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George Fisher  

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  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    robert,

    Thanks and that is an interesting approach
    Jan 10, 2015. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    Go and Robert,

    It is interesting your comments are back to back as they take the two sides of the situation. Thanks for reading and posting your comments
    Jan 10, 2015. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    zubbub and lax,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. While the culture in the Middle East has a time frame focus much longer than our quarter-to-quarter mentality, I don't think the low oil prices are a long, drawn out affair. While the price decline in 1985-1986 almost matches this one and it took until 1999 until prices recouped to their previous 1985 high, I think cost structures and heavy reliance on oil as the revenue generating tool for many countries, the hurt will be felt quite quickly. If the hurt is directed towards Iran, it will be a signed agreement that will allow a turn in the price. The last signed agreement was in 2013. I think the Saudis have also made it quite clear they have to be satisfied before prices go up - regardless.

    And thanks for the kind words
    Jan 10, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    Redundant,

    Thanks for the interesting question.

    A few sign I'm looking for include the inevitable consolidation of the industry. It is already starting to happen with the acquisition of Talisman TLM by Spanish oil co Repsol REPYY. REPYY recently had a large portion of its production "nationalized" by the Argentine government.

    In addition, I am following the moves of Glencore's GLNCF CEO Ivan Glasenberg. Oil and agriculture generate only about 5% of GLNCF's profits and Glasenberg has suggested the firm is looking to expand its oil footprint. This guy is pretty smart and I would not mind following his lead.

    While controversial, Steven Ferris, CEO of Apache APA, is one of the smarter guys in the industry. I will be looking at his moves as well.

    The land grab is not over concerning new oil discoveries. It seems the Danes are claiming ownership of the North Pole, and the oil underneath it.
    http://bit.ly/1vVMMAH

    FD: Long GLNCF, APA
    Jan 10, 2015. 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    notnil,

    Thanks for the link.
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    DS,

    Thanks again for reading and posting your comments. Nice to see your continued support.
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    b,

    Thanks for reading and posting your comments. I can't tell you what the appropriate production cut will be. The charts above seem to indicate a Saudi cut of between 0.5 and 1.0 mill barrels a day has been done in the past.
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    wayne,

    The strategy is to buy when stock price crosses the MA on the way up and to sell when it crosses on the way down. The 75-day is a short-term indicator as it is more volatile and the 200-day is a longer term indicator. the concept is you will not usually buy at the 20% lowest price and will not sell at the 20% highest price, but will make your profit in the 60% in between... with lower risk. A student of the strategy will have some trades that get stopped out pretty quickly as the cross over will be a false blip and prices fall under the MA. The other leg is increasing volume where moves crossing the MA are accompanied by higher volume. A low volume cross does not have a much conviction as a high volume cross. Look at a few charts and these 4 stages become pretty obvious, in hindsight

    Hope this helps
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    arg1,

    Thanks for the link. Interesting article
    Jan 8, 2015. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    George,

    I do an annual Tax Loss Harvest as described here in an article from last Nov. "What is Tax Loss Harvesting and Why Should I Care"
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I believe in managing portfolios in taxable accounts with tax implications firmly front and center
    Jan 8, 2015. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    Rose,

    Thanks for your kind words. I agree it's hard not to catch that knife, and am giving serious consideration to FLR. I appreciate your continuing support.
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    ingot,

    The bottom of the previous major declines in price over the previous 15 years have coincided with a cut in OPEC production. Refer to the two graphics in the article.

    Thanks for reading and posting your question.
    Jan 8, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    darn,

    Absolutely. Look at the most recent trade deficit numbers.
    http://buswk.co/1zX7HWu

    Reducing the amount of USD sloshing around the world will strengthen our currency. However, just as there are consequences to oil infrastructure construction firms that comes with low prices, there are consequences from a strong dollar to multinational US firms with large % of revenues generated overseas.
    Jan 8, 2015. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    Mac and Cincy,

    I agree and thanks for reading.
    Jan 8, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Stocks: The Opportune Time Is When Both A And B Occur [View article]
    Notnil,

    Just read the nat gas article which I found also interesting. I wonder how the newly printed gas deal between Russia and China will be effected with a 34% drop in currency and lower prices. There is a lot of new infrastructure needed to actually deliver the product. This deal, worth $400 bil for gas from Russia, is to be settled with each other's currency, bypassing the USD. There was word another similar deal is in the works as well. We shall see.

    Thanks again.
    Jan 8, 2015. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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