Seeking Alpha

George Kesarios

 
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  • Why Groupon Will Be One Of The Main Beneficiaries Of The iPhone 6
    Mon, Sep. 15 GRPN 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple's Payment system is a game-changer for the mobile payments space.
    • Companies who have a very big footprint in the mobile commerce space, will benefit going forward.
    • And Groupon being one of the largest mobile commerce companies in the world, will benefit more than most.
  • Why The Plunge In Gold Is Justified And Why It Might Plunge Even More
    Sat, Sep. 6 AGOL, IAU, OUNZ 150 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold does not pay a dividend, it has no EPS and it has no balance sheet. So the traditional rules as to what gold is worth don’t apply to it.
    • The price of gold, like all commodities, is a function of demand.
    • As as you will see, demand for gold has plunged.
  • Why I Have Mixed Feelings About Advanced Micro Devices
    Wed, Sep. 3 AMD 204 Comments

    Summary

    • I have been bullish on AMD for some time now; however, I cannot say I'm satisfied with the stock's performance.
    • The problem is that AMD is still a turnaround situation play that to a great extent is a function of balance sheet repair.
    • Until this balance sheet repair gets underway, there is not much incentive for the market to bid up AMD's stock.
    • As a result, I think AMD will underperform for the foreseeable future.
  • Apple's iPhone 6: Size Matters
    Tue, Sep. 2 AAPL 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple will introduce two new devices over the next several days with a much bigger screen.
    • If I am correct, not only are these new bigger devices overdue, but Apple will gain market share both in the U.S. and worldwide as a result.
    • As for Apple's stock, I think the news will be neutral. Apple's stock has risen by much recently and analysts' price target is not far from current levels.
  • Speculating With Zynga
    Mon, Sep. 1 ZNGA 20 Comments

    Summary

    • The social gaming business that Zynga pioneered has been in steady decline for many quarters now.
    • However, there are limits to how low Zynga's stock can retreat due to retreating revenue.
    • If I am right, this inflection point is the stock's book value that's about 20% lower from here. If Zynga retreats another 20%, it will represent a good speculation opportunity.
  • Angie's List: Expect A Liquidity Crisis If Nothing Changes
    Tue, Aug. 26 ANGI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The company's current assets vs. current liabilities have continued to widen for many quarters now.
    • Many of the current liabilities are deferred and don't have to be paid in cash.
    • However if this difference continues to widen in the future, there will come a time where the company will experience a liquidity crisis.
  • Blackberry's 'Total Recall'
    Mon, Aug. 25 BBRY 53 Comments

    Summary

    • Is BlackBerry experiencing a “total recall,” similar to the epic Arnold Schwarzenegger movie?
    • Even if the company is not profitable yet, the price action in the stock suggests the market is probably discounting it will be.
    • So, worries that BlackBerry might not be a going concern in the future have finally subsided, as evidenced by the shrinking short interest .
  • The National Bank Of Greece Is Still Not Investment-Grade Material
    Wed, Aug. 20 NBG 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrary to expectations, NBG's stock is nearing its all-time lows once more.
    • The problem is that we still don't know the NPL bill, and the Greek economy is not doing much better.
    • As such, and until the Greek economy does better and we have a clear picture of the NPL situation, NBG is not investment-grade material yet.
  • The 3-D Space Is Still Too Rich For Long-Term Investors
    Tue, Aug. 19 DDD, SSYS, VJET 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Several stock in the 3-D space have corrected by as much as 75% over the past several months.
    • And if I am correct, many of these stocks will underperform for many years.
    • Growth does come at a premium; however, there are limits to what this premium should be.
  • Any Way You Look At It, Fonar Is A Bargain Stock
    Mon, Aug. 18 FONR 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Fonar has fallen from $25 to $10 on no news.
    • This is one of the cheapest stocks in the medical devices space at the moment.
    • Be it for speculative purposes or because you believe it, its current valuations makes this stock a buy anyway you look at it.
  • Don't Count Groupon Out Just Yet
    Tue, Aug. 12 GRPN 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Groupon missed the street expectations, but the current price already reflects this.
    • Even so, it is still a buy and hold based on its current valuation.
    • With a little luck, Groupon can easily double in the next 12-18 months, which is more than I can say for many other stocks in the social space.
  • The AMD Turnaround Story Remains Intact
    Mon, Apr. 21 AMD 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The AMD turnaround story is still intact, even though the company still has balance sheet issues.
    • The reason why AMD is such a followed stock is because of the potential profits as a turnaround situation.
    • And if management continues on the current path, profits to be had will be plenty.
  • Buy The Recent Correction Of MBIA, A Turnaround In The Works
    Sun, Apr. 20 MBI 23 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent S&P upgrade will permit the company to gradually return to the market and guarantee municipal debt one again.
    • With its stock once at $70 a share, if and when the company returns to the market, is will be totally up on its feet again.
    • The company has surprised analysts for several quartets until now, so the recent 20% decline is probably an opportunity.
  • IBM's Latest Quarter In Charts
    Thu, Apr. 17 IBM 13 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM reported its lowest quarterly revenue in five years.
    • While software and services did better, it was not enough to make up for lower hardware sales.
    • The company is transitioning, but because of its size, this transition will take time.
  • BlackBerry Is Fermenting
    Thu, Apr. 17 BBRY 160 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry is still in a turnaround mode, but has a lot of things going for it.
    • One of the problems however, is that most of these new products and services will be rolled out by the end of the year.
    • So at the current time there is not much to get investors excited. However keep in mind that markets are forward looking.
    • The market and will be keeping an eye on the company, and if it thinks it will be gaining traction, it will make its move sooner.
  • Buy The Gold Stock Space Irrespective Of The Price Of Gold
    Tue, Apr. 15 ABX, AEM, AU 19 Comments

    Summary

    • More and more analysts are calling for $1,000 gold.
    • The question is, even if gold does go to $1,000 is that a reason to sell gold stocks?
    • According to the average price target of analysts, the answer is probably no.
  • This Might Not Be The Last Round Of Funding For The National Bank Of Greece
    Tue, Apr. 15 NBG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • National Bank of Greece announced that it will proceed with its plan to raise 2.5 billion euros.
    • This is contrary to the initial announcement that it will be raising capital via other means, and not selling more shares.
    • As to if this will be the last round of fundraising remains to be seen, however, the BlackRock report seems optimistic.
  • Herbalife: He Who Laughs Last, Laughs Best
    Sat, Apr. 12 HLF 187 Comments

    Summary

    • The Financial Times article on Friday claiming Herbalife was under investigation by the FBI and the Department of Justice was the main reason for the pressure on the stock.
    • Given that Carl Icahn knows the company much better than Bill Ackman, the benefit goes to Icahn.
    • And unless the company proves to be a complete scam, the correction is a buying opportunity.
  • BlackBerry Can't Divest Of Its Devices Unit Even If It Wanted To
    Fri, Apr. 11 BBRY 113 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry’s CEO John Chen hinted that the company might get out of the devices business if it can not make money.
    • He later revised and clarified his statements, but nevertheless it caused a lot of confusion.
    • But BlackBerry can not divest out of its devices unit even if it wanted to, because it’s an integral part of its existence.
  • Where I Would Be A Buyer In The 3-D Space
    Fri, Apr. 11 DDD, SSYS, VJET 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Some stocks in the 3-D space have fallen by 70% and are still falling like a rock.
    • The main reason is that they are still expensive compared to most other stocks, even taking into consideration their high growth.
    • Using my methodology of what I consider a reasonable price for growth, these stocks still have a ways to go to the downside.
  • Is The Next Great Rotation From Growth To Value?
    Mon, Apr. 7 AAPL, BLDP, CSCO 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Extreme valuation stocks are getting slaughtered while value stocks have been benefiting over the past couple of weeks.
    • From the looks of it, the market seems to be rotating from growth to value.
    • It’s hard to tell if this trend will continue, or if investors are simply finding comfort in value stocks to avoid the pain of the current market correction.
  • Short Google, Because Arrogant Behavior Has Its Limits
    Mon, Apr. 7 GOOG, GOOGL 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Under the new Google share structure, founding shareholders could not be diluted.
    • Dual-share structures leave room for arrogant behavior and underperformance, concluded a Harvard University study.
    • For these and many more reasons in this article, Google now deserves a discount and not a premium.
  • Social Mount Olympus Has Fallen
    Fri, Apr. 4 ANGI, FB, GRPN 55 Comments

    Summary

    • Many of the high flying social stocks of the past 12 months are deteriorating fast.
    • Their tumble has nothing to do with their business model, but that they are too rich.
    • So much is baked in the cake of many social stocks, that if we see a general market correction, they will continue to fall.
  • Intel's Big Data Initiative Is An Uphill Battle
    Fri, Apr. 4 INTC 19 Comments

    Summary

    • While the recent Intel and Cloudera announcement was applauded by analysts, the market took it with a yawn.
    • Intel will benefit, however probably not by much, that will make a big difference in Intel's profits.
    • While the sector has room to grow, there is already a lot of competition in the space.
  • Google's Dominance Over Android Is Just Beginning
    Thu, Apr. 3 GOOG, GOOGL 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Google recently changed its Mobile Services agreement, and now, the Android logo must show up during the boot process.
    • Manufacturers who don't comply with will not have access to Google's app store.
    • This move is on the back of a secret deal Google struck with Samsung several months ago, aiming at continuing Google Internet dominance.
  • Facebook Is Being Frivolous With Its Money
    Mon, Mar. 31 FB 88 Comments

    Summary

    • Facebook's acquisition strategy seems to be based on luck.
    • It's not buying companies that complement its main business, but instead companies that might become a hit on their own.
    • Coupled with the fact that Facebook is not a cheap stock, these acquisitions represent a danger point for long-term investors, if they turn sour.
  • Why BlackBerry Revenue Might Surprise To The Upside
    Thu, Mar. 27 BBRY 48 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry accounted for sales recognizing hardware revenue in the period the devices were shipped.
    • Then it began recognizing revenue once the device sold through to the end consumer.
    • That created a lapse in revenue that I think is about to close and we should see higher revenue.
  • First The 3-D Space, Next The Fuel Cell Space, Now The SaaS Space
    Thu, Mar. 27 CRM, CSOD, N 2 Comments

    Summary

    • High growth momentum sectors continue to rotate.
    • This time, the SaaS space is in its initial decline phase on the back of the 3D and Fuel Cell space correction recently.
    • The common denominator and main reason for the correction in all three sectors is rich valuations.
  • The Early Bird Will Get The Enterprise Messaging Worm
    Tue, Mar. 25 BBRY 34 Comments

    Summary

    • TechCrunch reported Dropbox has acquired Zulip, a Twitter-type messaging platform.
    • This means that there are many other companies out there that think there is a market for enterprise-level messaging.
    • While BlackBerry is ahead of Zulip, it nevertheless has to act fast to solidify itself in the space.
  • This Is What Happens To High Price/Sales Stocks That Don't Deliver
    Sat, Mar. 22 XONE 37 Comments

    Summary

    • After a string of misses recently, the 3D space is deflating.
    • ExOne is the most recent company to miss and so far has corrected about 50% from its highs.
    • Even with management forecasting 40%-50% revenue growth, and even after a 50% correction, ExOne is still rich.
  • Why The Fuel Cell Bubble Has Popped
    Wed, Mar. 19 BLDP, FCEL, PLUG 45 Comments

    Summary

    • It's not the first time we see rampant speculation in a sector and it will not be the last.
    • Professional traders and veteran speculators know all too well how to exploit herd mentality.
    • As in the case of many blue chip stocks of the last decade, such as Microsoft, those who bought at the top may take many years to break even.
  • Tesla's Deflationary Creative Destruction Has Not Even Begun
    Tue, Mar. 18 TSLA 203 Comments

    Summary

    • Creative destruction describes the way in which economic development arises out of the destruction of some prior economic order.
    • Creative destruction and evolution cannot be stopped, controlled or tampered with.
    • And for the first time in history, creative destruction might destroy more wealth than it produces.