Gerard Hallaren

Web Video Isn't Killing Cable...Yet

FYI Comcast is marketing this service here in Denver now. If you are a comcast customer sign in and go to: www.comcast.net/tv/ful.../ to see TV shows. I could not find the page for the advertised moveis.


On Feb 24 11:03 AM User 363339 wrote:

> Don't forget that the very cable companies that everyone loves to
> bash, are also some of the largest ISP's in the country. The Wall
> Street Journal is reporting that some major MOS's have begun talks
> with cable network providers - where cable programming would be available
> online, but only to those who subscribe to their internet service.
> Comcast and Time Warner Cable have been talking with Viacom, Time
> Warner and NBC Universal. This idea would give MSO's a unique leg-up
> over satelite companies and telcos. The providers of these shows
> would also get the added bonus of having their shows supported by
> advertising.

Web Video Isn't Killing Cable...Yet

It is not yet over for traditional Pay TV but will likely be in a few years. Despite losses at DISH, we expect the industry will show good subscriber growth through at least Q2/09.

The reason is the national switch to digital tv. Nearly every Pay TV carrier is offering new entry level packages with prices ranging from free to about $30/month though the $10-$13 price is most dominant. We expect the switch to digital tv will add about 5 million new pay customers from in the 15 months ending 9/09. (note this is not net new) We exoect most of these will ultimately figure our their converter box and go back to broadcast.

In the meantime, digital broadcast TV is offering a comparable to superior experience to cable. In our house, the picture and sound for the Oscars, Grammies, and Superbowl were all better in broadcast than from Comcast's digital service.

The future is about free and low cost video entertainment. This means digital broadcast and internet video. Don't let the industry growth numbers fool you. It will be short lived. The rules are changing and digital and mobile TV standards give broadcaster their first break since Eisenhower's first term when color standards were ratified.