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Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Earnings Analysis
- The political tide is turning in favor of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders.
- Activist Investors see normalized valuations over $20.
- Judge Sweeney has been ruling in favor of the plaintiffs.
The Fannie And Freddie Recapitalization Plan
- Clifford Rossi has proposed a genius capitalization transaction that hasn't been publicly considered.
- The sale of preferred stock, to avoid a fifth amendment takings, would flow through to Fannie and Freddie to fully recapitalize them.
- At 5%, the businesses make over $3 per share for common shareholders, and at 15x the businesses are worth $46 right now.
- Ackman just won a legal battle since the judge ruled against the government, which argued the case had been consolidated with those involuntarily dismissed.
Fannie Mae - '4 Documents, Produced In Discovery'
- Documents produced in discovery by the Defendant are now being used by the Plaintiff against the defendant. This suggests that discovery is unearthing valuable documents for the Plaintiff.
- If 100% of the profits of Fannie and Freddie continue go to the US Treasury in perpetuity, bankruptcies and receiverships can be less lucrative for creditors than conservatorships.
- Although the Iowa case isn't looking good and Judge Royce Lamberth set a precedent, the end-game and over half of my portfolio is to be long Fannie and Freddie.
- The government's proposed defense is more logical and understandable than the Plaintiff and this perpetuates an untenable situation, namely conservatorship.
Fannie Fourth Amendment To Come Before The End Of 2017
- The government is following the rule of law if you look at things this way. By 2017, a takings will occur if things do not change.
- The third amendment net worth sweep ensures that the government is paid back principle plus interest the fastest.
- The sweep is still an agreement to change the terms of a loan, not a new security. The original loan payback ceiling of principle plus interest still exists.
- Things will change or there will be a fourth amendment. The way things are going, a fourth amendment will come and the Enterprises will rebuild private capital starting in 2017.
U.S. Treasury Spokesman Says Only Way To End Conservatorship Is Legislation
- A Treasury Department spokesman on Friday said the Obama administration wouldn’t consider ending government control of mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without legislation.
- Treasury spokesman wrote in an email, “Comprehensive housing finance reform legislation is the only way to end the conservatorship.".
- THE COURT: "The Government is saying Plaintiffs lack standing, this Court lacks jurisdiction because the conservatorship is not part of the Government, it’s not a Government entity.".
Frannie Short Interest Is Skyrocketing
- Since the Lamberth dismissal, the short interest in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has been skyrocketing.
- Investors short stock when they have strong conviction that the stock is overvalued and will fall.
- Combined the short interest is now over $140M, up from $40M a month before, increasing by roughly $100M.
Ackman Bets On $100+ For Fannie And Freddie - New All-Time Highs
- If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were not bailed out, their book value starts at $31/share.
- Treasury takeover forced Fannie and Freddie to pay interest on accounting losses that Treasury triggered that were not necessary as evidenced by reversals.
- Federal regulators directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start purchasing $40 billion a month of underperforming mortgage bonds to bail out America.
- Ackman says that he expects the share value to be $23-$47, but opportunity cost with preferreds and risk profile demonstrate otherwise.
Fannie Mae Legal Ruling Expedites Endgame
- The Perry case was going to the appeals court regardless. That is to say the government would have appealed a win for private investors.
- Lamberth went out of his way to dismiss and in the process purposely closed doors. The lack of full Discovery makes it impossible to throw out.
- Using the AIG bailout as a barometer, one can easily see that the warrants are going to be voided for Fannie and Freddie.
Fannie Mae Ruling Means Ackman's Valuation Is Now $100-$250
- The ruling revealed that the government is following all of its laws and will be revealing Fannie and Freddie to private shareholders.
- The government is signaling that the warrants are going to be cancelled for anyone who actually reads filings and understands what is going on.
- No takings have occurred yet. Another amendment is to follow. The entities are in conservatorship and not receivership. The stock continues to trade.
Now Is Always The Time To Buy!
- If you don't own this stuff, buy it. If you do, buy more. Sell as much other stuff as you can to buy this stuff.
- Now is the time. If you discount your time from now till you die with a positive interest rate, the time is still right now.
- I have heard about the people that do not buy and only sell. I own and am buying what you need to buy and own as well.
It's Independence Day For Fannie And Freddie
- The Delaney-Carney-Himes housing reform finance proposal is intractable.
- The Johnson-Crapo revised Corker-Warner bill is dead.
- The prevailing risk is summary judgment coming from Judge Lambert.
Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Are Undercapitalized
- The Third Amendment Net Worth Sweep is illegal.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have paid back more than they borrowed.
- The largest investor in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the American taxpayer.
- The largest beneficiary of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the American taxpayer.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saved America during the crisis and are the best solution going forward.
- Yellow Media's 2014 Hockey Stick Stock Price
- Yellow Media Up Over 100% YTD, 100%+ To Run
- Yellow Media - Canada's Largest Internet Company - Buy Hand Over Fist
- Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside
- Yellow Media - Crisis Valuation Of $14.25
- Dex Media - More Bullish On The Merger
- Why I Love Dex One And SuperMedia And Why You Should Too
- Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA
- Dex Media: Likelihood Of Successful Merger Increases
- Dex Media: Less Risk Together Than Separate
- Super Media Is Best Of The Yellow Pages: Management Does Matter
- Buffett Would Buy SuperMedia If He Knew About It
- Lee Enterprises Should Top $2 Within 180 Days
- Top 10 Global Financial Institutions Exposed To Systemic Risk
- The Banking Crisis Revisited
- Tootsie Roll: Overvalued By All Metrics
- Sell Apple; Buy Sprint
- Stocks I'd Average Down On
- Bearish On Banks - Especially Bank Of America
- Gold - Don't Buy The Dip Yet