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  • Algonquin Power: Diversified Canadian Utility With Mainly U.S. Revenues [View article]
    5+,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments.
    Oct 24 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Algonquin Power: Diversified Canadian Utility With Mainly U.S. Revenues [View article]
    rw,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. I will try not to make my comments seem garbled.

    The first three bullets are at the request of SA. In my opinion, these are meant to draw the reader into the article by reaping in one sentence a specific idea from the article. "Stealth" is meant to indicate their water exposure falls under the radar of most investors. After the acquisition, water uts may represent 10% of revenues and clock in at over $100 million in revenue. I would not think this is an irrelevant fact for investors.

    If the close relationship with EMRAF and the potential for an acquisition by Emera is not irrelevant as well, I apologize. I happen to think it is.

    Oct 24 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Algonquin Power: Diversified Canadian Utility With Mainly U.S. Revenues [View article]
    Rin,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. Glad you found the article useful.
    Oct 23 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Algonquin Power: Diversified Canadian Utility With Mainly U.S. Revenues [View article]
    seth,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. I think EGAS has assembled an interesting list of assets. However, I think The Old Man screwed the shareholders by orchestrating an overpriced deal with the Ohio uts and the more stupid purchase of JD Oil. I used to own JD Oil as a penny stock, and The Old Man was personally on the hook for a lot of personal guaranteed loans, that were paid off by EGAS.

    I like the new pipeline they have in Ohio, their growth positions in Maine and NC. Forget the opportunity for drilling in WY/MT, too expensive for them. Remember there is a little known regulation that allows new natural gas hookups to charge a competitive price to oil - which is huge. It exchanges increased infrastructure spending with higher profits. So far EGAS has not exercised the option to do so.

    I don't really know what Junior will do going forward. He was silly/stupid not to take AQUNF's offer. Shareholders would be better off with AQUNF's management than the relative inexperience of Jr. Junior is generating $10 mil in operating cash flow TTM and spending $25 mil on cap ex. I sold EGAS a while ago due to a huge dislike for The Old Man and now that he is gone, I am watching intently to see what happens. I can't believe The Old Man is actually suing the company - it is just icing on the cake and good riddance.

    I am sitting back watching with interest.
    Oct 23 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Nuke Reliability Worth An Additional $5 A Share [View article]
    rr,

    I think it is a few quarters too soon to be looking for an increase. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating cash flow is $5.7 bil, cap ex is $5.4 bil and the reduced dividend paid is $1.1 bil. this would make a TTM negative free cash flow minus divy paid of $800 million (which is higher than year-end 2013). I think with increased revenues/ocf from improving power prices, a divy increase could be in the cards next year, along with positive ocf - cap ex (or free cash flow) - divy for the first time since 2010. Keep in mind free cash flow minus divy was $2.1 bil in 2008 and $1.5 bil in 2009.

    I think a turn in free cash flow minus divy will be the tell-tale signal of higher dividends in the future.
    Oct 22 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Nuke Reliability Worth An Additional $5 A Share [View article]
    Hardog,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments.
    Oct 22 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Nuke Reliability Worth An Additional $5 A Share [View article]
    ultrabase,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments
    Oct 22 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Nuke Reliability Worth An Additional $5 A Share [View article]
    vinyl1,

    Thanks for your comments. EXC management gets bashed on most of these articles, so I wanted to post M* comments about management which has remained unchanged since last May:

    We give Exelon's management team a Standard Stewardship Rating. Since Exelon's earnings are at the mercy of wholesale power market ups and downs, we don't see much link between Exelon's recent underperformance and management's capabilities. We saw no significant strategic shift when president and CEO Chris Crane and executive chairman Mayo Shattuck III took over from former CEO and chairman John Rowe following the 2012 Constellation acquisition. Crane's biggest move so far is the $12 billion (including debt) Pepco acquisition that Exelon announced in April 2014, which will increase its share of regulated utilities earnings and dilute its consolidated exposure to wholesale power markets.

    We're particularly impressed by management's nuclear fleet operations, the one thing it can control. In his five years as COO, Crane led the generation division to world-class results. In 2013, Exelon recorded its highest capacity factor in at least the last five years at 94.1% and set a company generation record. With this operational excellence, management preserves the value-creation opportunities available if power prices rise.

    The Constellation acquisition reshaped the board along with the executive suite. The postmerger addition of four former Constellation board members and the retirement of five legacy Exelon board members, including Rowe, leaves only 2 of the 16 members who were on the board when Exelon formed in 2000. In addition, Shattuck has become the largest insider shareholder with 3.1 million shares or vested options. Rowe held 1.7 million shares or vested options as of year-end 2012. Given the more than 50% drop in Exelon's share price between 2008 and 2013, none of the stock options granted to executives since 2006 are in the money. We think this shows the strong tie between management compensation and shareholder interests.

    Hope you find this informative. Especially interesting to me is the lack of stock option resets while share prices collapsed. Option resets to me is a cardinal sin.
    Oct 22 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Nuke Reliability Worth An Additional $5 A Share [View article]
    rr,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. 2014 is expected to be a trough year for earnings, and this announcement of higher merchant power prices should help.
    Oct 22 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Nuke Reliability Worth An Additional $5 A Share [View article]
    wald,

    Thanks for the link. It is unfortunate to me the politicization of building gas pipelines in the Northeast as most voters are unaware of the connection between their electric bill and lack of gas pipeline capacity. I appreciate your reading and posting comments.
    Oct 22 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: 'Funny How Time Slips On Away' [View article]
    hardog,

    Glad you like the article and the link. Thanks for reading and posting your comments
    Oct 21 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: 'Funny How Time Slips On Away' [View article]
    rash

    The stocks that under performed the most, EXC and FE, have large PJM merchant power exposure and the weakness in power prices have stressed earnings over the past few years. EXC, for example, has a 4-yr ROIC of 13.42% from 2007 to 2011. This reduction in profitability and in Net ROIC is the driving factor of the stock's poor performance. SO has had construction write-offs that has driven short-term ROIC lower as well. IF these two were at more historic ROIC levels, the differential between those with higher and lower Net ROIC would be more larger.

    Net ROIC should be another fundamental for the tool box in the due diligence process. Fundamentally, I would prefer to own companies whose overall return on total capital exceeds the cost of the capital. There may not be a one to one correlation, but I think the analysis is very worth while.

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments
    Oct 21 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: 'Funny How Time Slips On Away' [View article]
    Robin,

    I'm pleased you liked the link. This is one of my favorite blues songs from years gone by and is under-listened-to.
    Oct 21 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: 'Funny How Time Slips On Away' [View article]
    al,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments.
    Oct 21 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: 'Funny How Time Slips On Away' [View article]
    spartnz,

    The math is pretty simple and the information is available with just a few clicks and a calculator. Here they are:

    ITC: 3-yr Avg M* ROIC 6.81 minus WACC 3.49 = Net ROIC 3.32
    AEE: 1.30 - 5.99 = -4.69
    AVA: 5.30 - 6.65 = -1.35
    NGG: 10.78 - 5.70 = 5.08

    Glad you found the article useful
    Oct 21 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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