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George Simone  

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  • Introducing Seeking Alpha's New ETF Hub [View article]
    After trying to get the momentum-flow of the market right, the ETF Hub is an indispensable addition to any ETF trader's quiver.
    Thanks lots.
    Jul 14, 2014. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's 1Q12 Return Predicts Continued Gains [View article]
    Yes, you are right, but it all sounds so complicated. A much simpler and seldom failing method of gauging the trends of the market is to follow the Troika, the components of which are the S&P 500 SPX index, the Bull-Trend [BGU] index and the Bear-Trend [BGZ] index.
    When the SPX and [BGU] are at the bottom while the [BGZ] is at the top, the market is about to tank. Conversely as is the case now, when the Bear-Trend is stuck in a deep hole at the bottom of a deep pit while the S&P along with the Bull-Trend keep trending higher, the market will do what it has done since last October - rally!
    Apr 2, 2012. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trend Is Still Your Friend - Weekly Market Outlook March 26 [View article]

    Precisely - so enjoy the ride.
    Mar 27, 2012. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays New Leveraged ETNs vs. the Competition: Different Strokes for Different Time Frames [View article]
    Good idea. Leveraged ETFs with their daily rebalancing and greater volatility can work to the investor's advantage, such as during periods of bull trend or bear trend activity in the underlying index.
    Just make sure that before jumping in you wait to see if such a trend really has developed.
    Mar 23, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Happy Birthday Bull Market [View article]
    Yes - Happy Birthday Bull Market - and remember that you are still only a junior with more Birthdays ahead, before you become a fully fledged adult Bull.
    Using my Troika methodology of gauging the market, its components, stocks and ETFs, the S&P 500 leg of this Troika along with the Bull-Trend leg BGU are riding high on their internal bullish configurations, while the Bear-Trend leg BGZ of this Troika remains stuck in a deep hole at the bottom of a deep pit and therefore presents no threat to this Bull's party.
    So enjoy your Birthday, rev up the volume and invite all bullish minded market participants to get back into the game and participate in what appears to be shaping up as the greatest bull market in Wall Street's history.
    Mar 13, 2012. 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Trainer breaks down ETFs to calculate which funds are invested in stocks identified as the most dangerous to hold. Working on the theory that keeping a high percentage of a fund's assets in stocks deemed unsafe tends to be bad thing, he lines up the 10 ETFs that he finds "the most dangerous." Making the list: RTL, RWW, SCHH, RWR, VNQ, DRN, WREI, FRI, FNIO, FTY[View news story]
    Certainly a most thorough and interesting analysis of 10 deemed to be the most dangerous ETFs. Still, this is only a one-man's opinion, while the market's judgment for these ETFs is quite different, and I for one trust the market and as the market has it, each one of these ETFs is a bull. With eight of these ETFs being REITS, they followed the DOW REIT index in lockstep from the low in December to the recent high in early February. And from that point on volume and participants interest simply faded away, and the DOW REIT along with the ETFs mentioned above went into a sideways drifting consolidation mode. But since the ten, twenty and fifty Day Moving Averages of this DOW REIT and ETFs continue to maintain a bullish configuration, they remain poised to the upside. By the way, they are also well supported by the Troika, in which the bear trend [BGZ] is stuck in a deep hole at the bottom, while the bull trend [BGU] along with the S&P 500; SPX are busy at the top. That theTroika displayed this bullish configuration also during last Tuesdays selling squall, is a sign that the market is a bull, and so are the ETFs mentioned above. Just watch for an increase in volume and a breakout to the upside, and then enjoy the ride. Oh yes, just in case, if you are a bull in this game, keep your fingers crossed. 
    Mar 9, 2012. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Still Bullish [View article]
    You are absolutely right - Cam Hui. How you gauge the market jibes wth the bullish configuration of my Troika, in which the Bear-Trend [BGZ] keeps digging itself deeper into a hole at the bottom of a deep pit, and had started in that direction since the beginning of October, shortly after the Bears were still roaming the top of the charts. At the same time, the Bull-Trend [BGU] along with the S&P 500 [SPX] Index lifted off the bottom and haven't looked back since. Also, most Indexes and Sectors have their Internal Trend-Momentum, Base-Support and Index-Sentiment sporting bullish configurations which keeps the market poised to the upside. Only when these configurations turn bearish, will the Bulls have something to worry about. What is missing in this rally is fuel in the shape of volume, and more participants coming off the sidelines back participating in the game. Other than that, it's a Bull alright.
    Mar 5, 2012. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Take The Bear Bait [View article]
    Right on. Despite the sudden shot of hyper volatility that triggered a selling squall during Wednesday's trade, all the market did was to take a well deserved breather.
    For as long as the S&P 500 [SPX] the Bull-Trend [BGU] and the Bear-Trend [BGZ] Troika keeps up its bullish configuration, the market will discount all the gloom out there, and just keep on trending higher. It's as simple as that.
    Mar 1, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 13,000: Celebrate Or Head For The Hills? [View article]
    Celebrate by all means. OK, so my Market Gauge appears to be stuck at a moderately overbought reading for the S&P 500 index, which is the reason for the frequent Intraday pull backs, and could result in a much needed pause which would be refreshing for the market. But for as long as the major indexes have their internal Trend-Momentum, Base-Support and Index-Sentiment in a bullish configuration, Wall Street's indices will continue to trend higher. That the MAC relative Momentum Index along with the RSI relative Strength Indicator are both solid in bullish territory, helps the market to keep poised to the upside, so enjoy the ride to higher highs. The only bear to watch out for is the price of crude, which has spiked much too high much too fast on nothing more but a hefty Iran fear premium. So anyone who wants to ride the soaring spot oil index to higher peaks, will have a bear by the ears. But that doesn't mean one has to avoid the well performing energy ETFs.
    Feb 26, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    Re S&P 500 still struggling with resistance.
    Resistance levels are in the eyes of the beholder, so what is resistance for the SPX as so well argued by Cam Hui, is a take-off plateau for me. As long as the 10, 20 and 50 day Moving Averages form a bullish configuration as they have done since early October, this S&P 500 index will keep on pulling the market higher.
    That the MACD Relative Momentum index along with the RSI Relative Strength indicator remain in their respective bullish territories, also helps to keep this SPX on track to the upside.
    Feb 19, 2012. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Moneyball': Base Runs Or Home Runs - In Search Of Portfolio Return Consistency [View article]
    Excellent article, obviously written by someone who knows what he or she is talking about. But again, like so many others, the method used in negotiating the market trying to find these stock and ETF needles in a huge haystack appears a bit complicated. The first step in the way I play this game is to ascertain what kind of a market I find myself in. To this effect I developed a method I call the Troika. It consists of the S&P 500 Index which acts as proxy for the market as a whole, the Direxion Bull 3x Large Cap and the Direxion Bear 3x large Cap. From last August to October the Bear rallied several times right through the ceiling, and the consensus among investors had it that a primary Bear Market had started. Yep, those 2x and 3x leveraged Bear ETFs sure did well in those days. So while the Bears were at the top, the S&P 500 along with the Direxion Bull 3x leveraged Large Cap were at the bottom, and one had to play the game accordingly. But even though the Bears tried time and again to hammer the market into the ground, they couldn't do it, and so they gave up and have been sliding down ever since last October. Now these Bears are finding themselves in a deep hole at the bottom of a deep pit, with the Bulls on top, and now this game will have to be played their way. So much for the market, and for finding the needles in the haystack I use the 10 Day, 20 Day and 50 Day moving averages Troika in anything, be they Indexes, Sectors, Stocks or ETFs. When this Troika shows a bullish configuration, it is a buy and when this configuration is bearish, it is a sell. No longwinded fundamental analysis necessary, it's already baked into the cake. What I like especially about the above article is the featured portfolio. In this regard, Alpha has an excellent feature called 'breaking news on this portfolio: view now." It keeps everything on this portfolio updated, and acts as a report card on your endeavors in the market.The writer of the above article features symbols TYH and DZX, both of which are sure winners. Add to these BGU, MWJ, MVV, TQQQ, SOXL and TNA and keep your fingers crossed. 
    Feb 3, 2012. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Is The Most Alarming Chart Of The Week [View article]
    You're not kidding! Think of the CRB Index as the supply side of the Commodity Market, and this Baltic Index as the demand side. If this is the case, then one glance at this extremely bearish Baltic Demand Chart shows that the commodity market is in deep trouble. For now, the CRB Commodity Supply Index is still trying to climb out of a hole it still finds itself in, and if this BALTIC Index does not snap back into a rally-mode any time soon, expect a sharp sell-off in the Commodity Market.
    Jan 21, 2012. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was Tuesday The Top? [View article]
    Was it the top? Not at all, and here are the reasons the way I see it. Recently, the S&P 500 Index rose above 1300 for the first time since July. When the market hit bottom in early August, all the world pronounced that this was the beginning of a secular Bear-Market and up to early October it sure looked that way. Check the charts on my ETF Website and find out why this was not the case.
    Time and again the Bears tried to hammer the market into the ground, and time and again they failed to do so. The reason for this was that the Troika had turned bullish.
    Troika? Well, not the one that crisscrosses the Russian steppes at this time of winter, but the one that crisscrosses Wall Street during each trading session. It consists of the S&P 500 Index SPX, the Bull-Trend Index BGU and the Bear-Trend Index BGZ.
    Anytime the Bear is up while the SPX and BGU are down, you can count on it, the market will hit the skits, as it did at the beginning of last August. But when this Troika reverses and becomes bullish as it did in early October, so will the market. This is why the Bear eventually gave up controlling the market, and is now stuck in a deep hole at the bottom of a deep pit. The reason that the S&P 500 Index along with the Bull-Trend Index have not been able to get a major advance going is the lack of sufficient trading volume caused by a lack of investors' participation in the market.
    So whereto from here?
    During the recent rallies it were the cyclical DOW-Transports, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, the Mid Caps and the Small Caps indices that supplied the fuel, and that is bullish for the market. Add to this that the best performing sectors showing up during a rally are the cyclical Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Materials and Technology, all signs of an improving economy and therefore bullish for the market.
    A contrarian Market-Gauge on my ETF Website is sitting right on the 100 totally neutral demarcation Fence. Should this reading decline below 100, the market will become overbought, topheavy and ready to keel over. But not just yet, even though a bit of a pullback now would be handy, for the Bulls in this market.
    All of my favoured ETFs are Bulls, among them BGU, DIG, ERX, SOXL, TQQQ, UPRO and URTY. There are plenty more on my ETF Website.
    Bullish Indexes in this market are the S&P 500 - SPX, the DOW - INDU, NASDAQ - COMPQ, Russell 2000 - RUT, TSX Composite, the Greenback - USD and spot Crude Oil - WTIC.
    The Bears in this lineup are the CRB Commodity Index and spot Gold. All of this ads up to a 100 % bullish market.
    Jan 19, 2012. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs To Play A Market Reversal [View article]
    OK - since it takes a divergence of opinions to make a market, here is mine. Yes, these ETFs mentioned in this article are excellent for a down market, but this is not a down market. For as long as the Troika Bear-Trend BGZ, the Bull-Trend BGU and the S&P 500 Index SPX remain in their bullish configuration, this will remain a primary Bull Market. This is why when since early October the Bears tried time and again to hammer this market into the ground, they failed to do so. So now the Bear-Trend BGZ is stuck in a deep hole at the bottom of a deep pit, while the Bull-Trend BGZ and the S&P 500 index are rising to higher highs at the top.
    The only reason that recent up-trends and rallies had no staying power and therefore most major Indexes and Sectors were consolidating sideways most of the time, was the lack of trading volume, due to market participants not participating. But this is about to change, so check out the charts on my website and find out why. Meanwhile, the DOW Industrials are bullish, so is the S&P500, the Russell 2000, the Junk-Bond JNK, the NASDAQ, the Greenback and Crude Oil.
    The Bears in this lineup are still the TSX, the CRB Commodity's Index and Gold.
    So all in all, this market remains a solid 100% Bull.
    Jan 17, 2012. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key For The Bulls Is A Dow Close Above 12,500 Today [View article]
    As usual, this article is filled with pertinent information about the stock market. But for those of you who don't need a detailed analysis of every aspect of the market, my interpretation of market behavior is easier to follow, while still very effective.
    To gauge the primary trend in the market I use my Troika, consisting of Bear-Trend BGZ, the Bull-Trend BGU and the S&P 500 Index- SPX.
    When the Bear-Trend is down while the Bull-Trend along with the S&P 500 Index are up, a primary Bull-Trend for the market is in place, and the Bull-ETFs will be the best performers. When the Bear-BGZ rises above this Troika while the Bull-BGU along with the SPX keep sliding to lower lows, a primary Bear-Trend is in place and the Bear-ETFs will perform best.
    Check the charts on my ETF Website and note that between early August and early October the Bear-BGZ was on top, while the Bull-BGU along with the SPX were at the bottom. Since that time, high profile market strategists and market commentators keep calling this a primary Bear-Market.
    But since early October the configuration of this Troika has changed so that no matter how hard the Bears tried to hammer the market into the ground, they could not do it and as a consequence are now in a deep hole at the bottom of a deep pit, and at present not a threat to the market. By contrast, this has the Bulls of the S&P 500 Index poised to rally in a sustained fashion. The only reason that they are held back for now, is the lack of trading volume and investors still gun-shy waiting things out on the sidelines, instead of participating trading the market.
    But this is about to change as rising bullish sentiment in the market keeps pulling more participants back into the game.
    As for gauging individual Indexes, Sectors and ETFs, I follow the projections of internal Trend-Momentum, Base-Support and Sentiment. When their configuration comes up bullish, it is time to trade Bull-ETFs and when bearish, it's time to tango with the Bears. So here I have another Troika which shows me what parts of the market are bullish, bearish or anything in between.
    At present, the situation on the ETF front is neutral but poised to change to the upside in a flash. Although the Bull-ETFs do have the upper hand, they do not have enough participating volume to power a strong and sustainable advance.
    But again, this is about to change.
    Jan 15, 2012. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment