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Glen Bradford

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  • The Credit Spreads Blow-Up [View article]
    First time i've seen that chart. It explains a lot. Maybe you should chart it against the S&P 500.
    Dec 1 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEDC: Profiting from a Market That Can Lead You to Drink [View article]
    oh yeah, what's b/v.. is that book value?

    i kind of was alarmed that it decreased? that's weird to me... but with the acquisitions it is possible.

    i saw the whole russian fiasco coming with the whole oil collapse and i sold out of cedc around $60, figuring people would be stupid enough to sell it down to prices like $30, but seeing it this cheap is awesome :-)
    Nov 30 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEDC: Profiting from a Market That Can Lead You to Drink [View article]
    Hey Paul, just looked through your stuff --- ndaq, cedc, and air look good. i'm going to go through a few of your plays though, but last time i checked, stryker is too expensive. a few you might want to look into:

    beav, bucy, aob, ej, hurc, mtw

    and ... for the record.. i don't think you should suggest call/put spreads.. but what do i know, i sold all my cedc and bought 2010 calls @30 like a baboon.
    Nov 30 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
    It's unfortunate that a lot of the comments on this article just state random opinions and facts and don't back them up with any evidence. I figure it's the least I can do.

    BAC - First off, ignore the last 4 quarters (1 year) of figures. It's not really historically accurate. Ignoring the last year and looking at the 4 previous --- you have a company growing at at least 10% and last time I watched TV, it's making strategic acquisitions to spur growth in the next 5 years. It's priced to shrink earnings. This is not the case. Out of all banks, this is the only one that I've considered owning lately (Besides citigroup since it got saved).

    C - Citigroup has been growing at at least 7% over the past 5 years under similar analysis and is priced to shrink faster than BAC.

    That said, I've been staying away from banks for the last year since I saw and heard about this one coming... I think there are better deals out there, but the banks as you've seen are the first to rebound the hardest. Hopefully you were smart enough to buy C earlier this week (monday morning)

    HERO - Priced to grow at 1.8%, it's been growing revenues significantly faster (80%) than that but the relationship between revenue growth and net income(-24%) has not been as strong lately... I like NOV and APA more.

    DRYS - this one should recover from the fact that commidity prices are "bottoming" esp. if you are calling a market bottom. It's grown Net income at 82%. Can they keep this up? Well --- anyone who knows anything about the transpo business knows that there's no profitable way to transport people, but transporting goods is the way to go. My favorite transpo business distributes liquor (CEDC)

    As for the bottom, you're 5 days late and everyone's screaming "bottom."
    This could have been the bottom, look to global markets... there are strong indicators that it's the bottom. I think it's the bottom. But, I'm holding out a little bit, i've leveraged up 3 times at 9000, 8500, and 8000. I'm saving one more time to leverage up at 7000 in case the market is as unpredictable as I think it is. But I'm all in. I think that the DOW is worth about 10500, but would be surprised to see it reach that. If it does, it will overshoot to 11000+.

    Hope this helps you guys!
    Nov 29 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Odds & Ends: Google, Mosaic, Central European Distribution and the VIX [View article]
    Tell David to stop commenting these.. gosh. I didn't read the article, just read the headlines and the stocks you commented. Good work. I don't know about MOS. I saw the oil bubble bursting and I got out of all agriculture/oil --- but now I'm back.
    Nov 27 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risk Premium Puzzle, or Dividend Investing for Math Nerds [View article]
    it's unfortunate that you're not able to apply this model to individual stocks. you should consider looking at stocks this way. forecast the last 5 and 10 year trends of revenue and earnings growth forward 5 years and take the present value using discounted cash flows.

    good article though --- i think most people don't understand this type of analysis --- even though it's the only type of analysis that matters. again, divs=eps, but divs really do price in a bottom. eps is shaky.
    Nov 26 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coke or Pepsi? [View article]
    I disagree.

    My mentor does too. (this article is a bit aged)

    Glen Bradford
    Nov 26 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Ignoring Big Stock Market Moves [View article]
    Well, when you're 50% down, being 6% up 2 days in a row still leaves you feeling like you got sucker-punched.
    Nov 25 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Volatile Market Ever [View article]
    Well, here's on article that says you should take this risk premium and run:

    I think you should just buy.
    Nov 25 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting from Risk Aversion [View article]
    You're right from a quant standpoint. The numbers don't lie. What this implies is that over your 1 year horizons, is that investors pricing options expect that the stocks have more upside than downside right now. This strategy is the best I've seen for locking in around 20% gains in the next year. I would like to point out some notes: A P&G marketing representative came to my class today and confirmed that when we were in recessionary periods, their brand lost value to the store brands (walmart/meijers/kmart... And... in fact, they never got their market share back once the consumer switched. Believe it or not... Kimberly-Clark had a representative too today. They both claimed that their paper towels were better ---- bounty vs. viva. Viva is better, but bounty has the 40 year brand name and market share. but, they'll both lose to walmart's in-house regular brand knocked off by 50% in price.

    the point is this --- in today's world, the black-shoels model of option pricing isn't the best. there are quants out there doing regression analysis. for example, i have run neural network quarterly fundamental stock market analysis to predict stock price in recessionary and non-recessionary environments... according to your numbers and the 20% gains you're locking in, you're a god. I think that there's more upside than 20% by owning the stock. I'd be the one taking your bet and buying your call. Maybe I'm the idiot.

    oh well, it's definately weird that 2 stocks you covered had representatives come and talk recessionary marketing to me today. GE and gnip(a startup---huge potential!) came too. best of luck.
    Nov 25 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My All-or-Nothing Strategy [View article]

    I'm not selling calls in the future. I'm buying them. For me, there are two viable ways to leverage up. The first is to use margin, which is less expensive than calls with the VIX at all time highs, but I just can't risk trading on margin because the risk is less limited than when I buy calls. Buying a call --- which is what I mentioned --- allows me to buy shares of a company at a later date at a specified price. I pay for this privilege. The downside risk of buying calls is losing 100%. I can't lose more than I put in. If I sell stock and buy long calls that expire a year or two from now, it's the "safest" way to leverage up.

    On Nov 17 11:38 PM User 300271 wrote:

    > I have not had a chance to go out to 2010 to see what you did, but
    > I wish you hadn't sold you long for a position sometime in the future.
    > I understand you are in college. Try keeping those positions in your
    > portfolio and keep adding to them as you can and with this VIX when
    > your underlying stock (whaterver it is) KCL goes up to 26 or 27 think
    > of selling a covered Call whether in the monery around 25 or higher
    > to say 30. If the stock drops or does not go over the strike price
    > you just picked up a nice "dividend" so to speek for that month.
    > Use that money for your monthly expenses. Say KCL goes down to 21
    > like today. Go ahead and sell a 20 Put if it doesent go below 20
    > in the month you picked up another "dividend" so to speek. There
    > is no reason you should not own both positions in a month(a straddle)
    > especially in this VIX enviornment. What is the worst that can happen.
    > Someone could call you shares if you do not move the call options
    > out at par or better before they expire and you just made what you
    > sold the calls for + the strike price of the shares. Or someone may
    > put the shares on you - again if you do not move the options out
    > a month or 2 at par or better before they expire. In that case your
    > on Margin, but you are selling calls and puts each month so you should
    > be able to pay down that margin, still own the stock and have a little
    > money left over for your college expenses. At best your stock trades
    > between the straddle and you pull down a grand or two a month and
    > cover those college expenses and you keep your positions in a time
    > when YOU SHOULD NOT BE SELLING. Don't lose you nerve - A Dad.
    Nov 24 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations Today: More Pessimistic than During the Great Depression [View article]
    I liked this article. There's a lot of people that just run market commentary. A select few actually do their homework and back it up. I have been looking for this kind of analysis for a while. Finally found it. I would like to point out that if you're looking only for 12.5% return now --- you're still probably looking at the wrong approach. There's a lot of companies out there growing at 30% annually and priced to shrink. The trick is figuring out which ones are going to continue to grow and filter out the ones that are cyclically busting.
    Nov 24 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Greatest Idea Yet [View article]
    you've been writing aapl for a long time and it looks like you're doing what i'm doing. selling the stock and buying the calls.

    you should diversify into other ideas too. stock prices dont always reflect the companies intrinsic value. my uncle put all his eggs into AGU, and i told him there were cheaper companies out there... sure enough. plop and drop.

    right now, apple is a buy. 2 reasons:

    it's a growth stock trading like it's not going to grow anymore.

    when you plant an apple in the ground, it grows a tree. johnny appleseed is back. and someone just burned down his apple orchard. he's planting.
    Nov 19 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The China Decoupling Debate Continues in Some Circles [View article]
    I'm trying to figure this one out.
    Nov 19 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Investment Candidates from the Forbes 'Best Small Companies' List [View article]
    Let me know when you go through and knock others out of your list.
    Nov 17 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment