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Gerard Hallaren, CFA

 
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  • AT&T: Sprint Declares (A Price) War [View article]
    I am long Sprint.

    You may be thinking of a dollar reduction in revenue rather than price. Lower prices usually bring more revenue, and the reverse is also true. Sprint's fixed cost network is sadly underutilized. I am guessing Sprint margins will be noticeably higher by mid 2015 than today.

    The other issue is that price changes only affect about 1/8th of the customers at any one time. So prices in the industry tend to creep rather than vault as the dollar price, dollar operating income analysis suggests.

    All four of the US carriers have done a great job fooling the public. Everyone thinks they are getting better deals. But once the handset cost is included prices are higher. Margins are going up, not down.
    Aug 19 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Sprint Declares (A Price) War [View article]
    I am long Sprint.

    Lets look at Root Metric's 2H/2014 and 1H/2015 and see if Sprint's network is better. At the last analyst call, Hesse fessed up to Network Vision flawed rip and replace plan. Its done now. No one else offers HD Voice, or likely will until VOIP.

    Me, I look forward to seeing results from the Spark network. If it is only half as good as Sprint's WiMAX, Sprint will likely take share. I think there is good reason to believe Spark will be a much stronger offering than WiMAX ever was.

    Most prepaid phone customers get a lower class of service than any carrier provides to its postpaid customers. Get a good postpaid plan.

    I think the ability to raise price in 2015 is a good thing.
    Aug 19 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    If it was substantial (aka material) it would have been disclosed. I would still love to know.
    Aug 1 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    After I thanked barnesy, I called BlackBerry IR. They confirmed with the following statement. "The Passport will not be a Foxconn device."
    Aug 1 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    Well Chen is neither God nor a profligate spender wholsale personality shifter like Ron Johnson.

    You might consider BlackBerry to be an Enterprise Software company masquerading as a device manufacturer.

    For BlackBerry devices' value add was BES. Ultimately the iPhone and then Android devalued the handsets no matter how good BES was or is.
    Aug 1 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    Thanks, I did not know.

    My best guess is that Passport is an experiment trying to see if there is a market. While I have opinions, both positive and negative about BBRY and am long the stock, Passport might prove worth while.

    For my part, I'd like it better if it had an e-Ink display and a home key.
    Aug 1 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    Nice perspective. Well done without being a lightening rod for blather. Thank you.
    Aug 1 07:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    barnsey,

    The Passport is an odd Duck, to be sure. Because Foxconn is funding it, I don't think it is particularly reckless.
    Aug 1 07:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is A Solid Buy On The Dip [View article]
    I think the IBM/Apple announcement shook BlackBerry stock out of weak hands. It is way too soon to make much of a judgment on the deal. The two companies have a multi-decade history of unsuccessful collaboration. Apple makes attractive handsets. IBM understands the enterprise. It could work. Yes, I am long BlackBerry.
    Jul 28 10:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry, Dell Partnership To Battle Apple, IBM? [View article]
    This is a potentially interesting collaboration. Though I am not sure Dell has the application base of IBM. Perhaps, Dell would take over BlackBerry's Handset business instead of Foxconn.
    Jul 28 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About The Apple/IBM Deal And BlackBerry [View article]
    Mr. Know it All:

    I appreciate your keeping me and others up to date. Please remember that BlackBerry's ATO is from the DOD. IBM's 2011 ATO was from the GAO under FISMA, not the DOD. As these standards are pretty well known, I'd bet most vendors have it or have it in reach. Does IBM still have the ATO? I would guess they did but there is no guarantee. This is also a server only ATO, BlackBerry's is for a network of servers and devices.

    BlackBerry's is for Defense Information Systems which normally are subject to much higher scrutiny, testing, and standards before an ATO is issued. While we may disagree on BlackBerry stock, I think we both tend to believe a company when it states something like,


    Waterloo, ON – BlackBerry® (NASDAQ: BBRY; TSX: BB) today announced the U.S. Defense Information System Agency (DISA) has given BlackBerry® Z10 and BlackBerry® Q10 smartphones with BlackBerry® Enterprise Service 10, the Authority to Operate (NYSE:ATO) on Department of Defense (DoD) networks. BlackBerry is the first Mobile Device Management (NYSEMKT:MDM) provider to obtain an ATO.

    With the ATO, DISA is now developing the infrastructure to support BlackBerry 10 smartphones. DISA is architecting the capacity to support 10,000 BlackBerry 10 smartphones by this fall and 30,000 by the end of 2013 on DoD networks.

    Cheers and thanks for the info/updates (really)
    G
    Jul 22 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About The Apple/IBM Deal And BlackBerry [View article]
    I am a wireless guy and I think wireless 90% of the time. That remaining 10% is about fiber.

    BlackBerry's ATO is for the BES10 server with Q10 and Z10 handsets. It does not cover legacy BBRY. To me this is an attractive differentiation from all other MDM and handset makers. Secure handsets and MDMs are not mass market products. I don't believe secure MDMs win or lose base on Apple or Android support. Secure MDMs win on being secure, end-to-end. Most enterprises know they have to accept some limitations and higher costs to implement end-to-end security. BlackBerry serves this market better than any other I know.

    Why I am constantly suspicious of Apple Security: Many years ago, I was an investigator at MiniScribe, which was a disk drive company that had experienced fraud. There were many reasons people committed the fraud. The company's internal control dependence on Apple computers was a big enabler. Yes, I know Apple has gotten WAY better. This is just why I tend not to believe Apple security claims.
    Jul 22 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About The Apple/IBM Deal And BlackBerry [View article]
    Thanks for the post.

    I focus almost totally on Wireless. What is not wireless is fiber.

    An earlier post from Momintum reported that IBM received an ATO for other networks. My bad for not qualifying the ATO remark as a wireless ATO.
    Jul 22 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Breakdown Of Apple's ROE Tells A Cautionary Tale [View article]
    This is a core element of my research methodology. Good work!
    One thing worth thinking about is CAROE or Cash Adjusted ROE. Cash is usually less productive than operating assets. Sometimes it is worth subtracting the cash out of assets and equity and then revisiting the trend.
    Jul 21 07:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About The Apple/IBM Deal And BlackBerry [View article]
    It was 1997.
    Jul 21 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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