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Glen Bradford  

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  • Waiting for the Inverse Treasury ETF's Glorious Day [View article]
    Andrew and PrudentMan,

    Thanks for the picture. I knew China was a big player here, but I honestly didn't know Japan was about to catch the shaft --- again.

    I agree with TBT. seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Did you forget to disclose ownership?

    Anyway, I'm big on Black Swan. Here's a handy list of definitions
    www.fooledbyrandomness...

    Further, check out this article that outlines the tipping point.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    On Apr 26 02:29 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

    > The next "Black Swan" will be a Treasury Auction and no one comes.
    >
    >
    > These comments are right on.
    Apr 26, 2009. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Are Likely Heading Lower: Resist the Temptation to Short Them [View article]
    You say: "The truth is, you could short the market here, and even if it goes up, you'll probably make a little money in the end -- after adjusting for inflation."

    Let's see how this works out. If you short stocks now and take the cash and sit on it as inflation rises and the stock market rises slower than inflation and then you buy your stocks back --- what happens?

    1. You have less dollars than you started with.
    2. Inflation eroded your dollar while you were missing a market rally.

    This is precisely why I don't plan on attending "investment seminars" at the gambling capital of the world.

    That said, I agree with TBT. We are about to see a reversal of the run to the security of US Treasuries/US Dollar.

    DXO is a weaksauce pick. If you were to look a little bit you'd find that there are oil producers out there trading at a P/E of 2 if oil is below $50 --- and they make their money in denominations other than the dollar. Just imagine how quickly they would appreciate when the dollar crashes and OIL surges.
    Apr 26, 2009. 10:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Holdings: I'm Now in the Bullish Camp [View article]
    I'm in this club as well. There are few of us. But, we are set to beat the street.
    Apr 25, 2009. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Intriguing Points About Qiao Xing Mobile [View article]
    Contradiction: "I've given Qiao Xing a C+ for growth potential. The Chinese mobile phone market is one of the most attractive in the world for several reasons."

    I think you should consider the relationship between QXM and XING. China is pushing 3G from 2.5G. The market here is huge. They are significantly more advanced than we are in the USA.

    Referring to Graham: You might also want to consider looking for companies selling on public exchanges for less than Cash-Total Liabilities.
    Apr 25, 2009. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The No-News Market Move [View article]
    My friends and I are always sending each other headlines that we feel are going to be renigged because they are written under false pretenses.

    Journalists are paid for consistently writing headlines that people read. They are not paid to be correct.

    I agree with you kind of/sort of. BAC increased its provisions for future losses. C isn't looking like it's fundies are as good as I was hoping they would be considering the fairly ideal circumstances of not having to report what's actually going on. There is bad news. The news reporting journalists just don't have the insight to read past the basic headlines that the companies are putting out. Citi reporting a profit and then putting down negative EPS is just part of the purposeful misinformation we are seeing across Financial Corporate America.
    Apr 20, 2009. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Markets in Process of Bottoming [View article]
    Get excited!

    You may be a little slow but you still can make a lot of money if you play your cards right.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Apr 16, 2009. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks [View article]
    I left out a couple things, I'll add them as I remember them. Another feeling of mine is that I've been looking through lots of insurance and bank financial statements closing out 2008. It seems to be a fairly large trend that they were writing off more than they had to. Looking at this from a game theory perspective, it makes sense. They may have wanted to close out a terrible year by writing off so much that they could avoid write-offs in 2009. Looking at things this way, and the adjustments of mark-to-market to mark-to-profit, I believe that these huge write-offs will slowly start factoring in over the next couple years as unrealized gains. I don't fully expect these institutions to bring them all back in 1 quarter. Analysts love good trends and when mark-to-market comes back, the companies are going to want to be able to continue posting profits. It's as if they all have a safety bank account now that they can start dipping into in order to normalize their future earnings. I have also been picking up HBAN. My disclaimer is that by diversifying across C, FITB, HBAN, AIG; you can land a couple big winners (400%+ in less than a year) and probably tank one. Overall, you'll outperform the market. That's why I fully recommend FAS.

    Hope this helps.


    On Apr 14 07:42 PM suttoda wrote:

    > very nice
    Apr 15, 2009. 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic [View instapost]
    That sounded bad. I think you've got something. I meant to illustrate how I miscategorized you along with the hoodlums of seekingalpha like David Fry.

    Glen
    Apr 14, 2009. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic [View instapost]
    Steven,

    Allow me to start by illustrating I hate chartists and I categorized you as one.

    I just checked your charts. When the VIX breaks down and the S&P is breaking up like it is. That's terribly bullish. I think that right now, the people pricing the VIX are taking into account all the good news that's going to be shoved down the market's throat thanks to financial porn (cnbc, forbes, ibj, etc.).

    Looks like the market broke down today and the VIX went down too.

    Hurray!

    my email is gbradfor at purdue.edu --- shoot me an email.
    Apr 14, 2009. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks [View article]
    I also agree with your interpretation on the VIX. I noticed it as well. When the market is crashing and the VIX is stable, as it was these past 2 months... I turned super bullish. I don't really have an opinion on the VIX right now. My opinion is that Financials are still severly underpriced based on the EPS that they're going to put out this year (2009). I also believe that even though banks are going to be cheating their way into earnings by mark-to-profit and no interest rates --- they are a steal right now. I am a bank-hater at heart.

    I think this week financials will run. The dumb money out there will see banks going up and buy in --- because they see an upward trend. The smart money has already bought in. There is 90% dumb money to smart money. Get ready to ride. These things are going to be blasting off. That's just my opinion.

    I didn't mention FITB. I like that one too because all the day traders I know cant stop yelling about it. My disclaimer is that buying FAS is the for sure winner. The rest are all hypothetically gambles. Citigroup can't go under and will probably go x3 this week. Just wait till the mutual funds can get it at $5.

    I base most of my analysis on discounted cash flows. In a situation like this, I look at historic cash flows and ask myself: "Will this company survive?"

    Hope this helps.


    On Apr 13 08:16 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

    > Check out my piece: VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic
    >
    > seekingalpha.com/insta...
    >
    >
    > There is panic buying after hours in Citigroup, now up to $4.20.
    > Also BAC.
    >
    > Here is an addendum to my piece:
    > Question from this posting on MarketOracle.com:
    >
    > VIX showing buying panic?
    >
    > Just wanted to ask about your interpretation of the VIX. When I saw
    > the VIX break down below 40, I took it as a sign that we'll see less
    > panic in general, on the long side and the short side. Options implied
    > volatility works both ways. Why did you see it as a set up for panic
    > buying?
    >
    > Reply:
    >
    > It's interesting that there are many divergent interpretations of
    > this indicator that has become widely monitored.
    >
    > First, clearly historical volatility has not diminished in this bull
    > phase...we all know that this is "the fastest rally since 1933."
    >
    >
    > The VIX tends to move inversely to the market. Technically the index
    > had reached a point that demanded resolution implying a sharp break
    > in either direction. A break down from the 200 DMA and the triangle
    > formation would imply a continuation of the bull trend in stocks...and
    > a sharp one. A move away from the 200 DMA is a fundamental change
    > of trend. It means something very important is happening. Bears had
    > been expecting an upside resolution to the VIX, coinciding with a
    > top in the "bear market rally". They have tried to short the market
    > again at this level on the blanket assumption that the bear must
    > return. The breakdown in the VIX in an indication (and a strong one)
    > that they are probably wrong. It is possible that on Tuesday or Wednesday
    > there may be a sharp pullback in the markets and the signal that
    > the VIX has given may prove to be a bull trap (or bear trap from
    > the perspective of the VIX chart). However that would need to happen
    > in the next few days or the shorts will start to cover and sideline
    > money will pile on driving the market to the 200 DMA on the SPX.
    >
    Apr 13, 2009. 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 Tuition Breaking Stocks [View article]
    blues,

    My estimates of CNO's EPS are now $0.85

    I'd be all sold out of this position at a P/E of 15. That's $12.75

    Further, in the current economic climate, I'd be all sold out at $8 --- taking advantage of other opportunities.

    I'm going to start selling around $6.

    Hope this helps,

    Glen


    On Apr 11 07:02 PM Just singing the blues wrote:

    > Glen,
    >
    > Great stuff, as usual --- thanks.
    >
    > Mffais show that Morgan Stanley bought 636,500 shares.
    >
    > With this type of news, do you think CNO will likely run closer to
    > $6.80 or $13.60?
    Apr 11, 2009. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 Tuition Breaking Stocks [View article]
    hoooon,

    funky does not mean seasonal. a seasonal company is still a normal company. good news! it gives those that understand how to deseasonalize company returns an edge. good news --- i am one of those people with an edge. Further good news, I'm going through a bunch of stocks this weekend and i'm looking through yours. Here's what i think in short.

    cnoa looks good --- just watch out for uncollectible recievables, in Q3 2008, pretty much all sales were in A/R. i'm watching this one and probably going to pick up some shares. i am not really worried about the a/r because they were mostly accumulated because well hey! Q3 is seasonal. this was a record breaking year. wooohoo! plus, the CEO said that Q4 is set to be another blockbuster as well. go figure. the stocks i mentioned in this article, unlike ors and cnoa, have good A/R and cash from operations. but CNOA looks great. ORS could easily be an issue. MCI in 1995 had a big issue that i think is possible at ORS essentially propagating escallations of committment throughout small backboneless subsidiaries. the issue is the CEO only bought 500K Shares when over the last year, insiders sold out 20,000K shares. see what i'm talking about?

    chrn --- doesnt have any revenues.. yuck. not interested in gambling. they just stopped getting revenues. Brilliant!

    check up on CYXN's outstanding shares and convertibles, my estimates were half of what they should have been, since i believe therea are twice as many shares outstanding

    dont like wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.

    Also, Granger: I don't like TECH. Too expensive.

    found this:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    meanwhile, I came across FEED, also looks like it should triple up to $7 at this point. just my opinion. but again, not as great a deal as cnoa.



    On Apr 08 03:12 PM hooooon wrote:

    > good article... glen, any insight on cnoa or chrn? both have numbers
    > in line with nwd, although chrn has funky (seasonal?) books. other
    > chinese lottery tickets i own and like: cyxn, ltus, ors (missed out
    > on $1 spike), ghii. in the usa: wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.
    >
    > also took glenns good advice on cno; that is my large cap, stable
    > company.
    Apr 11, 2009. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012? [View article]
    My little tidbit, is that screening ETFs using yahoo finance isn't a good idea.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Glen
    Apr 6, 2009. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Phoenix Stock Update [View article]
    Forgot to mention, I have checked and verified CNO.

    So far I'm up over 300% in a couple weeks.

    I'm still buying, in fact I bought today.

    Glen
    Apr 6, 2009. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Phoenix Stock Update [View article]
    Your strategy looks very familiar to that of the later years Graham. Check 2 1 2, Greenblatt.

    Mohnish is making a killing applying this strategy.

    www.gurufocus.com/news...

    I like your style. Consider yourself followed.
    Apr 6, 2009. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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