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Glen Bradford  

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  • China MediaExpress Holdings: 28 Days Later [View article]
    A note I'd make:

    I said:

    1. There will be more bus contracts. I believe right now CCME has 27.2K intercity buses -- roughly half of the intercity buses out there.

    That figure is according to China's Ministry of Transportation (MOT) and I pulled it from SEC filings and the CTR report. It's my understanding that firms that do independent research believe that this market is roughly 90,000, twice as large as the MOT predicts it to be. Also, I believe there is a tour bus market of 100,000 buses there with higher CPM's if they go for it. Probably higher costs too --- but profitable? Yes.
    Feb 14, 2011. 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CCME Fraud Claims Don't Hold Up [View article]
    Marty - take a look at this if you haven't already.

    Not only what you said, but there's practically no incentive for them to run a huge fraud:
    Feb 9, 2011. 06:27 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CCME Fraud Claims Don't Hold Up [View article]

    I spent hours and hours trying to prove that CCME was a fraud and was unable to do so.

    Feb 9, 2011. 05:58 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Sky One Plummets on Lowered Guidance. [View article]
    No position? That's rather misleading don't you think? I am pretty sure you take pride in being short.
    Jan 22, 2011. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China Media Express a Top Tier Company? You Decide [View article]
    Quick question: What's your take on the price target estimates that value this company below $50, $100, even $150?

    Have you looked into the cognitive bias called the anchoring effect?

    Just curious if you think that is in play, just as I do. Analysts do a good job of predicting current stock price --- I would say that 80% of their price prediction is the current price and 20% of their price prediction is what they think it's actually worth.

    80%($20)+20%($160) = $32 ~ Their price target.
    Jan 18, 2011. 08:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lunch with Marc Faber: Predictions and Insights [View article]
    My understanding is that there's a shortage of supply of chinese long term debt. That's why their yield curve is inverting.

    To me, that's not as big of a deal. It would be different if they had capital markets that actually were able to meet investors' demand over there.
    Jan 12, 2011. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Draws Interest - Some of It the Wrong Kind [View article]
    Agreed. My friend from Hawaii was trying to buy the whole company (CCTR) and elect me onto the board/president until I advised him that it was impossible due to the share structure/scaminess of the company. I think that mistake cost him somewhere in the 5-6 figures.
    Jan 12, 2011. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Draws Interest - Some of It the Wrong Kind [View article]
    You must first question incentives. If you had access to information on the ground like Geoinvesting does, would you tell everyone or would you keep it to yourself and invest yourself first?

    I check geoinvesting occasionally to gut check myself. I am always looking for reasons to not own companies, and it just so happens that I end up owning stuff occasionally.

    Also note that Zack is not as optimistic as he used to be and is stepping out of the space and is referring everyone to Maj, who has received all the information from Zack.

    I'll just say this, Geoinvesting and "shady" in my opinion based on my limited information should not be used in the same sentence. Maj is overzealous about certain things and likes to check everything before making a public statement. I can't really hate on that. Hope this helps Marty, but Geoinvesting in my opinion is a value-add.
    Jan 12, 2011. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Draws Interest - Some of It the Wrong Kind [View article]
    jonsjon1223, I appreciate this insight.

    I never thought of it like that. You must be right.
    Jan 12, 2011. 04:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perils of Investing in China [View article]
    Excellent article Zack.
    Jan 12, 2011. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: The Best Stock in the World [View article]
    Q4 will crush guidance. They are underguiding to the max.
    Dec 17, 2010. 04:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: The Best Stock in the World [View article]
    Markets are efficient? Is that your hypothesis?

    So we have a null hypothesis H0

    H0 = Markets are efficient

    H1 = Markets are not efficient

    Can we agree that making above average returns on less risk would support the rejection of H0?

    Do you know who came up with the efficient market hypothesis?

    The efficient-market hypothesis was developed by Professor Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business as an academic concept of study through his published Ph.D. thesis in the early 1960s at the same school. It was widely accepted up until the 1990s, when behavioral finance economists, who had been a fringe element, became mainstream.[6] Empirical analyses have consistently found problems with the efficient-market hypothesis, the most consistent being that stocks with low price to earnings (and similarly, low price to cash-flow or book value) outperform other stocks.


    Look, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe you're wrong. One thing is certain, we can't both be correct. It is or it is not. Is that it? It is.
    Dec 17, 2010. 02:43 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Short of 2010-2011? [View article]
    Can I at least reference that they both aren't profitable? Youtube is almost breaking even. Youku isn't even close. But seriously, best wishes going long this one if that is what you choose to do.

    Why Pay 10x what a company is worth when you can pay 1/10x?

    99% off of the sticker price that you'd be paying for Youku. That's what I'm into. Granted, I'd rather pay a lower price than a higher price and I guess that makes me crazy.
    Dec 12, 2010. 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Short of 2010-2011? [View article]
    All I am saying is that in the long run, buying this and expecting to make money is foolish. I don't care what traders are willing to pay for it in the short term. Investors discounting future cash flows are clearly not very involved in this one.
    Dec 12, 2010. 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Ideas for Longwei Petroleum [View article]
    I was emailed this response from a highly respected investor I bounce Ideas off of and I think it's useful:

    Option A1 is certainly bad if management shows they are willing to let go of their shares at this terrible evaluation... If they want to sell they should sell it directly to some long-term institutional holder.

    A2 rocks =). A rights offering is a great way to increase the public float without diluting shareholders who are willing to participate in the offering.

    B1: Debt, halleluah. Chinese hate debt though =P.

    C1: I don't think such a tiny dividend would do anything, sadly. It would need to be a reasonable one and the company is not a high-margin one so I don't think thats in the cards.

    D1: I wish!

    D2: Thats what I would do if I was management, LOL. Then come back to the US as a regular IPO at 15x P/E =P.

    E1: I'd worry that the stock would then become marginable and shortable =P. Short interest would definitely rise if they did a R/S IMO.

    F1: That stands for F-Option-1 right?
    Oct 1, 2010. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment