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Glen Bradford

 
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  • Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Are Undercapitalized [View article]
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts. This is what I was looking for.
    May 18 09:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's 2014 Hockey Stick Stock Price [View article]
    Chris,
    Appreciate your feedback. Thank you.
    Glen
    Jan 27 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's 2014 Hockey Stick Stock Price [View article]
    What is it like to live in Argentina and invest on the TSX? I've considered Buenos Aires for both living and investing. I've looked at a few companies, TEO and Codere that have operations in Argentina and it would seem to me that inflation is a lot higher than being reported --- and you might be able to benefit from that since it sounds like you're grounded in Canada.

    I am aware of the dumpage in the media for yellow media. The hate party for the company has been crowded, which is why the stock is up significantly in 2013 and will do the same in 2014.
    Jan 26 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's 2014 Hockey Stick Stock Price [View article]
    Well, in the last 8-9 months the stock is down like 2/3rds and the short interest has increased from like 2.6M shares to 5.3M shares. The share count is 17.6M shares. Yahoo says the float is 7M shares.

    Franklin, Paulson, Restructuring, and Bass account for 40% of the ownership here and most recently Bass appears to be a buyer.

    I heard something like Firefly or somewhere the past few weeks promoted DXM as their favorite zero and they think FCF will basically not exist in the next few years.

    Anyway, the point is that DXM has gotten clobbered, but it's just trading like a call option on the debt. Everyone is betting worst case scenario here and basically that leaves an insane amount of upside on the table if management comes through and does what they say they're doing.

    220 of EBITDA last quarter on an adjusted basis. you have to ask what that is worth?

    You figure that the debt is at 70 cents and the net debt is around 3.183B

    So the market is valuing that 220 of EBITDA in 3 months at $2.22B. aka 10x quarterly ebitda.

    they have around 2000 sales people... 600K clients

    anyway, yeah, this is not business as usual, things are changing and the changes that are being made appear to be coming from a perspective that i agree with as an industrial engineer and throughput/lean expert.

    anyway, these are my thoughts. looking forward to seeing the results from execution... and am willing to admit that execution risk is higher than it once was because they are actually changing what they are doing to a certain extent, but if i was them, i'd be making the changes that they say they are shooting to make... so... yeah, that's about it.
    Jan 25 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's 2014 Hockey Stick Stock Price [View article]
    Chris,

    You are correct. It appears that I was wrong:

    http://bit.ly/1e3rxZ3-

    http://bit.ly/1e3rxZ5

    It appears that RH Donnelley bought Dex Media (more or less a merger) in 2006.

    After the merger, R.H. Donnelley shareholders would own 47 percent of the company and Dex shareholders 53 percent.

    http://bit.ly/1e3rxZ9

    http://prn.to/1e3ryfm

    That would put their DEBT/EBITDA around 6.3x from an adjusted basis.

    Even still, the point of those notes was to illustrate that RHD and Idearc were, all things considered, pretty leveraged.

    Good catch. Thanks.
    Jan 25 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's 2014 Hockey Stick Stock Price [View article]
    I would say the warrants if you're looking for total return and you're not using leverage.
    Jan 25 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Being 'Right'; Focus On Risk Vs. Reward [View article]
    if martingale doesn't work, reverse it. RST.
    Jan 19 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media: Shares Have Tripled, But Upside Remains For Cash Flow Monster [View article]
    It is Ben Graham's expectation that the optimum capitalization structure for any enterprise includes senior securities to the extent that they may be safely issued and bought for investment.

    http://bit.ly/1gCyjr7

    (Security Analysis)
    Dec 16 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media - Canada's Largest Internet Company - Buy Hand Over Fist [View article]
    I am interested in undervalued businesses.

    I cannot value businesses based in the PRC because I can't differentiate what is real from what is not over there.
    Dec 16 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media: Shares Have Tripled, But Upside Remains For Cash Flow Monster [View article]
    In line with what I've been screaming, more or less.
    Dec 12 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media: Time Is Running Out For The Yellow Submarine [View article]
    I also thought about writing an article in opposition to the last one but decided not to. http://seekingalpha.co...

    Instead I just sidelined with the obvious. http://seekingalpha.co...

    While that author is purposefully ignorant of the capital structure I think that you are perhaps overly pessimistic about the realities.

    Thought 1: Look at Yellow Media in Canada and you will see bankruptcy situations where the equity holders do get something. So there is more gray area than you are willing to admit. Overall, however, I agree with your simplification and you've been reading research distressed's Stan Manoukian. Good job.

    Thought 2: Dex has been selling year-end loaded digital products.

    Thought 3: Adjusted EBITDA is more relevant than EBITDA in the case of Dex Media.

    Thought 4: Market prices for things are often wrong. If Dex Media can repurchase sub-par for the time being and stabilize the business in the next few years and debt prices return to par, a refinancing would result in the equity being worth much more.

    Thought 5: The entire industry is in distress trading at retarded valuations. When Yellow Media trades at a higher EV/EBITDA valuation, higher than the Debt/EBITDA of DXM, I would expect stability to return to the various prices of DXM Debt. YPG will lead the way from here.

    Thought 6: We have a lot of time on our hands. 2016 is a long ways off yet and basically the story here is execution. Can they stabilize things? Well, the risk/reward here is pretty good. If they can stabilize per their debt slides then this stock is worth $150+ in a few years. If things all just go to crap, then you're right that the stock is probably worth $0.

    Thought 7: Your put option /// long YLWDF/YLWWF strategy is probably suboptimal to just being long Yellow Media.

    Thought 8: I think you did an excellent job of blowing apart the poorly written article a few days ago. That said, I think that overall this article is more negative than it should be given the way things are going. I think that taking both articles into account, a reader can make a good judgment call, but on a standalone basis, both articles aren't really complete, but that is my perception.

    Thought 9: I want to know what else you own or are looking at. Keep me posted! globalspeculation at gmail.com
    Nov 27 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media: Time Is Running Out For The Yellow Submarine [View article]
    My overall perception:
    The short thesis isn't in the bag yet, and the P/LFCF ratio is probably more dangerous to the short side than the EV/EBITDA ratio is to the long side.
    Nov 27 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media Up Over 100% YTD, 100%+ To Run [View article]
    http://bit.ly/18HI3vA

    http://bit.ly/18HI0QD

    I have a team of people that puts together those spreadsheets. They are made up using assumptions that we make and historically we have been more accurate than the analysts.

    I recommend http://bit.ly/11MNYvC
    Nov 27 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    I can walk to chinatown. It's only 2.6 miles through Obama's backyard.
    http://goo.gl/maps/5lO8k

    I think you confuse my remarks with pessimism. There is thunderous upside here. It all comes down to execution.

    Shoot me an email with your reasons for your beliefs. globalspeculation at gmail.com or give me a ring 7655434175

    You're crazy but I like you.

    Here in DC, the currency is gossip and rumors. I know a thing or two about bureaucrats. At least you acknowledge that bankers are panicky. My thesis is that right now it could go either way. I'm hoping that you're right. I stand to make a fortune if you are!
    Nov 21 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    After reading this, I am confident that you have no idea what you are talking about.

    I like the enthusiasm, however.

    The gap in your understanding is one where you do not understand how companies are capitalized or what makes them go into bankruptcies that wipe out equity holders. Yellow Media is cheaper than Dex Media. http://bit.ly/14peDxp

    Also, the digital business of Yellow Media is a larger percentage of revenue than it is for Dex.

    You may be right, but you must realize that the stock of Dex Media trades like a call option on the future of the company. Will the creditors force it under? Will they be able to stabilize EBITDA?

    I think at the end of the day Dex Media will likely make it through and these are great prices to get involved but I am not certain.

    I do believe that $150 is certainly possible.

    I encourage you to look harder. I recommend buying a subscription to researchdistressed.com and having a conversation with Stan if you have a substantial amount of money at work here, $1M++.
    Nov 21 03:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
487 Comments
403 Likes