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Glen Bradford

 
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  • Financial Markets in Process of Bottoming [View article]
    Get excited!

    You may be a little slow but you still can make a lot of money if you play your cards right.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Apr 16 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks [View article]
    I left out a couple things, I'll add them as I remember them. Another feeling of mine is that I've been looking through lots of insurance and bank financial statements closing out 2008. It seems to be a fairly large trend that they were writing off more than they had to. Looking at this from a game theory perspective, it makes sense. They may have wanted to close out a terrible year by writing off so much that they could avoid write-offs in 2009. Looking at things this way, and the adjustments of mark-to-market to mark-to-profit, I believe that these huge write-offs will slowly start factoring in over the next couple years as unrealized gains. I don't fully expect these institutions to bring them all back in 1 quarter. Analysts love good trends and when mark-to-market comes back, the companies are going to want to be able to continue posting profits. It's as if they all have a safety bank account now that they can start dipping into in order to normalize their future earnings. I have also been picking up HBAN. My disclaimer is that by diversifying across C, FITB, HBAN, AIG; you can land a couple big winners (400%+ in less than a year) and probably tank one. Overall, you'll outperform the market. That's why I fully recommend FAS.

    Hope this helps.


    On Apr 14 07:42 PM suttoda wrote:

    > very nice
    Apr 15 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic [View instapost]
    That sounded bad. I think you've got something. I meant to illustrate how I miscategorized you along with the hoodlums of seekingalpha like David Fry.

    Glen
    Apr 14 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic [View instapost]
    Steven,

    Allow me to start by illustrating I hate chartists and I categorized you as one.

    I just checked your charts. When the VIX breaks down and the S&P is breaking up like it is. That's terribly bullish. I think that right now, the people pricing the VIX are taking into account all the good news that's going to be shoved down the market's throat thanks to financial porn (cnbc, forbes, ibj, etc.).

    Looks like the market broke down today and the VIX went down too.

    Hurray!

    my email is gbradfor at purdue.edu --- shoot me an email.
    Apr 14 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks [View article]
    I also agree with your interpretation on the VIX. I noticed it as well. When the market is crashing and the VIX is stable, as it was these past 2 months... I turned super bullish. I don't really have an opinion on the VIX right now. My opinion is that Financials are still severly underpriced based on the EPS that they're going to put out this year (2009). I also believe that even though banks are going to be cheating their way into earnings by mark-to-profit and no interest rates --- they are a steal right now. I am a bank-hater at heart.

    I think this week financials will run. The dumb money out there will see banks going up and buy in --- because they see an upward trend. The smart money has already bought in. There is 90% dumb money to smart money. Get ready to ride. These things are going to be blasting off. That's just my opinion.

    I didn't mention FITB. I like that one too because all the day traders I know cant stop yelling about it. My disclaimer is that buying FAS is the for sure winner. The rest are all hypothetically gambles. Citigroup can't go under and will probably go x3 this week. Just wait till the mutual funds can get it at $5.

    I base most of my analysis on discounted cash flows. In a situation like this, I look at historic cash flows and ask myself: "Will this company survive?"

    Hope this helps.


    On Apr 13 08:16 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

    > Check out my piece: VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic
    >
    > seekingalpha.com/insta...
    >
    >
    > There is panic buying after hours in Citigroup, now up to $4.20.
    > Also BAC.
    >
    > Here is an addendum to my piece:
    > Question from this posting on MarketOracle.com:
    >
    > VIX showing buying panic?
    >
    > Just wanted to ask about your interpretation of the VIX. When I saw
    > the VIX break down below 40, I took it as a sign that we'll see less
    > panic in general, on the long side and the short side. Options implied
    > volatility works both ways. Why did you see it as a set up for panic
    > buying?
    >
    > Reply:
    >
    > It's interesting that there are many divergent interpretations of
    > this indicator that has become widely monitored.
    >
    > First, clearly historical volatility has not diminished in this bull
    > phase...we all know that this is "the fastest rally since 1933."
    >
    >
    > The VIX tends to move inversely to the market. Technically the index
    > had reached a point that demanded resolution implying a sharp break
    > in either direction. A break down from the 200 DMA and the triangle
    > formation would imply a continuation of the bull trend in stocks...and
    > a sharp one. A move away from the 200 DMA is a fundamental change
    > of trend. It means something very important is happening. Bears had
    > been expecting an upside resolution to the VIX, coinciding with a
    > top in the "bear market rally". They have tried to short the market
    > again at this level on the blanket assumption that the bear must
    > return. The breakdown in the VIX in an indication (and a strong one)
    > that they are probably wrong. It is possible that on Tuesday or Wednesday
    > there may be a sharp pullback in the markets and the signal that
    > the VIX has given may prove to be a bull trap (or bear trap from
    > the perspective of the VIX chart). However that would need to happen
    > in the next few days or the shorts will start to cover and sideline
    > money will pile on driving the market to the 200 DMA on the SPX.
    >
    Apr 13 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 Tuition Breaking Stocks [View article]
    blues,

    My estimates of CNO's EPS are now $0.85

    I'd be all sold out of this position at a P/E of 15. That's $12.75

    Further, in the current economic climate, I'd be all sold out at $8 --- taking advantage of other opportunities.

    I'm going to start selling around $6.

    Hope this helps,

    Glen


    On Apr 11 07:02 PM Just singing the blues wrote:

    > Glen,
    >
    > Great stuff, as usual --- thanks.
    >
    > Mffais show that Morgan Stanley bought 636,500 shares.
    >
    > With this type of news, do you think CNO will likely run closer to
    > $6.80 or $13.60?
    Apr 11 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 Tuition Breaking Stocks [View article]
    hoooon,

    funky does not mean seasonal. a seasonal company is still a normal company. good news! it gives those that understand how to deseasonalize company returns an edge. good news --- i am one of those people with an edge. Further good news, I'm going through a bunch of stocks this weekend and i'm looking through yours. Here's what i think in short.

    cnoa looks good --- just watch out for uncollectible recievables, in Q3 2008, pretty much all sales were in A/R. i'm watching this one and probably going to pick up some shares. i am not really worried about the a/r because they were mostly accumulated because well hey! Q3 is seasonal. this was a record breaking year. wooohoo! plus, the CEO said that Q4 is set to be another blockbuster as well. go figure. the stocks i mentioned in this article, unlike ors and cnoa, have good A/R and cash from operations. but CNOA looks great. ORS could easily be an issue. MCI in 1995 had a big issue that i think is possible at ORS essentially propagating escallations of committment throughout small backboneless subsidiaries. the issue is the CEO only bought 500K Shares when over the last year, insiders sold out 20,000K shares. see what i'm talking about?

    chrn --- doesnt have any revenues.. yuck. not interested in gambling. they just stopped getting revenues. Brilliant!

    check up on CYXN's outstanding shares and convertibles, my estimates were half of what they should have been, since i believe therea are twice as many shares outstanding

    dont like wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.

    Also, Granger: I don't like TECH. Too expensive.

    found this:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    meanwhile, I came across FEED, also looks like it should triple up to $7 at this point. just my opinion. but again, not as great a deal as cnoa.



    On Apr 08 03:12 PM hooooon wrote:

    > good article... glen, any insight on cnoa or chrn? both have numbers
    > in line with nwd, although chrn has funky (seasonal?) books. other
    > chinese lottery tickets i own and like: cyxn, ltus, ors (missed out
    > on $1 spike), ghii. in the usa: wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.
    >
    > also took glenns good advice on cno; that is my large cap, stable
    > company.
    Apr 11 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012? [View article]
    My little tidbit, is that screening ETFs using yahoo finance isn't a good idea.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Glen
    Apr 6 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Phoenix Stock Update [View article]
    Forgot to mention, I have checked and verified CNO.

    So far I'm up over 300% in a couple weeks.

    I'm still buying, in fact I bought today.

    Glen
    Apr 6 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Phoenix Stock Update [View article]
    Your strategy looks very familiar to that of the later years Graham. Check 2 1 2, Greenblatt.

    Mohnish is making a killing applying this strategy.

    www.gurufocus.com/news...

    I like your style. Consider yourself followed.
    Apr 6 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take a Risk with Conseco [View article]
    My article was re-written. The initial title was "Conseco's Got Money", and the article was edited down to bare bones. There was more information on debt covenants and how having this doubling of cash that is not in the Q4 numbers pushes them into greener territory. The issue here is that Conseco may have more investment losses in the future. This issue is slowly being resolved as you notice that the global financial markets are being helicoptered with life saver money.

    Break out the surf board and catch the wave of opportunity.


    On Mar 23 09:48 AM alivewweb wrote:

    > The point of speculation is outrageous returns in a short period
    > of time and the point of investing is the same but the time span
    > is different. The stock market has proven once again it is not the
    > place to put your money when you think you are saving it.
    >
    > In hindsight we were all speculating to different degrees as we are
    > now. Even those watching from the sidelines with their hordes of
    > cash. Players who are down now should realize it is a long ball game
    > and like the Superbowl you are in it to win it.
    >
    > Many of the best speculations have occurred when investors stop counting
    > the companies assets and get caught up in the downward price spiral
    > of the stock. If you believe in the company and its managers then
    > double down or triple down or quadruple down.
    > It Is the only way to win this game.
    >
    > CNO is also a personal speculation of mine as is GNW, ACAS and FMD.
    Mar 23 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's a Good Time to Buy Google [View article]
    I agree. Obviously.

    www.stockpickr.com/pro.../
    Mar 23 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This (Finally) the Bottom? [View article]
    I don't think you addressed any of the important characteristics of what might actually indicate a market bottom. For example: seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Futhermore: seekingalpha.com/artic...

    The issue with the 2nd one would be that 1/3 of equities are trading below book value because asset valuations have fallen off a cliff. Book value is a bad benchmark for pricing companies in a financial crisis.
    Mar 21 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials Are Masking the Market's Potential [View article]
    The P/E is simply a indicator of the future growth potential of the stock market. How does a earnings of $40 get a price of $776? That's a P/E of 19.6. That would indicate expected future growth over the next 20 years of about 5% from 2008. That's fairly optimistic. I can see why you're confused. That's why this article is great! It indicates that a lot of the losses are nitch losses, if you will.

    Under those estimates, we are pulling a P/E of about 10. That would yield little to no growth over the next 20 years. Factor in the probability that financial institutions are likely to be profitable again in the next couple years and the P/E shrinks further.

    Personally, I think the estimate of 1050 might be a little too bullish for the time being, but it's definately not out of question.

    Now that you have your fair value estimate for the S&P 500, try and compute fair values for the other large countries out there, and you begin to see the big picture, that eastern europe, russia, and other economies have been pummeled. When it comes to buying discounted cash flows, the less I can pay for future earnings the more willing I am to buy those instead of others.

    I'm just saying that, great. USA is cheap. But, based on my assumptions that US treasuries are a bubble, and that eventually, global uncertainty settling will probably take a bite out of the dollar and commodities will reinflate back to normalized levels... I'm just saying keep your head up. Good analysis.

    Can we get someone to analyze the bailout again? I want to see all the numbers added up.

    Glen

    On Mar 20 12:37 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

    > Siegel pimps his book and the funds he is pushing and, like most
    > "economists" doesn't know what he is talking about. Anyone who believes
    > the economy, and that lagging indicator - the stock market - is returning
    > to future heights in less than five years is drowning in wishful
    > thinking. We are a debtor nation with most of our GDP going to debt
    > service.
    >
    > How a $40.00 S & P earnings estimates gets more than a 10 P/E
    > in this economic/political environment is beyond me and my investable
    > funds. If you want history, and I don't because of the dynamics
    > of today, you can use the 7 P/E of the Seventies. As long as we
    > are guessing, why not? Kind of changes the story doesn't it for
    > today's dilettantes?
    >
    > The foregoing article is based on the wishful thinking of a left/liberal
    > economists. Hardly the guru a thoughtful Free Market investor would
    > believe and put his hard earned money on. Remember DOW 30,000 and
    > the geniuses who outrageously predicted on the losers media, CNBC,
    > that one should easily get 30% a year on their 401k as far as on
    > could see. That was 1999-early 2000. What was Mr. Market discounting
    > then?
    >
    > Like social tennis, the stock market is a loser's game.
    Mar 20 01:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conseco, Inc. Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    CNO looks like a lot of upside to me. The downside is on March 17th if the auditors don't like them. Otherwise, this roller coaster is set to explode through the roof.

    I came across CNO through my friend and old school-mate Patrick Davenport. Below are a few quotes about him and CNO
    Specifically with CNO: they won't default and if they do, they will recontract their debt.

    with respect to default: If they do, it won't matter.

    Companies rest covenents all the time.

    Conseco will post a profit in the 2nd quarter if not the first.

    It takes about a quarter to go into both serious bankruptcy procedures as well as debt collection.

    Therefore, it will be hard to convince a judge of the need for either bankruptcy or insolvency when they post a profit.

    The only reason they didn't in the 4th quarter was because they were spinning off their bad policies. They already warned the market in the 3rd that they were releasing their long term care policies in 2009.

    If you take the spin off out of the equation, they were positive.

    Therefore in the long run their problems are not real. However, perception of reality drive the stock.
    I look for duh plays as well. My definition of duh is a stock whose under 2 dollars but has a 52 week high of more than double the current trading value
    Mar 14 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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