Entertainment sub-industry, which is comprised of 33 companies, Reading International Inc.'s grade of 27.8 ranks 19th. The industry grade leader is Imax Corp (IMAX) with an overall grade of 80.6. The stock, up 22.42% in the last six months, has outperformed both the Movies & Entertainment group, down 4.98% and the S&P 500 Index, which has returned 4.88% in the same period.
    Nov 1 06:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall [View article]
    The main "takeaway" I got from this article had to do with "lithium-ion batteries" which I don't think was mentioned in the above comments. If you have not done so, just compare the size of a lithium-ion camera battery for a camera to the "old" style camera batteries (3+ yrs ago). Of course, miniaturization necessitates this.

    The Toyota Prius, for instance, uses a Nickel-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) type of battery. The second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. See the top paragraph - the difference is more like 85% smaller for a camera battery.

    Buying a Prius is probably a not so good investment because the technology will become outdated relatively quickly. Toyota says the cost of nickel has increased threefold in the past few years, largely because China is buying lots of it to make stainless steel. Also, lithium-ion batteries offer a higher power density that would allow a similarly powerful battery to be smaller and lighter.

    But Toyota notes there are still some problems to be overcome before lithium-ion batteries are ready for prime time--at least in cars like the Prius. One is that the batteries have a dangerous tendency to catch fire. The second is that the life span of a lithium-ion battery in an application like the Prius can't yet match that of a NiMH battery. But neither of these problems seems insurmountable, as Toyota estimates lithium-ion batteries might be used in the Prius in as little as two or three years. For now, however, Toyota stands by the durability of its NiMH battery packs. And it doesn't plan on selling many replacements any time soon. (see consumerguideauto.hows.../ )
    Oct 17 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion - The Future Isn't In BB10, It's In Mobile Payment [View article]
    Thanks. Sort of like a "cigar butt" that might have at least one puff left in it! I'm not a techie per se, but I'm certainly an avid follower of certain tech trends as time permits. And I'm eagerly anticipating the outcome of BB10, and the implications you bring up are very intriguing. Thanks again for the article....really seems to be out of the box thinking. Keep up the good work.
    Jan 22 07:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion - The Future Isn't In BB10, It's In Mobile Payment [View article]
    Great point!
    Jan 18 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion - The Future Isn't In BB10, It's In Mobile Payment [View article]
    Thanks for your contribution, and welcome to the contributor community!

    Wilson, as a "value" and "margin of safety" guy, I'm confused as to why you were even looking at this company.

    In my "instablog" post introduction in December 2012 (here at SeekingAlpha) I used RIMM as the PERFECT example of how the big money is often all about Trend Following and not fundamentals. I had done an in-depth interview with Michael Covel in that article (blog post), who is the Trend Following/Turtle Trader guru.

    My prop trader (wife) has been trading this from the 9.00 area, and we did very well. We are scaling out of some premarket at the 16.00 area (hey, we're human!)
    Jan 18 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VeriFone (PAY): FQ3 EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $493M (+56% Y/Y) misses by $5M. Shares -13.8% AH. (PR[View news story]
    $PAY PAY Selling probably way overdone, look to buy tomorrow.
    Sep 5 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Investors To Take Back Our Streets. Here's How [View article]
    You state or seem to imply that volatility is high, but the VIX went from over 40 last year to below 15 this summer. It is interesting that we seem to be climbing a mostly Eurozone-induced wall-of-worry, and yet the fear index is so low. Any feedback?

    I have been doing vertical spreads mostly on $100+ stocks like CRM and CF and GOOG, with nice gains the last couple of weeks despite the low VIX. It's tough trying to "beat the system" these days.

    (I would highly recommend http://bit.ly/sxQYag to learn about and practice vertical spreads, etc.)
    Aug 16 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Computing: One of the Biggest Investment Stories in the History of Business [View article]
    Thanks, good coverage. Out of the ones in your list, I'm marvelling at RAX which is pushing up in a very negative market from a perceived level of support.
    Jun 10 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Goldman Sachs Turning Into a 'Big Short'? [View article]
    I personally think there is a difference between contrarian investing and investing in a company involved in major litigation, esp. when government is doing the litigating.
    Jun 5 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Goldman Sachs Turning Into a 'Big Short'? [View article]
    We thought it was a good trade below 70 a couple of years ago and were all over it. The government report referenced was not released until April 2011 when the stock price had already moved down quite a bit. At this point I am rather agnostic about the stock price. However, a price trend is inherently after the fact, and I am correlating the price action to the news. It may well be a good entry point, but I really don't have an opinion at these levels when you look at the headline risk and uncertainty.
    Jun 5 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Goldman Sachs Turning Into a 'Big Short'? [View article]
    You covered a lot of important points. Believe me, I had to suppress tendencies toward cynicism and be as objective as possible.
    Jun 5 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mining, Coal, Railroads and Joy Global's Earnings [View article]
    I resubmitted this article because the editors did not publish it yesterday (the day before earnings came out), because of how timely and import these earnings are in the commodity space. They usu. publish right away, esp. for upcoming earnings that are relevant to a hot topic (in this case, commodities), so perhaps someone was asleep at the switch.
    Dec 15 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
87 Comments
27 Likes