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Glen Bradford

 
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  • Why I'm Holding My Silver Shorts [View article]
    haha, people get emotionally involved because it's their bank account.

    2 years on silver? i don't know, george soros is breaking the back of gold.. oil is breaking, dollar rallying.

    seems pretty good grounds for more silver fall-offs in the future.

    i just dont like how fast it is breaking down.
    May 5 06:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Holding My Silver Shorts [View article]
    I am quick to change my mind. I was long the bubble only recently.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    May 5 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CCME: Cash Is Real, Company Is Real [View article]
    LOL,

    I just had to respond to this one:

    www.glenbradford.com/f...
    www.glenbradford.com/f...
    www.glenbradford.com/f...
    Feb 17 06:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China Media Express a Top Tier Company? You Decide [View article]
    Quick question: What's your take on the price target estimates that value this company below $50, $100, even $150?

    Have you looked into the cognitive bias called the anchoring effect?

    Just curious if you think that is in play, just as I do. Analysts do a good job of predicting current stock price --- I would say that 80% of their price prediction is the current price and 20% of their price prediction is what they think it's actually worth.

    80%($20)+20%($160) = $32 ~ Their price target.
    Jan 18 08:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons to Be Invested in Stocks Right Now [View article]
    The goal of buying stocks shouldn't be to pay fair value for the underlying company. That's my 2 cents.

    But I might be the in the small group interested in buying low and selling high. What do we know?
    Jul 16 05:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Are Likely Heading Lower: Resist the Temptation to Short Them [View article]
    You say: "The truth is, you could short the market here, and even if it goes up, you'll probably make a little money in the end -- after adjusting for inflation."

    Let's see how this works out. If you short stocks now and take the cash and sit on it as inflation rises and the stock market rises slower than inflation and then you buy your stocks back --- what happens?

    1. You have less dollars than you started with.
    2. Inflation eroded your dollar while you were missing a market rally.

    This is precisely why I don't plan on attending "investment seminars" at the gambling capital of the world.

    That said, I agree with TBT. We are about to see a reversal of the run to the security of US Treasuries/US Dollar.

    DXO is a weaksauce pick. If you were to look a little bit you'd find that there are oil producers out there trading at a P/E of 2 if oil is below $50 --- and they make their money in denominations other than the dollar. Just imagine how quickly they would appreciate when the dollar crashes and OIL surges.
    Apr 26 10:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second-Guessing Buffett's November Bottom Call [View article]
    I'm going to congratulate you on coming up with an article that more people than usual read and left comments on. Unfortunately, your scope is a bit off and the comments are better than the original article itself. I would advise writing another article rephrasing the comments that this article received.

    There is definable downside in the market. The market tends to go lower than it is presently, especially when faced with a recession of this magnitude. We could go down around 66% by my calculations to get to depression 1929 levels. That said, the government reactions then were "weak sauce." I think that seeing a decline down to Dow 7000 isn't out of question. That's the short term.

    The long term actuality is that Buffett buys above average companies at bargain prices. So, when he's able to find these, he buys. He isn't buying the struggling companies.

    Look to China. seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Tell me that hasn't bottomed.
    Dec 23 04:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bucyrus: Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    Paul,

    Thanks for the write back. As it stands, I don't own the BUCY calls. They're too expensive for my taste. Sorry about coming off so negative --- but I've learned that to get the initial hook you sometimes have to come off strong.

    Did you read that article I listed?

    I think your strategy is really good actually. Capitalizing on the expected volatility. This is huge returns that are pretty much in the bag. And honestly one of the best article I've read as far as a good idea in ... say... 10 months.
    Dec 17 06:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bucyrus: Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    Paul, you're stock choice here in BUCY is great. Why are you capping your gains and minimizing your downside? Look, I'm going to be honest, I read your articles and also have you in my favorites. I would like for you to shoot me an email or contact me so we could discuss the stocks your interested in and have you look through mine.

    My only complaint with your strategy is that you find great companies at a great price and limit your upside. Meanwhile... you should be advocating things like: Only buying calls, Only buying the stock, Buying the stock and the calls, or buying the stock on margin.

    When you find great companies at huge price discounts, like BUCY trading down 50% YOY and it's backlog increasing and PE of 7 and it should be 20 because of Global Demand for their stuff.

    Come On! Break out the Bull talk.

    I'll tell you what, BUCY is one of my favorite stocks at these prices. I guarantee 1 year from now, buying this stock right now at $21.84 will outperform your strategy.

    Here's an article that is worth your time.

    www.gurufocus.com/news...

    You can find my contact information on my website.
    Dec 17 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
    It's unfortunate that a lot of the comments on this article just state random opinions and facts and don't back them up with any evidence. I figure it's the least I can do.

    BAC - First off, ignore the last 4 quarters (1 year) of figures. It's not really historically accurate. Ignoring the last year and looking at the 4 previous --- you have a company growing at at least 10% and last time I watched TV, it's making strategic acquisitions to spur growth in the next 5 years. It's priced to shrink earnings. This is not the case. Out of all banks, this is the only one that I've considered owning lately (Besides citigroup since it got saved).

    C - Citigroup has been growing at at least 7% over the past 5 years under similar analysis and is priced to shrink faster than BAC.

    That said, I've been staying away from banks for the last year since I saw and heard about this one coming... I think there are better deals out there, but the banks as you've seen are the first to rebound the hardest. Hopefully you were smart enough to buy C earlier this week (monday morning)

    HERO - Priced to grow at 1.8%, it's been growing revenues significantly faster (80%) than that but the relationship between revenue growth and net income(-24%) has not been as strong lately... I like NOV and APA more.

    DRYS - this one should recover from the fact that commidity prices are "bottoming" esp. if you are calling a market bottom. It's grown Net income at 82%. Can they keep this up? Well --- anyone who knows anything about the transpo business knows that there's no profitable way to transport people, but transporting goods is the way to go. My favorite transpo business distributes liquor (CEDC)

    As for the bottom, you're 5 days late and everyone's screaming "bottom."
    This could have been the bottom, look to global markets... there are strong indicators that it's the bottom. I think it's the bottom. But, I'm holding out a little bit, i've leveraged up 3 times at 9000, 8500, and 8000. I'm saving one more time to leverage up at 7000 in case the market is as unpredictable as I think it is. But I'm all in. I think that the DOW is worth about 10500, but would be surprised to see it reach that. If it does, it will overshoot to 11000+.

    Hope this helps you guys!
    Nov 29 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Independence Day For Fannie And Freddie [View article]
    Your views are very absolutist in nature. I look at things a little more holistically. What is the best structure?

    http://bloom.bg/1l9DGy1

    “I think government has to play a part in housing,” Buffett said. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is very good for the American public and I think that you will need government participation in some way to bring the costs down.”
    Jul 6 04:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Independence Day For Fannie And Freddie [View article]
    As you seem to agree, the pieces are in play. At this point that is all that matters. The present course of events is one that leads to large gains for the equity holders of the two businesses. I like Mel Watt, only because he appears to be doing the right thing by focusing on his scope and playing his role perfectly.
    Jul 6 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Are Undercapitalized [View article]
    Rollo Tomasi, I am trying to understand what you are trying to say but I can't put it together. Can you help me better understand your perspective?
    May 18 11:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Are Undercapitalized [View article]
    I could find other companies to own a part of, just thought I'd share that.
    May 18 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media: Time Is Running Out For The Yellow Submarine [View article]
    I also thought about writing an article in opposition to the last one but decided not to. http://seekingalpha.co...

    Instead I just sidelined with the obvious. http://seekingalpha.co...

    While that author is purposefully ignorant of the capital structure I think that you are perhaps overly pessimistic about the realities.

    Thought 1: Look at Yellow Media in Canada and you will see bankruptcy situations where the equity holders do get something. So there is more gray area than you are willing to admit. Overall, however, I agree with your simplification and you've been reading research distressed's Stan Manoukian. Good job.

    Thought 2: Dex has been selling year-end loaded digital products.

    Thought 3: Adjusted EBITDA is more relevant than EBITDA in the case of Dex Media.

    Thought 4: Market prices for things are often wrong. If Dex Media can repurchase sub-par for the time being and stabilize the business in the next few years and debt prices return to par, a refinancing would result in the equity being worth much more.

    Thought 5: The entire industry is in distress trading at retarded valuations. When Yellow Media trades at a higher EV/EBITDA valuation, higher than the Debt/EBITDA of DXM, I would expect stability to return to the various prices of DXM Debt. YPG will lead the way from here.

    Thought 6: We have a lot of time on our hands. 2016 is a long ways off yet and basically the story here is execution. Can they stabilize things? Well, the risk/reward here is pretty good. If they can stabilize per their debt slides then this stock is worth $150+ in a few years. If things all just go to crap, then you're right that the stock is probably worth $0.

    Thought 7: Your put option /// long YLWDF/YLWWF strategy is probably suboptimal to just being long Yellow Media.

    Thought 8: I think you did an excellent job of blowing apart the poorly written article a few days ago. That said, I think that overall this article is more negative than it should be given the way things are going. I think that taking both articles into account, a reader can make a good judgment call, but on a standalone basis, both articles aren't really complete, but that is my perception.

    Thought 9: I want to know what else you own or are looking at. Keep me posted! globalspeculation at gmail.com
    Nov 27 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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