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Glen Bradford

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  • A Long-Term Inflation Play: Short Treasuries, Long TIPS [View article]
    I agree, TBT. Woohoo!
    Jan 7 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Is Born, 2009 [View article]
    fubsy, you said this was the third 20% rally in this bear. would you mind pointing out which dates and which index you're looking at?


    On Jan 04 08:26 PM fubsy_cooter wrote:

    > Your projection that rallying 20% would mean the death of the bear
    > ignores that all bear markets have steep and rich rallies, in fact
    > this is the third 20% rally in this bear. Other bears have had rallies
    > as steep as 35%. This bear is far from over. My projection is for
    > the S&P to hit below 600 this year based on S&P earnings
    > of 40.00 with a 15 multiple (this is a ocnservative estimate). I
    > give a reasonable chance for the bear to last several more years,
    > and eventually take us to an S&P 500 value of 250 to 300. This
    > being my global depression scenario. But I will bet anyone that
    > the bottom is not in.
    Jan 4 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Is Born, 2009 [View article]
    investor88:

    If you want to tip-toe in, go for it. But, I wouldn't advise playing shorts anymore. There's a lot of evidence for a bottom. Emerging Markets are more of what I'm looking at for evidence, but they're carrying gains into the Developed Markets and Oil is set for a reversal in february if nothing else prevails thanks to seasonal analysis.


    On Jan 04 09:51 AM investor88 wrote:

    > "If they start falling I will start playing negative" otherwise give
    > market benefit of doubt. Fair enough, can tip toe in?
    Jan 4 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beat the Bull Market With Oil and Russia Plays [View article]
    I'm buying TBT tomorrow.


    On Jan 04 04:11 PM Glen Bradford wrote:

    > I own RSX, DXO, CEDC, and NOV
    Jan 4 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beat the Bull Market With Oil and Russia Plays [View article]
    The purpose of the Bull Market article is to set the stage for buying stocks. If I'm learning anything, buying stocks in the middle of a bear market, say last June for example, isn't the call. You have to wait for signs of the end of the bear and the start of the bull. So, that article set that stage. Now that I'm feeling bullish, I'm looking for plays to ride back the reversion of strong means. DOW looks great (Dow chemical) right now at $15.41


    On Jan 04 10:08 AM Against Aphobus wrote:

    > I replied to your other article calling for a 2009 bull market (see
    > below). This one seems far more valid. Oil should do well. Stocks
    > have many issues left to overcome.
    >
    > On Jan 04 10:03 AM Against Aphobus wrote:
    Jan 4 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Is Born, 2009 [View article]
    Hey,

    Remember that the stock market pulls the economy out of recession. I agree with your argument. When I look at the macro climate, the emerging economies look like they bottomed as well. Brazil, Russia and China all appear to be on their way back up and are recovering from lows that are reasonable bottoms.


    On Jan 04 10:03 AM Against Aphobus wrote:

    > What about the fact that none of the economic fundamentals have improved!?!
    > The market will not just rise (sustainably) because some time has
    > passed and a few sketchy technical points have been crossed. Inflation
    > is the one "force of nature" effect that will push markets up (not
    > in VALUE but in PRICE). Other than that, I don't see much of a case
    > for a sustained bull market.
    >
    > Even admitting that inflation by itself is a bullish force on stock
    > prices, with earnings in the toilet and borrowing difficult, I'd
    > rather invest in commodities.
    Jan 4 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Is Born, 2009 [View article]
    I own GOOG
    Jan 4 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beat the Bull Market With Oil and Russia Plays [View article]
    I own RSX, DXO, CEDC, and NOV
    Jan 4 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Succeed in a Bear Market [View article]
    Actually, I'll go ahead and say that if Cramer says a dividend is safe, it probably is. He looks into companies and does his homework. What is a bad idea is using finance.yahoo.com's dividend yield to determine your dividend. The highest dividend yields tend to get cut because the stock has fallen for a reason and the dividend is unsupportable.
    Jan 3 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CME Group: Our Future Could Be in 'Futures' [View article]
    Paul,

    I liked NDAQ for the same reason. CME looks like it could be a lot better of an idea. Good call again.
    Dec 30 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2009: Expecting a Massive Rally [View article]
    I wish you would disclose what you own. Why wouldn't you? Are you afraid of telling us what you own?

    "I have added a Chinese telecom stock, one of the publicly traded U.S. exchanges, a consumer discretionary ETF and some short-term corporate debt (highly rated from the healthcare sector)."

    Sounds to me like CHL, FXI, XLY, and some GE short term corporate debt. Maybe MRK.

    Also, it's my belief that if you want to call for a bottom, using only technical analysis isn't the way to go, you have to talk about the current price level of the market and the expected future growth as well as consumer and investor sentiment.
    Dec 30 10:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Calculated Risks Possibly Worth Taking [View article]
    David,

    Aren't we always looking for good new opportunities? My other two floating ideas that aren't resting on deep company analysis are the reversal of oil and the bust of treasuries.

    When oil finally turns for good, and not some nifty shift like we had yesterday, I'll be buying DXO.

    Also, when people start realizing that they're getting negative real returns on US treasuries and that they are making bad investment decisions (this is bound to happen), I'll be going long TBT (which is double short US 20+ year treasuries).

    But, whatever you do --- don't get excited early on these trending ideas. You have people like Mark experiencing "the escalation of commitment"
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    seekingalpha.com/artic...


    On Dec 30 09:31 AM David White wrote:

    > Glen Bradford: Thanks for the advice. I am always looking for good
    > new opportunities.
    Dec 30 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying USO Is a No-Brainer [View article]
    I think you might be getting too excited and ahead of yourself, I agree with investor88. Ride the wave, don't try to catch the knife.
    Dec 30 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USO: Is a Probable Capitulation in the Works? [View article]
    Who knows man. I'm not going to be long USO when the turn happens, and I'm not going to get in early. Feel free to call capitulation points but you have to realize that the market is manic depressive. Especially when you have people who don't understand supply and demand or P/E ratios buying and selling stocks online.

    You said it yourself: Don't try and catch a falling knife. Wait for the shares to commence a trend change and begin buying as USO starts to rally.

    So, can we agree you bought in early, or can we agree to disagree?

    I'm going to be long DXO when this shift happens.
    Dec 30 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to Parity [View article]
    TBT is my play. I'm watching it closely. I don't own it yet, but once these treasuries turn. I'm all aboard. It's double short 20 year treasuries. When this whole thing unwinds, it'll be easy money.

    My second idea is for the oil rebound DXO: Still don't own it, but today I really started watching it closely.

    Glen Bradford
    Dec 29 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
471 Comments
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