Why I Love Dex One And SuperMedia And Why You Should Too [View article]
Guillermoleon, I always have a fun time reading your posts. I'm not sure if you are trolling or what not.
For any stock, nobody knows how high or low it will go. In the short term, the market is a popularity contest and right now I think that one thing you and I can agree on is that SPMD and DEXO are unpopular to say the least.
The limit on the upside that you might want to assign at any point in time is 10x FCF. I don't see these companies trading higher than that. Again, that's just a guess.
In regards to the print business and the rate of decline, it's interesting to see that revenue projections stabilize for the merged company around 2016. Than in itself warrants a reasonable multiple.
Anyway, good luck with figuring it out, I also am in the same boat of owning and buying Dex One and SuperMedia. I think that the pricing is incredibly irrational right now. I hope prices go lower across the next 3-6 months as I am still in the process of accumulating.
Why I Love Dex One And SuperMedia And Why You Should Too [View article]
I am just extremely comfortable investing when everyone else seems incredibly uncertain and the default forecast to me seems more pessimistic than what I think we will see and I think that over time the debt will trade back to par for the merged company.
There are other value opportunities out there right now, BBY, AIG, but the upside isn't as attractive.
Diversification is a tool to protect oneself from their own ignorance. Use at your own discretion. I know that in the past I have been completely incorrect in my broad assumptions. I agree, these are penny stocks. This situation should turn into very high dollar stocks. Perhaps $100+ is feasible inside of 3 years. That's what my calculations imply.
Anyway, I encourage you to question my assumptions and my logic. If you can find good reasoning that indicates that the assumptions that I am using are incorrect or my method of drawing conclusions is flawed, I'd be interested to hear.
Simply Put, Longwei Petroleum Worth $6 Or More Per Share [View article]
I think that you're overestimating the likelihood that their financial statements are an accurate representation of the underlying business.
I believe that I invested around $990,000 directly into LPH in the private placement several years ago.
1. New auditor? Nope. Sticking with the no name nobody. 2. Keeping a majority of the business in owners hands = problem. They own the business and are just permanently borrowing your money. 3. Crane and SBAY. Toups and LTUS. 4. My time isn't best spent explaining why I believe that you are wrong, but the main point of illustration is that you should take a look at the difference between facts and assumptions. What do you do when your assumptions are wrong or based on factually inaccurate information?
Dex Media: Likelihood Of Successful Merger Increases [View article]
I am still stuck between Yellow Media and Dex Media myself. I am hoping that you are right about the stock crashing after announcing a bankruptcy. I am also hoping that Yellow Media jumps while Dex Media dips so I can push about 25% of my Yellow position into Dex Media sometime in the next 60 days. Today is no bueno (Dexo and Spmd are up and YLO is stagnant). The reality of the situation is that I happily own both but it would be sweet if I was able to end up making a lucky trade.
Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA [View article]
Hey Drew,
Haven't done it yet 2 reasons i am holding onto my current situation: 1. I am waiting for YLO to announce a recap and think that that will be the time when I go bigger into DEXO. 2. Dex One and SuperMedia merger news and refinancing chapter 11 pre-filing announcement.
Right now I am 25.3% Dex Media (SPMD or DEXO) and 74.7% YLO at market prices.
If You've Won The Game, Stop Playing [View article]
This has nothing to do with trying to understand risk and everything to do with trying to spread out your money into piles of securities that you can't possibly understand beyond the "oh, they are recommended and diversified" concept.
I can assure you that paying a little and getting a lot is far more interesting than paying top dollar for growth securities.
Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA [View article]
I agree. I am also glad that the Dex Media merger is being slowed down so that I can ride both the Yellow Media wave and the Dex Media wave in succession.
Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA [View article]
Agree Ted,
The point is that the debt of Yellow Media is trading at crisis level pricing and the company is choosing to write debt off at the expense of equity holders as opposed to pay it down at a discount to par for the benefit of equity holders.
Overall you're right. There are a lot of moving pieces here. The issue isn't the cash flow, it's the management over at Yellow Media. They shouldn't be proactively restructuring.
They should be placing a call to get in on this merger and merge into Dex Media if you ask me. The issue isn't principle repayment, the issue is the timing of the principle repayment, aka the schedule. Since the CFO set it up with the assumption of refinancing, they effectively screwed the shareholders.
A lot can be said, none of it really matters. Earnings out November 6th and I'm waiting to see what happens in court. Should be exciting times over at Yellow Media. But the long run upside appears to belong to Dex Media. The only way that statement is false is if the court stops the recap and the yellow media lending syndicate extends their line of credit and they do open market debt repurchases.
Gone From Google - Wake Me When It Pulls Back Under $600 A Share [View article]
Hey Bret, I think you might be wrong on this. Take a look at Reggie Middleton's work. I think that Google is just don't a pretty crappy job of managing their balance sheet from an equity investor standpoint, but other than that, I think that pessimism is holding the price down and think that the intrinsic future growth is going to be greater than what is presently priced in.
Why I Love Dex One And SuperMedia And Why You Should Too [View article]
For any stock, nobody knows how high or low it will go. In the short term, the market is a popularity contest and right now I think that one thing you and I can agree on is that SPMD and DEXO are unpopular to say the least.
The limit on the upside that you might want to assign at any point in time is 10x FCF. I don't see these companies trading higher than that. Again, that's just a guess.
In regards to the print business and the rate of decline, it's interesting to see that revenue projections stabilize for the merged company around 2016. Than in itself warrants a reasonable multiple.
Anyway, good luck with figuring it out, I also am in the same boat of owning and buying Dex One and SuperMedia. I think that the pricing is incredibly irrational right now. I hope prices go lower across the next 3-6 months as I am still in the process of accumulating.
Why I Love Dex One And SuperMedia And Why You Should Too [View article]
There are other value opportunities out there right now, BBY, AIG, but the upside isn't as attractive.
Diversification is a tool to protect oneself from their own ignorance. Use at your own discretion. I know that in the past I have been completely incorrect in my broad assumptions. I agree, these are penny stocks. This situation should turn into very high dollar stocks. Perhaps $100+ is feasible inside of 3 years. That's what my calculations imply.
Anyway, I encourage you to question my assumptions and my logic. If you can find good reasoning that indicates that the assumptions that I am using are incorrect or my method of drawing conclusions is flawed, I'd be interested to hear.
Cheers :-)
Why I Love Dex One And SuperMedia And Why You Should Too [View article]
Perhaps you are right and the print decline accelerates.
Happy trading the earnings.
Simply Put, Longwei Petroleum Worth $6 Or More Per Share [View article]
I believe that I invested around $990,000 directly into LPH in the private placement several years ago.
1. New auditor? Nope. Sticking with the no name nobody.
2. Keeping a majority of the business in owners hands = problem. They own the business and are just permanently borrowing your money.
3. Crane and SBAY. Toups and LTUS.
4. My time isn't best spent explaining why I believe that you are wrong, but the main point of illustration is that you should take a look at the difference between facts and assumptions. What do you do when your assumptions are wrong or based on factually inaccurate information?
Dex Media: Likelihood Of Successful Merger Increases [View article]
Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA [View article]
Haven't done it yet 2 reasons i am holding onto my current situation:
1. I am waiting for YLO to announce a recap and think that that will be the time when I go bigger into DEXO.
2. Dex One and SuperMedia merger news and refinancing chapter 11 pre-filing announcement.
Right now I am 25.3% Dex Media (SPMD or DEXO) and 74.7% YLO at market prices.
Investors Don't Understand Apple's Math - A Mistake [View article]
you lost me at hello.
If You've Won The Game, Stop Playing [View article]
I can assure you that paying a little and getting a lot is far more interesting than paying top dollar for growth securities.
Dex Media: Likelihood Of Successful Merger Increases [View article]
Dex Media: Likelihood Of Successful Merger Increases [View article]
Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA [View article]
Why American Chapter 11 Beats Canadian CBCA [View article]
The point is that the debt of Yellow Media is trading at crisis level pricing and the company is choosing to write debt off at the expense of equity holders as opposed to pay it down at a discount to par for the benefit of equity holders.
Overall you're right. There are a lot of moving pieces here. The issue isn't the cash flow, it's the management over at Yellow Media. They shouldn't be proactively restructuring.
They should be placing a call to get in on this merger and merge into Dex Media if you ask me. The issue isn't principle repayment, the issue is the timing of the principle repayment, aka the schedule. Since the CFO set it up with the assumption of refinancing, they effectively screwed the shareholders.
A lot can be said, none of it really matters. Earnings out November 6th and I'm waiting to see what happens in court. Should be exciting times over at Yellow Media. But the long run upside appears to belong to Dex Media. The only way that statement is false is if the court stops the recap and the yellow media lending syndicate extends their line of credit and they do open market debt repurchases.
Gone From Google - Wake Me When It Pulls Back Under $600 A Share [View article]
That said, I love lower prices myself :-)
Buffett Agrees - Doing Nothing Is The Path To Investment Success [View article]
http://amzn.to/Rt6CDO
buy and read.
Checking 'Under The Hood' Of The Great Repeatable Dividend Machine [View article]
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.