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Glen Bradford

 
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  • Youku.com: Best Short of 2010-2011? [View article]
    All I am saying is that in the long run, buying this and expecting to make money is foolish. I don't care what traders are willing to pay for it in the short term. Investors discounting future cash flows are clearly not very involved in this one.
    Dec 12 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Reverse Merger Stocks: Closing the Gap With IPOs [View article]
    Tony - Welcome to SA, let me know if I can be of any assistance. Zack Buckley is in China right now; he visits CHBT September 20th-24th. If you come up with questions --- I'd be glad to send them his way on your behalf.
    Aug 16 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shape of Market Bubbles [View article]
    Doug Short is someone worth keeping tabs on. His information isn't company specific but is always interesting!
    Jun 9 01:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Medicine: Expect a Big Quarter [View article]
    Brilliant. $CHME This is more intelligent than anything else that was posted today across seekingalpha. Most people find it difficult to measure intelligence, so I'm here to lend a helping hand.
    Aug 11 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shooting for 100% Return in One Month [View article]
    Wildhawk: I don't think using beta or standard deviation is a good measure for risk.
    100% is a good metric because I don't think most "professionals" will be able to get it. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing --- not from the volatility of a company’s price. It's just that in the land of academia, you can prove risk as it relates to volatility. Look into the assumptions and look to Eugene Fama. Even look to Wikipedia. There are many studies that suggest this methodology runs on incorrect assumptions.
    Fred Voetsch: Thanks. I do my best research from listening to others. You’re right. I got crushed. That’s why I’m beating the market by 20% as it stands right now since June 2008. On a side note, I was down 75% at the worst of it because I wasn’t selling into a bear market. Those stocks you mentioned, VSEC, SIGM, HURC, and MIDD are going to outperform the market in to the next 2 years. Jim Cramer paid his dues in the '80s as a Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) broker, followed by 14 years at Cramer Berkowitz, his $450 million hedge fund, where he earned an average return of 24% a year after fees. And, I shouldn’t listen to him? I only listen to people that beat the market. Yes, now you’re right about the macro economy, I got toasted this last fall cause I ignored it partly because I was in 25 Credit hours of MBA/Industrial Engineering Coursework. I agree with your last 2 points. I realize that I come off as cocky in this article. The purpose was to illustrate that there are companies that are doing fine now and that they are cheap from a historical standpoint. The direction is up. Thanks for the pointers.
    Kyller: Good luck, I was at their shareholder meeting this Tuesday I believe. Saw the new board member. He looked like he knew what he was doing.
    Alphameister: You hit the nail on the head. I agree with your analysis of your and my maneuverability that the big money people don’t have.
    PROXIMO: Nope, they sure wouldn’t. Buffett only pulled 60% a year back when he was managing less money. 100% a month sure catches the eye though, doesn’t it?
    Ames Tiedeman: Running up 700% should be taken into the perspective of the fall off a cliff over the last 2 years.
    Jayinasia: Good strategy, see you at $60,000. In 1 year you’ll probably be $100K
    Ifuwish2: Wait for the Citi dilution and then I think it will rise.
    Stonedinvestor: It’s Cramer.
    Alan von Altendorf: Glad you’re following someone, cause it’ll keep you in the game.
    Alan Young: Yes, I did that last June. I was up 30% in a month and then proceeded to get crushed.
    Hot Richard: I don’t like those odds. If you know how to count cards though, I’ll bet in your favor.
    Dean: No thanks.
    Guymar: I buy companies that nobody likes that in my opinion are going to be liked more as time progresses into the future.
    FloridaBoy2: Luck has a bit to do with it --- but not all of it.
    Users: That would be up, glad the shorting is back.
    Living4Dividends: Ponzi didn’t keep true to his word, hence the scheme addendum.
    Hope this helps, Glad I could stir up some comments on some great investment opportunities.
    May 14 05:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review of 'The Fast Track to Becoming a Millionaire' by Michael Masterson [View article]
    I will be covered thoroughly in the next book. If you're interested in how to actually become a millionaire --- just start doing the most obvious things in the world that make money. Follow the strategies of legendary investors. 1. Make only the best interest rates work for you. 2. Do your best to eliminate the risk of loss. 3. Find other people like you. 4. Get the support of big money. 5. Enjoy the ride.

    In order to make it big --- you have to do something different. Just figured I'd point that one out... Best wishes in getting yourself to millionaire status. I hope to be a certified member of the LAMB Club sometime in the future.
    May 2 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The No-News Market Move [View article]
    My friends and I are always sending each other headlines that we feel are going to be renigged because they are written under false pretenses.

    Journalists are paid for consistently writing headlines that people read. They are not paid to be correct.

    I agree with you kind of/sort of. BAC increased its provisions for future losses. C isn't looking like it's fundies are as good as I was hoping they would be considering the fairly ideal circumstances of not having to report what's actually going on. There is bad news. The news reporting journalists just don't have the insight to read past the basic headlines that the companies are putting out. Citi reporting a profit and then putting down negative EPS is just part of the purposeful misinformation we are seeing across Financial Corporate America.
    Apr 20 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks [View article]
    I left out a couple things, I'll add them as I remember them. Another feeling of mine is that I've been looking through lots of insurance and bank financial statements closing out 2008. It seems to be a fairly large trend that they were writing off more than they had to. Looking at this from a game theory perspective, it makes sense. They may have wanted to close out a terrible year by writing off so much that they could avoid write-offs in 2009. Looking at things this way, and the adjustments of mark-to-market to mark-to-profit, I believe that these huge write-offs will slowly start factoring in over the next couple years as unrealized gains. I don't fully expect these institutions to bring them all back in 1 quarter. Analysts love good trends and when mark-to-market comes back, the companies are going to want to be able to continue posting profits. It's as if they all have a safety bank account now that they can start dipping into in order to normalize their future earnings. I have also been picking up HBAN. My disclaimer is that by diversifying across C, FITB, HBAN, AIG; you can land a couple big winners (400%+ in less than a year) and probably tank one. Overall, you'll outperform the market. That's why I fully recommend FAS.

    Hope this helps.


    On Apr 14 07:42 PM suttoda wrote:

    > very nice
    Apr 15 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks [View article]
    I also agree with your interpretation on the VIX. I noticed it as well. When the market is crashing and the VIX is stable, as it was these past 2 months... I turned super bullish. I don't really have an opinion on the VIX right now. My opinion is that Financials are still severly underpriced based on the EPS that they're going to put out this year (2009). I also believe that even though banks are going to be cheating their way into earnings by mark-to-profit and no interest rates --- they are a steal right now. I am a bank-hater at heart.

    I think this week financials will run. The dumb money out there will see banks going up and buy in --- because they see an upward trend. The smart money has already bought in. There is 90% dumb money to smart money. Get ready to ride. These things are going to be blasting off. That's just my opinion.

    I didn't mention FITB. I like that one too because all the day traders I know cant stop yelling about it. My disclaimer is that buying FAS is the for sure winner. The rest are all hypothetically gambles. Citigroup can't go under and will probably go x3 this week. Just wait till the mutual funds can get it at $5.

    I base most of my analysis on discounted cash flows. In a situation like this, I look at historic cash flows and ask myself: "Will this company survive?"

    Hope this helps.


    On Apr 13 08:16 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

    > Check out my piece: VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic
    >
    > seekingalpha.com/insta...
    >
    >
    > There is panic buying after hours in Citigroup, now up to $4.20.
    > Also BAC.
    >
    > Here is an addendum to my piece:
    > Question from this posting on MarketOracle.com:
    >
    > VIX showing buying panic?
    >
    > Just wanted to ask about your interpretation of the VIX. When I saw
    > the VIX break down below 40, I took it as a sign that we'll see less
    > panic in general, on the long side and the short side. Options implied
    > volatility works both ways. Why did you see it as a set up for panic
    > buying?
    >
    > Reply:
    >
    > It's interesting that there are many divergent interpretations of
    > this indicator that has become widely monitored.
    >
    > First, clearly historical volatility has not diminished in this bull
    > phase...we all know that this is "the fastest rally since 1933."
    >
    >
    > The VIX tends to move inversely to the market. Technically the index
    > had reached a point that demanded resolution implying a sharp break
    > in either direction. A break down from the 200 DMA and the triangle
    > formation would imply a continuation of the bull trend in stocks...and
    > a sharp one. A move away from the 200 DMA is a fundamental change
    > of trend. It means something very important is happening. Bears had
    > been expecting an upside resolution to the VIX, coinciding with a
    > top in the "bear market rally". They have tried to short the market
    > again at this level on the blanket assumption that the bear must
    > return. The breakdown in the VIX in an indication (and a strong one)
    > that they are probably wrong. It is possible that on Tuesday or Wednesday
    > there may be a sharp pullback in the markets and the signal that
    > the VIX has given may prove to be a bull trap (or bear trap from
    > the perspective of the VIX chart). However that would need to happen
    > in the next few days or the shorts will start to cover and sideline
    > money will pile on driving the market to the 200 DMA on the SPX.
    >
    Apr 13 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lotus Pharma Looks Greatly Underpriced [View article]
    Furthermore, if you're aware that LTUS is on sale, why don't you own it?

    Where is your credibility? If you're going to say that it's on sale.. Buy it.

    I don't let life pass me by.
    Glen
    Feb 21 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lotus Pharma Looks Greatly Underpriced [View article]
    I've been covering LTUS, I have a comment for the writer of this article. Adam Wasserman is the CFO of multiple chinese companies. In fact, I'll quote him: "Hi Glen:

    Me and my team manages

    GHII – Gold Horse International, Inc.
    LTUS – Lotus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
    CWSI – China Wind Systems, Inc.

    We also are involved with

    GNPH – Genesis Pharmaceuticals Enterprises, Inc.

    And several US public entities and on a limited basis another Chinese companies with the symbol CAAH.

    I leave for China on the 10th to go to LTUS and CWSI.

    Adam Wasserman
    "

    Anyway, the issue most people are going to overlook with LTUS is that they signed into a contractual agreement that they will have problems funding through their working capital. Furthermore, if they are unable to raise additional funding, they lose the whole she-bang. To the author: Look into GHII as well. Write one about that. If you need more companies in china that kick butt, shoot me an e-mail. I'm just glad that this article got published. I've been sending seekingalpha articles on some of these microcaps and they overlook them probably because I don't come from the name. If you would like, I could write a synopsis on several companies and you could send it to them for me.

    Thoughts?

    Anyway, I talk with Adam frequently... and am knee deep in chinese companies in general.
    Feb 21 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Around $50 Might Be a Core Holding [View article]
    Another good call by Paul. I own AAPL, I bought in around $90. Looking to buy more if it continues to go lower (I hope it does!) Selling these puts is a relatively safe idea.
    Jan 16 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share a Coke with Warren Buffett [View article]
    Yeah, I was referring to the person Notsosmart

    But, then i simply suggested investing in pepsi instead of coke.

    Actually, Buffett would be ahead of the game if he'd done this.

    I learn most of what I consider to be applicable knowledge outside of the classroom. In the classroom --- it's just how to be a good employee. The trick is translating the classroom material into being more than just a member of a system --- that is to say the person that owns the system.


    On Jan 10 01:19 PM Equity Has No Clue wrote:

    > HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...
    >
    > The man has made billions. Is that what they are teaching in MBAs
    > nowadays?
    >
    > No wonder we have a financial crisis!!!!
    Jan 15 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CME Group: Our Future Could Be in 'Futures' [View article]
    Paul,

    I liked NDAQ for the same reason. CME looks like it could be a lot better of an idea. Good call again.
    Dec 30 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Independence Day For Fannie And Freddie [View article]
    I think that the nature of the extensive dialog is required in this case because of the nature of the situation. When you have people who are effectively on your side putting together proposals that are not in your best interest in order to show a signal that the legislative push to eliminate the GSEs has not only no traction but also that congress is going to be ineffective at really doing anything on the topic, this is a multi-step process of understanding all of the angles and how it fits together. If you want the summary version, it's always in my disclosure, I own the two businesses long.

    That said, I agree with you. I always prefer to err on the side of "just getting it out there" as opposed to "not attempting to say what needs to be said." Especially since I feel that someone ought to be doing it and sometimes that someone has got to be me.
    Jul 6 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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