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Glen Bradford

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  • Is This (Finally) the Bottom? [View article]
    I don't think you addressed any of the important characteristics of what might actually indicate a market bottom. For example:


    The issue with the 2nd one would be that 1/3 of equities are trading below book value because asset valuations have fallen off a cliff. Book value is a bad benchmark for pricing companies in a financial crisis.
    Mar 21 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials Are Masking the Market's Potential [View article]
    The P/E is simply a indicator of the future growth potential of the stock market. How does a earnings of $40 get a price of $776? That's a P/E of 19.6. That would indicate expected future growth over the next 20 years of about 5% from 2008. That's fairly optimistic. I can see why you're confused. That's why this article is great! It indicates that a lot of the losses are nitch losses, if you will.

    Under those estimates, we are pulling a P/E of about 10. That would yield little to no growth over the next 20 years. Factor in the probability that financial institutions are likely to be profitable again in the next couple years and the P/E shrinks further.

    Personally, I think the estimate of 1050 might be a little too bullish for the time being, but it's definately not out of question.

    Now that you have your fair value estimate for the S&P 500, try and compute fair values for the other large countries out there, and you begin to see the big picture, that eastern europe, russia, and other economies have been pummeled. When it comes to buying discounted cash flows, the less I can pay for future earnings the more willing I am to buy those instead of others.

    I'm just saying that, great. USA is cheap. But, based on my assumptions that US treasuries are a bubble, and that eventually, global uncertainty settling will probably take a bite out of the dollar and commodities will reinflate back to normalized levels... I'm just saying keep your head up. Good analysis.

    Can we get someone to analyze the bailout again? I want to see all the numbers added up.


    On Mar 20 12:37 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

    > Siegel pimps his book and the funds he is pushing and, like most
    > "economists" doesn't know what he is talking about. Anyone who believes
    > the economy, and that lagging indicator - the stock market - is returning
    > to future heights in less than five years is drowning in wishful
    > thinking. We are a debtor nation with most of our GDP going to debt
    > service.
    > How a $40.00 S & P earnings estimates gets more than a 10 P/E
    > in this economic/political environment is beyond me and my investable
    > funds. If you want history, and I don't because of the dynamics
    > of today, you can use the 7 P/E of the Seventies. As long as we
    > are guessing, why not? Kind of changes the story doesn't it for
    > today's dilettantes?
    > The foregoing article is based on the wishful thinking of a left/liberal
    > economists. Hardly the guru a thoughtful Free Market investor would
    > believe and put his hard earned money on. Remember DOW 30,000 and
    > the geniuses who outrageously predicted on the losers media, CNBC,
    > that one should easily get 30% a year on their 401k as far as on
    > could see. That was 1999-early 2000. What was Mr. Market discounting
    > then?
    > Like social tennis, the stock market is a loser's game.
    Mar 20 01:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conseco, Inc. Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    CNO looks like a lot of upside to me. The downside is on March 17th if the auditors don't like them. Otherwise, this roller coaster is set to explode through the roof.

    I came across CNO through my friend and old school-mate Patrick Davenport. Below are a few quotes about him and CNO
    Specifically with CNO: they won't default and if they do, they will recontract their debt.

    with respect to default: If they do, it won't matter.

    Companies rest covenents all the time.

    Conseco will post a profit in the 2nd quarter if not the first.

    It takes about a quarter to go into both serious bankruptcy procedures as well as debt collection.

    Therefore, it will be hard to convince a judge of the need for either bankruptcy or insolvency when they post a profit.

    The only reason they didn't in the 4th quarter was because they were spinning off their bad policies. They already warned the market in the 3rd that they were releasing their long term care policies in 2009.

    If you take the spin off out of the equation, they were positive.

    Therefore in the long run their problems are not real. However, perception of reality drive the stock.
    I look for duh plays as well. My definition of duh is a stock whose under 2 dollars but has a 52 week high of more than double the current trading value
    Mar 14 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Top China Plays [View article]
    CHID: Negative EPS decreasing quarterly revenues, Don't like it

    OPAI: Looks great, huge growth and selling for less than last reported cash. Huge opportunity here.

    UTVG: Great and cheap, but it's not cheap enough for me. projecting 20% growth with a P/E of 2 is awesome though! That's a 10-bagger potentially.

    CHCG: Great, Cheap, appears to have bottomed, worst case scenerio $0.38 as in cash/share... that's cash-total liabilities = lowest market cap. Growing in revs and eps. huge headlines, $8 high, so way off of high.

    CMFO: $0.95 cent bottom (cash-total liabilities), lots of growth potential with new contract. year over year down. this is a turn around, not my type of game

    ALRC: I just dont want to mess with this, the whole 100:3284 split is ... mind numbing.

    LTON: also looks to be a turnaround play. not interested

    CNTF: bad Q4, like it more than gro.. well no. i dont like either now that i'm looking at the numbers

    GRO: Don't like it.

    On Mar 11 08:14 AM theonlyteacher wrote:

    > ALSO, you can see GRO cash per share is 2.75
    > cntf cash per share is 1.87
    > eps is 0.18
    > lton
    > alrc.ob cmfo.ob chcg.ob utvg.ob opai.ob chid.ob
    > may be there is some risks and rewards in them
    > thanks
    Mar 13 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Top China Plays [View article]
    I was unaware the chairman was obligated to buy back stock. That's a plus, I do know that a lot of the options are exercisable significantly higher than the present price.

    My calendar says March 12th for Earnings Release
    Q4 2008 New Dragon Asia Corporation Earnings Release

    I put a lot of my thoughts on a discussion board and my website. The viral networking lowers my time to find great stock investment opportunities. Highly useful

    On Mar 10 09:56 AM anil mewara wrote:

    > Glen,
    > I am very impressed by your research and sharing your knowledge.
    > I came upon your article as I am an investor in NWD.
    > I have a substantial stake in it and have averaged my cost of 100,000
    > shares to .29 .
    > I know it ought to rebound, was expecting earning release yesterday
    > but did not happen.
    > also, the chairman has to buy back a Million dollars worth of shares
    > by July 09, he has to date purchased only 100K worth.
    > Your thoughts please.
    > Regards
    > Anil
    > On Mar 09 05:46 PM Glen Bradford wrote:
    Mar 10 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Top China Plays [View article]
    On the note of CYXI, Not mentioned

    I had some of my chinese speaking friends try and shoot an email to the CEO in simple chinese, and I've discussed the situation with the CFO. I haven't gotten anything useful:

    The following is what I've heard from Ren Hu

    First of all the recent PR was not about the stock price of the company, not about the disputes between Ms Jiao and her investors in China.

    The company has not decided what to do with its assets. Ms. Jiao is still in negotiation with the investors.

    What special in me that caught your attention?

    Which company are you talking about, CKGT or CYXI?

    Basically I noticed he hopped off CKGT and onto CYXI.

    Scary stuff... but the upside is 100x. Rule #1 is don't lose money, and I just dont know.

    On Mar 10 08:10 AM theonlyteacher wrote:

    > The loan is on the ceo not the company, how can they shout down the
    > operation, it is soooo funny these chiease companies
    Mar 10 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China a Good ETF Bet? [View article]
    I like PGJ over FXI. Furthermore HAO and CAF look good.

    I don't like FXI because it's financially overweighted in my opinion. That said, I understand that if they adjust mark to market and bring back the uptick rule in the US... Maybe FXI is a good idea?

    Mar 10 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Top China Plays [View article]
    My understanding is that there are two big ETFs to invest in china, FXI and PGJ. PGJ is my favorite of the two because FXI is financially heavy.

    So, the question is why would i do my own diversification when I could have an ETF diversify for me? When you have a growing company selling at less than a price multiple of 2, the upside potential is more than 500%. Risk here is not knowing what you're doing. Risk is mitigated by doing your research on the companies and understanding what you're buying as well as not putting all your eggs in one basket. That said, all my eggs are shifting to the china basket. If china decides to eliminate foreign investment, then I'm toast. Otherwise, the upside on FXI or PGJ is probably 200%-300% in a couple years.

    Same goes for HAO and CAF, just saw them for the first time. Claymore updated their website layout since the last time I visited. If you're an individual investor and just want to make money and can't read a balance sheet or income statement, and realize that china's price/gdp ratio is great as well as their potential for future growth. I definately agree. What I am doing by specifically choosing these 9 companies is choosing companies that if i diversify my money into, I believe will outperform every single index that is created, even with a few of them going bankrupt (even though I try to choose ones that bankruptcy is highly unlikely. I would have said the same thing about CYXI a couple weeks ago. The picture changed, not sure why.

    Isn't buying an ETF speculating on a handful anyway? I don't believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, if that helps.

    On Mar 09 12:30 PM fran wrote:

    > author, please advise--
    > why would one speculate on a handful when an ETF/CEF could offer
    > growth and diversity protection, in a relatively novel environment[eg.
    > HAO[etf], CAF[cef]]???
    Mar 9 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Calls a Bottom [View article]
    Barron's is probably a little bit early on this one. But, who knows for sure. Stocks are cheap. Your average investor doesn't know how to price companies, so who cares? Welcome to short term game theory.
    Mar 8 07:10 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Biotech in Review: Almost-Deals and Earnings [View article]
    You might want to point out that AOB is going to come out with blockbuster earnings tomorrow. Just FYI.
    Mar 8 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Emerging Markets, BRIC by BRIC [View article]
    I agree, for the people who want to buy china, buy PGJ instead of FXI. For the people that want to make a lot of money instead of just some money, I have some other ideas that are too small for seekingalpha. Nobody likes penny stocks. But, if I can get something that goes from a couple pennies to a couple dollars, and it should based on discounted cash flows... we'll see who is who.
    Mar 8 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Export Driven Growth Only? [View article]
    Furthermore, upon investigation, PGJ isn't as financially heavy as FXI is. FXI is 41.5% financials and PGJ is heaviest in IT with 26.5%

    go with PGJ

    On Mar 08 10:43 AM Glen Bradford wrote:

    > Good. I agree. I might try and stay away from FXI, not sure about
    > PGJ, seeing as how FXI is financially heavy.
    > The way to do this is to buy specific companies that get their profits
    > from china. This does require you to do your own research, or to
    > hop on board with someone that knows what they're doing. What Chinese
    > stocks are you looking at? A couple of the big names that I enjoy:
    > AOB, YGE, SOHU. That said, I'm looking into companies where they're
    > selling at prices where I actually feel bad for whomever is selling
    > it to me.
    Mar 8 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Export Driven Growth Only? [View article]
    Good. I agree. I might try and stay away from FXI, not sure about PGJ, seeing as how FXI is financially heavy.

    The way to do this is to buy specific companies that get their profits from china. This does require you to do your own research, or to hop on board with someone that knows what they're doing. What Chinese stocks are you looking at? A couple of the big names that I enjoy: AOB, YGE, SOHU. That said, I'm looking into companies where they're selling at prices where I actually feel bad for whomever is selling it to me.
    Mar 8 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Is Born, 2009 [View article]
    We just touched what would defined by my models as the end of that "bull" and the beginning of the bear again since the DOW crossed 7200.

    Thanks for following up. Looks like I'm going to have to eat my own words on this one.

    Most of my portfolio has shifted into chinese companies:


    On Feb 02 04:32 PM Equity Has No Clue wrote:

    > Hey Glen, how's that Bull Market treating you?
    Feb 25 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany, China Faring Better in the Downturn [View article]
    You probably should have used the Shanghai index or the Hang Seng. FXI is financially heavy weighted.

    I'll help you out. On stockcharts the symbol is: $SSEC, $HSI
    Feb 25 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment