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George Simone
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I'm a long-time Market Participant who has criss-crossed the Market for more years than I care to remember, and a few years ago I got hooked on studying and trading ETFs, especially the leveraged kind. Charts, good charts are an absolute necessity in this field, so the Linchpin of my ETF... More
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  • Still Moseying Sideways?

    Wall Street just keeps on moseying along as it has been since last February when the S&P benchmark 500 index stood and still stands around the 2100 level. But now the Moving-Average configuration of this index has turned bearish with the green line above the red line, the RSI strength indicator has slipped into bearish territory and the MACD momentum bars are sitting at dead neutral on the demarcation line.

    (click to enlarge)

    So the best that can be said about this market is that it stands at a ledge of a steep slope wondering if to climb higher, or just to slide down to a level where it can find some renewed traction again. All in all, this is a good time to stay in cash while taking an extended summer holiday.

    As some market strategists have it, there is no reason to be in this market, except to just mosey along with the flow, and see where it ends up to.

    The market's worry is that if Greece comes off the rails because it can't get a bailout agreement, then contagion will set in among the peripheral euro-zone nations, and that could spill volatility waves right up to Wall Street.

    OK, that's a bit of a stretch, but it could make things uncomfortable for the North-American financial markets. This is especially the case since the Greek government called a sudden referendum for July 5th on whether Greece should accept the demands of the country's creditors. That has thrown into doubt any future financing for Greece, after its current bailout ends on June 30ed. So now the market is concerned over the ramifications this referendum could have on the global financial markets and that could make for some choppy sessions in the months ahead.

    Check the Troika and note that the bull components [RSP] and [SPXL] are turning bearish. The respective Moving-Average lines configurations have turned negative with the green lines above the red lines. The two RSI strength indicators are slipping into bearish territories and so are the respective MACD momentum bars.

    These are warning signals that the market is about to engage in a selloff, moderate or otherwise.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Note that the bear component of this Troika [SPXS] is trying to find some traction to the upside, but has a tough time doing so. Its MA lines configuration continues to be bearish for the bear [green line above the red.] The RSI strength indicator is at dead neutral, and so are the MACD momentum bars.

    But with a Greek financial fiasco looming, chances are that the bear will find a good reason to rally, and take the market down. We'll see.

    (click to enlarge)

    This percent index [SPXA] had a pretty good bounce off the bottom a couple of weeks ago, but this rally couldn't't last because the MA configuration remained extremely bearish [large gap between the green line above the red.] The RSI strength indicator and MACD momentum bars are both at dead neutral, so the market is not getting any support from these indicators.

    (click to enlarge)

    The NASDAQ [NDX] appears to be back in a holding pattern again. Even after rallying strongly a couple of weeks ago, this index was unable to break to new highs, and so it is back in a consolidation mode. This could prove to be bullish for NASDAQ in the months ahead.

    (click to enlarge)

    The commodity index [DBC] continues its bearish pattern with a large gap between the green MA line above the red MA line configuration. But this is also a sign that the commodity market is oversold and therefore could spark a bounce-back rally.

    The RSI strength indicators as well as the MACD momentum bars are both at dead neutral along their respective demarcation lines, and that could cause the market to swing in either direction. (click to enlarge)

    This insiders "smart-money" index [NFO] appears to have given up hope for a rally attempt and is back in a consolidation mode, neither bullish nor bearish. Just a wait and see attitude, which is another sign to stay at the sidelines for a while, and just watch how this thing unfolds.

    (click to enlarge)

    The small-caps [SML] recent outperformance is a sign that this sector is taking back its rightful leadership in the market. The small-cap sector relies more heavily on the North-American economies then overseas where the idiots are.

    This is why large caps that operate over-there are having problems with their balance-sheets, whereas the small-caps are thriving. The recent small-cap rally was cut short for the simple reason that the small-cap index had shot up too far too fast, and so it became overbought and top-heavy. This is why the consequent pullback is bullish not only for the small-caps, but the overall market as well.

    (click to enlarge)

    After consolidating since last April, the consumer-discretionary index [XLY] is set to rally despite the financial troubles in Europe. This is a sign that bullish sentiment in Wall Street is well entrenched and when this Greek shell-game has run its course, the rally can continue from a lower and more solid base.

    (click to enlarge)

    Even with the Greek tragedy unfolding [GOLD] "just ain't" what it used to be. This index keeps sliding deeper into a deep hole when in the past it would have been rallying strongly at times like this. The MA lines configuration is bearish for the yellow metal [green line above the red] the RSI strength indicator has slid into bearish territory and the MACD momentum bars are at dead neutral along the demarcation line.

    These indicators do not augur well for the price of gold

    (click to enlarge)

    Oil [WTIC] seems to have something going for itself. This index appears to be stabilizing in a consolidation mode since early last May and while the RSI strength indicator and the MACD momentum bars remain at dead neutral, the MA lines configuration continues to be bullish with the green line below the red.

    So, it could be that something positive out there is happening for the price of oil.

    (click to enlarge)

    Depending how the Greek situation plays out this week, things could get a bit rocky for the markets. Just keep in mind that ETFs featured in these blogs are meant to be trading vehicles, and not for long-term holdings.

    But just in case the market comes rocking your way, here are some favored ETFs to keep on tap.

    ETF sectors:

    Utilities, Biotech, Health-Care;

    Leveraged Bull ETFs:

    Healthcare 3x (NYSEARCA:CURE), Semis 3x (NYSEARCA:SOXL), Biotech 2x (NASDAQ:BIB), Retail 2x (NYSEARCA:RETL), NASDAQ 2x (NYSEARCA:QLD), S&P 500, 3x (NYSEARCA:SPXL), DOW 30, 3x (NYSEARCA:UDOW), Mid-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:MVV), Small-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA);

    Non-Leveraged Long ETFs:

    Biotech (NYSEARCA:PBE), Pharma (NYSEARCA:XPH), Health-Care (NYSEARCA:RYH) Medical (NYSEARCA:IHI) NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:PXSG), Mid-Caps (NYSEARCA:IWP), Large Caps (PWP), Small-Caps ;

    Leveraged Bear ETFs:

    S&P 500, 2x (NYSEARCA:SDS) NASDAQ 2x , DOW 30, 2x (NYSEARCA:DXD), Russell 2000,2x (NYSEARCA:TWM), Emerging Markets 2x (NYSEARCA:EMSA), Commodities 2x (NYSEARCA:DEE), Financials 3x FAZ), Small-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA), Mid-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:MIDZ), Energy 3x (NYSEARCA:ERY), Technology 3x (NYSEARCA:TECS);

    Non-Leveraged Short ETFs:

    S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SH), Financials (NYSEARCA:FAZ), NASDAQ (NYSEARCA:QID), Base-Metals (NYSEARCA:BOS), Materials (SBU), DOW 30 (NYSEARCA:DOG), Equity Bear (NYSEARCA:HDGE),

    GOOD LUCK!

    Jun 29 12:52 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Whereto The Momentum?

    Have a look back and then postulate what the near future may hold for the market. Check this monthly contrarian XLP: XLY chart and note that when this index rises as it did from late 2007 to late 2008 the market falls [and don't we know it!] But when this index declines as it did from early 2009 to the present, the market rallies [and we sure know that too.]

    Also note that when between 2008 and 2009 the MACD momentum bars surged sharply above the demarcation line, it was a sure sign that the market had entered a protracted freefall. At the same time, the Moving Average lines configuration was extremely bullish for this contrarian index and therefore extremely bearish for the market, with the green line forming a large gap below the red line. Only in early 2011 did this configuration turn bullish for the market when the green line rose above the red line and stayed that way to this day.

    Meanwhile, the MACD momentum bars slipped below the demarcation line of this contrarian index, a sure sign that this recovery-rally had staying power. Now, these bars as well as the Moving Average configuration have to move in tandem in order to confirm or non-confirm a current market direction, and "that" is the big question confronting market participants at present.

    Yes, for now the MA lines configuration for this contrarian index [green line above the red] is projecting a market bullish as far as the eye can see. But the MACD momentum bars remain totally neutral along the demarcation line undecided which side to support the bulls or the bears and therefore, sooner or later, something's got to give.

    (click to enlarge)

    Last Thursday Wall Street had surged for a third consecutive session in the best thee-day winning streak since mid-March. What sparked this rally were the Fed-Chair Janet Yellen's remarks that despite an improving labor market the Fed was in no hurry to tighten its easy-money spigot by raising interest rates anytime soon.

    That's just what the market wanted to hear, and the rally was on. But by last Friday Wall Street had figured that with the Fed scaling back the rate of its rate-hike something must be amiss with the economic recovery, and "pop" went the rally.

    Check the Troika and note that with its main component [RSP] showing a distinct double bottom and after a four month consolidation period, this market is ready to scale higher highs. But with the Moving Average lines configuration turning bearish [green line above the red] the market may have a hard time doing so.

    After being bearish below their respective demarcation lines over the past four weeks, both the RSI strength indicator and MACD momentum bars have turned neutral along the same lines, which could indicate another consolidation period for a sideways moving market.

    (click to enlarge)

    The Bull component of this Troika [SPXL] shows the same configurations as the RSP, with similar implications.

    (click to enlarge)

    The Bear component of this Troika [SPXS] continues to work hard to get out of the hole it had dug itself into over the past six years. But with the RSI strength indicator back in negative territory, there is no sustained moxie with this bear. The MACD momentum bars are also slipping back into negative territory below the demarcation line so that there is no danger for the market from this bear at all. This is especially the case for as long as the MA lines configuration remains bearish for the bear [green line above the red.]

    So the only way for the market to slip into a selloff mode is for the bull to stumble. Because of the bull's lack of upside momentum, that selloff could be just around the corner.

    (click to enlarge)

    For the market to rally in a sustained fashion, the cyclicals [FCLAX] have to lead the way. They have been consolidating in a tight range since the later part of May, while being well supported by a bullish MA lines configuration [green line below the red.] But with the RSI strength indicator at dead neutral and the MACD momentum bars in bearish territory below the demarcation line, there is no chance for the cyclicals to rally for now.

    There was a chance last May when this index rallied strongly, helped by the bullish MACD momentum bars above the demarcation line. But note that the MA lines configuration remained bearish [green line above the red] and that was the end of this rally.

    Sure, by the beginning of June the MA lines configuration had turned bullish again with the green line below the red, but now the MACD momentum bars had slipped south of the demarcation line and that nixed this rally attempt.

    This is a good example why the Moving Averages and the MACD momentum bars have to act in tandem for any sizable market move to succeed, bullish or bearish.

    (click to enlarge)

    Being part of the cyclical family, the small-caps [IJR] and mid-caps [IJH] have to be among the leaders of any rally. This time, both of these sectors fit the bill, and that gives hope to the market. Both respective indexes broke sharply to the upside, and ditto for the respective RSI strength indicators and MACD momentum bars.

    OK, both of theses indexes have overdone it a bit so a pullback could be in store, and that would be bullish for the market as a whole.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    The high-risk junk-bond sector [JNK] vs. the high-grade bond-sector [LQD] shows that there is no appetite for risk by the market participants in this game.

    The MA lines configuration [green line above the red] is sharply bearish for junk-bonds. That the RSI strength indicator for JNK is also stuck in bearish territory along with the MACD momentum bars bearish below the demarcation line, the large-cap blue-chips have it, and the rest had better watch out.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    This contrarian XLP: XLY index is bearish, meaning bullish for the market. The RSI strength indicator is sitting in bearish territory and the MA lines configuration [green line above the red] is also solidly bearish which should help the market to get a good rally started.

    The question points as usual are the MACD momentum bars which are sitting at dead neutral along the demarcation line. Only when these bars turn bullish above this line, can a strong and sustainable rally kick into gear.

    (click to enlarge)

    The NASDAQ composite index [COMPQ] looks pretty good and that could be a harbinger for the whole market. After a good consolidation period resulting in a double bottom, this index broke to the upside while being well supported by a bullish MA lines configuration with the green line above the red line. The RSI strength indicator is in bullish territory and the MACD momentum bars are about to do the same when they rise above the demarcation line [let's hope.]

    (click to enlarge)

    The commodity market [CRB] appears to be consolidating while under pressure from a bearish MA lines configuration [green line above the red.] While the RSI strength indicator has slipped into bearish territory, the MACD momentum bars remain neutral along the demarcation line. All of this means that neither bulls nor bears have an advantage in the commodity market.

    (click to enlarge)

    The yellow metal [GOLD] is trying hard to turn bullish. Its RSI strength indicator is solid in bullish territory, and the MACD momentum bars managed to be bullish on top of the demarcation line. But for as long as the MA lines configuration remains bearish [green line above the red] gold will continue to move sideways at best.

    (click to enlarge)

    Oil [WTIC] is consolidating while this index remains well supported by a bullish MA lines configuration [green line below the red.] Both the RSI strength indicator and MACD momentum bars are at dead neutral along their respective demarcation lines. This implies that the price of oil will remain more or less at current levels for a while.

    (click to enlarge)

    All in all, this is a market where participants switch from a risk-on sentiment to a risk-off and back again repeatedly. This is why the market gains triple digits one day only to give it back the next day. It is likely that this situation will persist for as long as there is no appreciable momentum to either side.

    So enjoy the summer, and in case the market comes your way, here are some favored ETFs to keep on tap and take advantage off.

    ETF sectors:

    Biotech, Health-Care, Small-Caps, Mid-Caps, NASDAQ, Semis;

    Leveraged Bull ETFs:

    S&P 500, 2x (NYSEARCA:SSO), NASDAQ 2x (NYSEARCA:QLD), Financials 2x (NYSEARCA:UYG), DOW 30, 2x (NYSEARCA:DDM), Mid-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:MDLL), Small-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA), Health-Care 2x (NYSEARCA:RXL), Technology 3x (NYSEARCA:TECL), Semis 3x (NYSEARCA:SOXL), Developed Markets 3x (NYSEARCA:SZK);

    Non-Leveraged Long ETFs:

    Biotech (NASDAQ:BBP), Biotech (NYSEARCA:PBE), Pharma (NYSEARCA:XPH), Semis (NYSEARCA:PSI), Cyber Security (NYSEARCA:HACK), Discretionary (NYSEARCA:FXD), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), Small-Caps (NYSEARCA:FYC), Mid-Caps (NYSEARCA:IWP), Large Caps (NYSEARCA:RPX), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:IVW);

    Leveraged Bears:

    Mid-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:MZZ), Emerging Markets 2x (NYSEARCA:EEV), Utilities 2x (NYSEARCA:YCS), Financials 3x (RAZ), Small-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA), Mid-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:SMDD), China 3x (NYSEARCA:YANG), S&P 500 3x (NYSEARCA:SPXS), Technology 3x (NYSEARCA:TECS), Semis 3x (NYSEARCA:SOXS), NASDAQ 3x (NASDAQ:SQQQ), Russell 2000, 3x (NYSEARCA:SRTY);

    Non-Leveraged Short ETFs:

    S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SH), Total Market (NYSEARCA:TOTS), Commodity (NYSEARCA:DDP), DOW 30 (NYSEARCA:DOG), Financials (NYSEARCA:SEF), China (NYSEARCA:YXI), Small-Caps (NYSEARCA:SBB), Mid-Caps (NYSEARCA:MYY), NASDAQ (NYSEARCA:PSQ), Oil&Gas (NYSEARCA:DDG);

    GOOD LUCK!

    Jun 22 8:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Has The Bull Lost His Snort?

    When last Wednesday the market rallied sharply with the DOW up 236 points, the airways were filled with talking heads proclaiming that with this upside breakout from the narrow trading channel the bull had returned, and that the market was back in gear to higher highs.

    Well, the bull had never left, but his "snort" sure had, and still is. The bulls out there are wondering if the recent improvement in the jobs market will cause the Fed to stem the easy money flow that has kept this rally going for the last six years. Meanwhile, the ongoing Creek debt fiascoes are keeping the markets on edge, because the eventual outcome could be pretty messy and far-reaching.

    But let's see what the market as reflected by these charts has to say about that, and so let's first check the Troika.

    Even though the main component [RSP] had itself a pretty good snapback rally last Wednesday, it couldn't't stop the renewed slide to the downside. The reason for this was that despite a still somewhat bullish Moving Average lines configuration [green line below the red] both the RSI strength indicator and the MACD momentum bars have slipped into their respective bearish territories, and that can put the kibosh on any rally. (click to enlarge)

    The bull component of this Troika [SPXL] shows the same "iffy" configurations, so the market won't get any help from that corner either.

    (click to enlarge)

    The bear of this Troika [SPCS] keeps working hard to get out of the hole it has been hibernating in for the last six years. The MADCD momentum bars managed to rise above the demarcation line, and that's bullish for the bears.

    But with the RSI strength indicator sitting on its neutral line while the MA lines configuration remains negative [green line above the red] this Troika projects a bearish situation for the bears???

    So with being bearish on one side and bullish on the other, the market will just keep on moseying sideways with some pretty sharp bearish zigs and bullish zags in between.

    (click to enlarge)

    This is why the trend indicator [TRND] is still bullish but also bearish as it went through a sizable selloff in recent weeks. The MA lines configuration remains strongly bullish with the green line below the red, the RSI strength indicator is totally neutral on its neutral line while the MACD momentum bars continue to be bearish below the demarcation line.

    So be prepared for more "flat-lined" markets going nowhere fast.

    (click to enlarge)

    If you're a bull in this market keep your fingers crossed that this market forecasting junk-bond canary [JNK] got it all wrong with its bearish forecast for the market.

    After consolidating in April and May, this little bird took a sudden nosedive and hasn't recovered yet. To make things worse, the MA lines configuration for this Junk-Bird is turning bearish with the red line slipping below the green, the RSI strength indicator is bearish at the bottom of its range and the MACD momentum bars have slipped below the demarcation line.

    Maybe this has much to do about nothing, but it is surely a caution signal for the market participants out there.

    (click to enlarge)

    This contra VIX index [XIV] is working hard to create a bullish sentiment mode for the market. Consolidating since early May, this index remains well supported by a bullish MA lines configuration [green line below the red.] While the RSI strength indicator is also positive in its bullish territory, the MACD momentum bars remain bearish to neutral along the demarcation line. This means that neither bulls nor bears are able to move this market either way to any appreciable degree.

    (click to enlarge)

    For this market to continue moving to higher highs, these cyclicals [FCL] will have to lead the way. While this index is consolidating, it remains well supported by a strong MA lines configuration [green line below the red.] But with both the RSI strength indicator and MACD momentum bars in a neutral mode, it remains to be seen if the cyclicals are strong enough to lead this market at this time.

    (click to enlarge)

    Just like the cyclicals, the small-caps [SML] have to be out front for any market advance to be sustainable, and here this chart looks really good. This index appears to be stabilizing while breaking out to the upside. Its MA lines configuration is turning bullish as the green line is slipping below the red line and the RSI strength is also bullish in its positive territory. The MACD momentum bars are bullish on top of the demarcation line and so all that is needed now is for market participants to keep their fingers crossed for the little guys to hang in there.

    (click to enlarge)

    The mid-caps [SCHM] have to work in tandem with the small-caps in order for the market to shift into cruising speed to higher highs.

    Even though things look a bit hesitant with the market somewhat wobbly, but as far as the small and mid-caps are concerned they'll keep the market on the right track to the upside.

    Note that the mid-caps are still consolidating as they have been since the middle of May while being well supported by a fairly bullish MA lines configuration [green line below the red line.] The RSI strength indicator is waiting things out on the neutral line and ditto for the MACD momentum bars.

    All in all, the small and mid-caps are still playing a waiting game, and that gives hope to the market.

    (click to enlarge)

    NASDAQ [COMPQ] is also waiting for things to jell a little more on Wall Street and this index is therefore still in a consolidation mode which it maintained since the middle of May. This index is also well supported by a strong MA lines configuration [green line below the red] which bodes well for NASDAQ. The MACD has slipped below the demarcation line, which at this stage is only a caution signal, but needs to be heeded. The RSI strength indicator is sitting at dead neutral which appears to be the current trend for the overall market.

    (click to enlarge)

    The commodity market [GTX] appears to be also in the consolidation game, and waiting for whatever comes next. This is why this index keeps zigzagging its way sideways, while the RSI strength indicator and the MACD momentum bars are sitting at dead neutral on their respective demarcation lines.

    The MA lines configuration is still bullish with the green line below the red line, but the gap between these two is shrinking which implies that all is not well for commodities. So caution in this market is also called for.

    (click to enlarge)

    The yellow metal [GOLD] has settled into a blue-funk and is in no condition to snap out of it anytime soon. While this index keeps sliding deeper into the nether region, the MA lines configuration has turned bearish [green line above the red] the RSI strength indicator is in bearish territory and so are the MACD momentum bars. So all in all not a happy situation for the gold-bugs out there.

    (click to enlarge)

    Like most major indexes, oil [WTIC] is in a consolidation mode while strongly supported by a bullish MA lines configuration [green line below the red.] The RSI strength indicator along with the MACD momentum bars are sitting at dead neutral along their respective demarcation lines, but with a bias to the upside.

    (click to enlarge)

    Much is being said about the strength of the U.S. dollar [USD] and how that is adversely affecting commodities and the U.S. economy generally. Check this dollar index and then wonder where that strength of the greenback lies.

    This index is still trending lower, its MA lines configuration continues to be bearish [green line above the red] and both the RSI strength indicator and the MACD momentum bars keep sliding deeper into bearish territories.

    So whatever the troubles out there, they cannot be blamed on a strong greenback. (click to enlarge)

    All in all and as these charts show, this is still a bifurcated market that can lift you up one day, only to put you down the next. But even though this market is setting up for a short and potentially deep correction, according to these charts it remains primarily bullish and that makes any selling squall a buying opportunity.

    So in case the market comes sliding your way, here are some favored ETFs to keep on tap for any situation.

    ETF sectors:

    Regional Banking, Health-Care, Biotech, Technology, Materials, Discretionary;

    Leveraged Bull ETFs:

    China 3x (NYSEARCA:YINN), Biotech 2x (NASDAQ:BIB), Healthcare 3x (NYSEARCA:CURE), Semis 3x (NYSEARCA:SOXL), NASDAQ 2x (NASDAQ:TQQQ), Real Estate 3x (NYSEARCA:DRN), Technology 3x (NYSEARCA:TECL), S&P 500, 3x (NYSEARCA:SPXL), DOW 30, 3x (NYSEARCA:UDOW), Financials 3x (NYSEARCA:FAS), Russell 2000, 3x (NYSEARCA:URTY), Small Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA);

    Non-Leveraged Long ETFs:

    China (NYSEARCA:PEK), Biotech (NYSEARCA:XBI), Pharma (XPKT), Semis (NYSEARCA:PSI), Retail (NYSEARCA:RTH) Health Care (NYSEARCA:XHS), NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ), Technology (NYSEARCA:RYT), Discretionary (NYSEARCA:FXD), Home Construction (NYSEARCA:ITB), Materials (NYSEARCA:RTM);

    Leveraged Bear ETFs:

    Oil 3x (NYSEARCA:DWTI), Nat Gas 2x (NYSEARCA:KOLD), Energy 3x (NYSEARCA:ERY), Oil&Gas 2x (NYSEARCA:DUG), Financials 2x (SKR), DOW 30, 2x (NYSEARCA:DXD), Russell 2000, 2x (NYSEARCA:TWM), NASDAQ 2x (NYSEARCA:QID), Biotech 2x (NASDAQ:BIS), Semis 3x (NYSEARCA:SOXS), S&P 500, 3x (NYSEARCA:SPXU);

    Non-Leveraged Short ETFs:

    Oil (NYSEARCA:DNO), Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA:EUM), Active Bear (NYSEARCA:HDGE), Russell 2000, (NYSEARCA:RWM), DOW 30, (NYSEARCA:DOG), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SH), Financials (NYSEARCA:SEF), NASDAQ (NYSEARCA:PSQ), Mid-Caps (NYSEARCA:MYY), Real Estate (NYSEARCA:REK);

    GOOD LUCK!

    Jun 15 6:35 PM | Link | Comment!
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