The BOJ is buying assets at 75% of the Fed's level in a Japanese economy only one-third the size of the U.S., says Kyle Bass, putting last night's new policy in perspective. Japan is trying to materially devalue its currency (FXY) while holding rates flat. The "economists and central bankers believe they can live in that nirvana," says Bass, but he believes they will lose control. JGBs (JGBT, JGBL, JGBD, JGBS) are in nirvana today, the 10-year off 11 bps to 0.45%. [View news story]
It's unfortunate that Kyle Bass doesn't understand the difference between a currency issuer and a currency user.
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
Warren Buffett's greatest source of mistakes if you ask him to summarize is to buy underperforming companies at great prices.
The fact is that, astonishing as it may be, in aggregate these two companies make $2.5B in revenue on a run rate basis right now.
That's a lot more than what most people can fathom. With EBITDA hovering around $1B on a run rate basis, they actually have better LFCF and EBITDA numbers than AMAZON.com.
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
We are well into integration and on schedule to have plans in place to start executing on an integrated basis beginning day 1 post close. We believe our plans will enable us to meet the new company's target for synergies, EBITDA and delivering the cash to continue to pay down our debt. We will start with revenue of over $2.5 billion, with digital revenues approaching $500 million, with over 650,000 customers and 3,100 marketing consultants and managers.
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
Jason, it's worth noting that the last time SPMD/Idearc went through this they provided projections and are missing their revenue projections but exceeding on EBITDA.
I like how your conservative estimates still value this in the same ballpark, especially considering the present price is far short of where we will likely be.
Yellow Media: Not Pretty, But Pretty Darn Cheap [View article]
Congratulations on finding your way to the most unloved and undiscovered playing field. Your article is in line with what I've been saying all along --- before they went CBCA and defaulted on their equity obligations. Good work.
Yellow Media - Crisis Valuation Of $14.25 [View article]
TJ,
It is absolutely true that Yellow Media management has burned their shareholders to the ground. I was curious, what two ways did they get you? As far as I can tell there really only was one big burn that occured a few months ago (CBCA) which came to be due to the cash flows being allocated with the assumption that they could refinance when they could not.
Dex Media - More Bullish On The Merger [View article]
Mike,
I am a simple man and can't speak to the short term price action of what will happen with that sort of announcement.
Perhaps it goes up. Perhaps it goes down. I suppose if you are rational you take a position and prepare to add if it goes down if you are concerned about this sort of thing.
Super Media Is Best Of The Yellow Pages: Management Does Matter [View article]
Just reviewed THQ,
Sorry for your loss. THQ seemed more like a case of the lack of actual cash flow with creditors taking the reigns in the case of the technical default.
My thoughts are simple. Dex Media is likely. Both SuperMedia and Dex One have creditor agreements large enough to effect it with a shareholder approval through a pre-packaged Chapter 11. I see this as an inevitability. With the merger I see the debt eventually trading at par as the numbers stabilize.
For Yellow Media, it's trading at a huge discount to its intrinsic value. I own both situations. I feel that right now the risk adjusted intrinsic value of both... Yellow Media should be trading at 4x LFCF and Dex Media should trade at around 1x LFCF. I intend to own them both for the next several years and really don't have expectations regarding what the price is going to do as I have to acknowledge that people don't consider these ideas investment worthy --- at least for now.
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
0.2 Dex
0.4386 Spmd
Shares Outstanding Pre Conversion:
Dex 50
Spmd 15.6
0.2*50+.4386*15.6=16.8
Amazon Has A Moat Without A Castle [View article]
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Detailed Dividend Sustainability Analysis [View article]
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
The BOJ is buying assets at 75% of the Fed's level in a Japanese economy only one-third the size of the U.S., says Kyle Bass, putting last night's new policy in perspective. Japan is trying to materially devalue its currency (FXY) while holding rates flat. The "economists and central bankers believe they can live in that nirvana," says Bass, but he believes they will lose control. JGBs (JGBT, JGBL, JGBD, JGBS) are in nirvana today, the 10-year off 11 bps to 0.45%. [View news story]
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
The fact is that, astonishing as it may be, in aggregate these two companies make $2.5B in revenue on a run rate basis right now.
That's a lot more than what most people can fathom. With EBITDA hovering around $1B on a run rate basis, they actually have better LFCF and EBITDA numbers than AMAZON.com.
http://bit.ly/16fHJRx
The metrics:
$3.4B EV for phone books.
$112B EV for Amazon.com
FCF for Amazon.com $395M
FCF for Dex Media $650M
Obviously one is hated and one is loved, no?
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
I like how your conservative estimates still value this in the same ballpark, especially considering the present price is far short of where we will likely be.
Yellow Media: Not Pretty, But Pretty Darn Cheap [View article]
http://bit.ly/14pDyQe
I have no intentions to sell and find these prices hilarious.
Yellow Media - Crisis Valuation Of $14.25 [View article]
It is absolutely true that Yellow Media management has burned their shareholders to the ground. I was curious, what two ways did they get you? As far as I can tell there really only was one big burn that occured a few months ago (CBCA) which came to be due to the cash flows being allocated with the assumption that they could refinance when they could not.
Glen
Dex Media - More Bullish On The Merger [View article]
I am a simple man and can't speak to the short term price action of what will happen with that sort of announcement.
Perhaps it goes up. Perhaps it goes down. I suppose if you are rational you take a position and prepare to add if it goes down if you are concerned about this sort of thing.
SPY Soars And Gold Falls As U.S. Borrows 24.6 Cents Of Every Dollar Spent In Fiscal 2013 [View article]
Yellow Media - Crisis Valuation Of $14.25 [View article]
http://bit.ly/Xq5rFG
Super Media Is Best Of The Yellow Pages: Management Does Matter [View article]
Sorry for your loss. THQ seemed more like a case of the lack of actual cash flow with creditors taking the reigns in the case of the technical default.
My thoughts are simple. Dex Media is likely. Both SuperMedia and Dex One have creditor agreements large enough to effect it with a shareholder approval through a pre-packaged Chapter 11. I see this as an inevitability. With the merger I see the debt eventually trading at par as the numbers stabilize.
For Yellow Media, it's trading at a huge discount to its intrinsic value. I own both situations. I feel that right now the risk adjusted intrinsic value of both... Yellow Media should be trading at 4x LFCF and Dex Media should trade at around 1x LFCF. I intend to own them both for the next several years and really don't have expectations regarding what the price is going to do as I have to acknowledge that people don't consider these ideas investment worthy --- at least for now.
Yellow Media - Crisis Valuation Of $14.25 [View article]
Yes, there are no more preferreds, they were wiped.