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George Fisher  

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  • Don't Ignore The Weakness In Commodities [View article]
    johnny,

    EDV has an effective duration of 24.9. This means that for every 1% change in rates, EDV NAV should be expected to inversely change by 24.9%. So for every 1% increase in rates, EDV investors should expect a 24.9% decline in their NAV, and a 2% increase in rates would create a decline of almost 50%. Not a good holding if you think rates are on the way up. I prefer a ladder of BulletShares bond ETFs corporate and high yield with specific date maturities and low duration. More on duration can be found in an article from last July
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Ignore The Weakness In Commodities [View article]
    David and Joker,

    You may want to research Treasury Direct where Uncle Sam sells bonds directly to retail investors. Bonds are sold in increments of $100 and are kept in electronic form rather than traditional paper issued bonds. One factor may be the ability to buy new positions in the dates/coupon already owned as this program is for newly issued bonds.

    http://1.usa.gov/1VFim6c
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • P&G accepts Coty's $12.5B merger offer [View news story]
    ri,

    "I don't know what you call the stuff they now call lemonade, but it sure ain't lemonade"

    To sell it to the new yuppie crowd, it is called NFL - Natural Faux Lemonade.

    I am surprised you did not roll-up your stand with other neighborhood money-losing stands, go public as a REIT and re-lease the city-owned strip of land between the sidewalk and the street where the stands reside. I am sure there would be a large interest among the uneducated on this high income and future dividend growth IPO. Just not sure how it would rate with Ms Nose's sure-footed investment criteria.
    Jul 9, 2015. 03:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Rosenose [View article]
    Rose,

    I am pleased you are the topic of this article as I have found your comments on my articles to be insightful, well reasoned and presented, along with being informative. I am also appreciative you take time and interest to post comments as I find them to further the discussions.
    Jul 3, 2015. 06:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Own Utility Westar Energy [View article]
    Steve,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. I hope you find your move to be to your liking.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    wscott,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. EXC would not be on anyone's top dividend growth list based on its history. It had no increase in 2009-2012 and a cut in 2013.
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    High and Paul,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments.

    I think it is important for investors to overlay the chart above of electricity pricing with EXC's earnings and share prices. It is also important to appreciate EXC future is as tied to the commodity pricing of electricity as the major oil and gas companies are to their specific commodity.

    EXC cut its dividend mainly due to a collapse in electricity prices as shown above, which caused a 52% decline in eps, from $3.76 in 2011 to $1.82 in 2012. Management was pressurized by the credit agencies to cut the dividend as a means to shore up their balance sheet under this earnings decline, or the threat of a credit rating cut was on the table. A cut in ratings would hurt shareholders more through higher borrowing costs than a reduction in dividend.

    Just like all commodity producers, EXC's success is tied to the potential volatility of NE, Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Midwest electricity pricing. If the commodity cycle is in the bottoming phase, led by the realization that performance reliability needs to be rewarded with higher margins, then now could be a good time to build or add to a position in EXC.
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    rose,

    As always, thanks for reading and posting your comments.

    royk01,

    I think SO has a bit lower risk profile than EXC, mainly due to EXC's high exposure to commodity electricity pricing.
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    AndreP and buster

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. Glad you found the article and music to be worth your time. Now, while Time Magazine claims the best method to get a music tune out of your head is by chewing gum, I prefer to just replace it with another Ry Cooder tune.
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    DS,

    Liked your link. Thanks. I have not heard further on the issue of when the SMEPA contribution was due, but I would image it is at the end of the project. I don't believe management has gone public on how they plan to make up the shortfall. I think they have some time to decide.
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    Paul,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. I take a different view of utilities in rising rate environments. Reviewing their performance during the three most recent rate cycles in 2001-2007, 1993-2000 and 1986-1989, investors should be more fearful of rates on the decline than rates on the increase. Here is an article on that topic from last July:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    zulu

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. I agree a $38 price would be a nice entry point.
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Co. And Exelon - 'Why Don't You Try Me' [View article]
    This bit was edited out as the last paragraph. Enjoy:
    Author’s Comments: The following are links to various Ry Cooder youtube clips, and don’t forget to turn up the volume. I bet you will be glad you did.

    With Buckwheat Zydeco and Lenny Kravitz: “My Girl Josephine”;
    http://bit.ly/1HibdVa

    From the 1980 album “Borderline”: “Why Don’t You Try Me?”;
    http://bit.ly/1HibdVc

    The 1987 version of “Crazy Bout Automobiles”;
    http://bit.ly/1Hibebs

    and with Taj Mahal in 2014 on the blues favorite “Statesboro Blues”.
    http://bit.ly/1HibfMM
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth And Value Investors Should Own ITC As A Core Holding [View article]
    birder,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. Glad I could be of service
    Jun 18, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Defossilized My Portfolio - Part 2 [View article]
    DS,

    Nice write-up on EVA. As with all MLPs, I think it is important for investors to understand the IDRs than the GP will receive. The current distribution is annualized at $1.64 a year and the GP moves to a 50-50 split above $2.47. With the planned drop down of three more pellet plants and two export facilities, EVA could reach this distribution point in about three years.
    Jun 18, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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