Gerry Sullivan

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

This all makes sense. What cannot be known is where we are in the bubble. From the end of 1996 to Jan 2000 Yahoo went up 15,000%.

When Yahoo was up 1000% it seemed to be a bubble. It rose another 15 fold. After Alan Greenspan made his famous comment on irrational exhuberance.

From 1990 to 2000 Dell went up over 100,000%. Oil is different, but you just cannot rely on Francis Bacon to call this a top.

Getting Out of Today's Bear Market

From Jan 1997 to Aug 1998 Yahoo rose 1000%, well into bubble territory.

By Jan 2000 Yahoo was up another 1500%. Total advance 15,000%.

This commodity bubble can go much higher.

Thursday Outlook: Crude Awakening

Politicians don't take big bold steps until a problem is critical. Would we put up with all the airport screening if we hadn't experienced 9/11?

Even now there is political talk about reducing or eliminating the gas
tax for the summer. Is that the way to encourage conservation?

Only necessity forces politicians into action.