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Glen Bradford

 
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  • Why We're Boosting Payments To High-Value Contributors [View article]
    One thing you might want to consider is a tracking system that allows SA to track the performance of the stocks mentioned in the articles... and then distribute some sort of performance payment that way. That would be nice... and then you could track highest paid authors per article.
    Jun 2 02:33 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Calls a Bottom [View article]
    Barron's is probably a little bit early on this one. But, who knows for sure. Stocks are cheap. Your average investor doesn't know how to price companies, so who cares? Welcome to short term game theory.
    Mar 8 07:10 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: The Best Stock in the World [View article]
    Markets are efficient? Is that your hypothesis?

    So we have a null hypothesis H0

    H0 = Markets are efficient

    H1 = Markets are not efficient

    Can we agree that making above average returns on less risk would support the rejection of H0?

    glenbradford.com/files...

    Do you know who came up with the efficient market hypothesis?

    The efficient-market hypothesis was developed by Professor Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business as an academic concept of study through his published Ph.D. thesis in the early 1960s at the same school. It was widely accepted up until the 1990s, when behavioral finance economists, who had been a fringe element, became mainstream.[6] Empirical analyses have consistently found problems with the efficient-market hypothesis, the most consistent being that stocks with low price to earnings (and similarly, low price to cash-flow or book value) outperform other stocks.

    ----

    Look, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe you're wrong. One thing is certain, we can't both be correct. It is or it is not. Is that it? It is.
    Dec 17 02:43 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CCME Fraud Claims Don't Hold Up [View article]
    Marty - take a look at this if you haven't already.

    Not only what you said, but there's practically no incentive for them to run a huge fraud:

    investorshub.advfn.com...
    Feb 9 06:27 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Holding My Silver Shorts [View article]
    I can't wait for the buy the dip crowd to start panic selling themselves.
    May 5 05:29 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CCME Fraud Claims Don't Hold Up [View article]
    Marty,

    I spent hours and hours trying to prove that CCME was a fraud and was unable to do so.

    Glen
    Feb 9 05:58 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials Are Masking the Market's Potential [View article]
    The P/E is simply a indicator of the future growth potential of the stock market. How does a earnings of $40 get a price of $776? That's a P/E of 19.6. That would indicate expected future growth over the next 20 years of about 5% from 2008. That's fairly optimistic. I can see why you're confused. That's why this article is great! It indicates that a lot of the losses are nitch losses, if you will.

    Under those estimates, we are pulling a P/E of about 10. That would yield little to no growth over the next 20 years. Factor in the probability that financial institutions are likely to be profitable again in the next couple years and the P/E shrinks further.

    Personally, I think the estimate of 1050 might be a little too bullish for the time being, but it's definately not out of question.

    Now that you have your fair value estimate for the S&P 500, try and compute fair values for the other large countries out there, and you begin to see the big picture, that eastern europe, russia, and other economies have been pummeled. When it comes to buying discounted cash flows, the less I can pay for future earnings the more willing I am to buy those instead of others.

    I'm just saying that, great. USA is cheap. But, based on my assumptions that US treasuries are a bubble, and that eventually, global uncertainty settling will probably take a bite out of the dollar and commodities will reinflate back to normalized levels... I'm just saying keep your head up. Good analysis.

    Can we get someone to analyze the bailout again? I want to see all the numbers added up.

    Glen

    On Mar 20 12:37 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

    > Siegel pimps his book and the funds he is pushing and, like most
    > "economists" doesn't know what he is talking about. Anyone who believes
    > the economy, and that lagging indicator - the stock market - is returning
    > to future heights in less than five years is drowning in wishful
    > thinking. We are a debtor nation with most of our GDP going to debt
    > service.
    >
    > How a $40.00 S & P earnings estimates gets more than a 10 P/E
    > in this economic/political environment is beyond me and my investable
    > funds. If you want history, and I don't because of the dynamics
    > of today, you can use the 7 P/E of the Seventies. As long as we
    > are guessing, why not? Kind of changes the story doesn't it for
    > today's dilettantes?
    >
    > The foregoing article is based on the wishful thinking of a left/liberal
    > economists. Hardly the guru a thoughtful Free Market investor would
    > believe and put his hard earned money on. Remember DOW 30,000 and
    > the geniuses who outrageously predicted on the losers media, CNBC,
    > that one should easily get 30% a year on their 401k as far as on
    > could see. That was 1999-early 2000. What was Mr. Market discounting
    > then?
    >
    > Like social tennis, the stock market is a loser's game.
    Mar 20 01:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Holding My Silver Shorts [View article]
    You better believe it. I'm ready to exit at any sign of strength.
    May 5 03:40 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways to Dodge the Damage [View article]
    OK, I agree with the bond market collapse.

    With higher interest rates, do you see home prices higher or lower?

    I'd guess lower.

    Do you think that this makes for a stronger or weaker dollar?
    Apr 21 08:48 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: 28 Days Later [View article]
    P/E of 4 for a high growth company --- I think that there should be more articles on opportunities like this instead of non to low growth companies trading at P/E's of 20.

    But then again, I like reading about opportunities with lots of upside.
    Feb 14 03:21 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    After reading this, I am confident that you have no idea what you are talking about.

    I like the enthusiasm, however.

    The gap in your understanding is one where you do not understand how companies are capitalized or what makes them go into bankruptcies that wipe out equity holders. Yellow Media is cheaper than Dex Media. http://bit.ly/14peDxp

    Also, the digital business of Yellow Media is a larger percentage of revenue than it is for Dex.

    You may be right, but you must realize that the stock of Dex Media trades like a call option on the future of the company. Will the creditors force it under? Will they be able to stabilize EBITDA?

    I think at the end of the day Dex Media will likely make it through and these are great prices to get involved but I am not certain.

    I do believe that $150 is certainly possible.

    I encourage you to look harder. I recommend buying a subscription to researchdistressed.com and having a conversation with Stan if you have a substantial amount of money at work here, $1M++.
    Nov 21 03:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dead Cat Bounce in Silver [View article]
    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

    dollar showing the most strength that i've ever seen.. so throw that hypothesis out the window, rejected for now. wait for the fed to announce QE3 ... and then you'll look like a genius. i think QE3 could be on the way, so you might be just a tad early..

    who knows?
    May 7 03:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Holding My Silver Shorts [View article]
    Hope this helps. I got lucky. I have no idea what I'm doing to be honest.

    Surfing Silver and Gold for Fun and Profits
    on Apr 21, 2011 • SLV, AGQ, SIVR • 15 Comments

    Why I Sold Silver
    on May 3, 2011 • AGQ, SLV, ZSL • 33 Comments

    Testing a Short on Silver, Eyeing China Weakness
    on May 4, 2011 • SLV, ZSL, AGQ • 13 Comments

    Silver: Why I'm Still Short
    on May 5, 2011 • SLV, AGQ, ZSL • 47 Comments
    May 5 07:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons to Expect More QE and Higher Prices for Gold and Silver [View article]
    Doug, You might also consider the argument that the "too big to fail" banks effectively have put options on the US Government forcing the government to print money.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Apr 21 05:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: 28 Days Later [View article]
    Switow magazine and high-speed rail are in the cards too. Lots of opportunities out there --- and it's fairly easy to capitalize on them since the ads pay for the costs of production for switow.

    Tour buses, lots of stuff. There are a lot of things they can do that just expand on what they do already.
    Feb 14 12:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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