Glen Bradford

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

bobleem: Jim Cramer paid his dues in the '80s as a Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) broker, followed by 14 years at Cramer Berkowitz, his $450 million hedge fund, where he earned an average return of 24% a year after fees.

Know what Im saying?


On Jun 02 04:58 PM bobleem wrote:

> You don't instill confidence when you say you listen to Cramer, someone
> with a 47% success rate. Know what Im saying?

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

holmesnmanny: Long: For me I'm long if I own the stock or own call options that are currently around the trading price and expire in over a year (LEAPs).

For these particular ones, I own CNO, FITB, GNW, and ACAS stock. I also own Call Options on FITB and HBAN.

Sorry for the confusion.

aarc: I agree entirely. Sounds like you're probably beating the market too.


On May 14 08:24 PM holmesnmanny wrote:

> All of that, and you didn't feel the need to respond to my simple
> one-line post asking you to define "long" as used by yourself in
> the article?
>
> That really says a lot.

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

Wildhawk: I don't think using beta or standard deviation is a good measure for risk.
100% is a good metric because I don't think most "professionals" will be able to get it. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing --- not from the volatility of a company’s price. It's just that in the land of academia, you can prove risk as it relates to volatility. Look into the assumptions and look to Eugene Fama. Even look to Wikipedia. There are many studies that suggest this methodology runs on incorrect assumptions.
Fred Voetsch: Thanks. I do my best research from listening to others. You’re right. I got crushed. That’s why I’m beating the market by 20% as it stands right now since June 2008. On a side note, I was down 75% at the worst of it because I wasn’t selling into a bear market. Those stocks you mentioned, VSEC, SIGM, HURC, and MIDD are going to outperform the market in to the next 2 years. Jim Cramer paid his dues in the '80s as a Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) broker, followed by 14 years at Cramer Berkowitz, his $450 million hedge fund, where he earned an average return of 24% a year after fees. And, I shouldn’t listen to him? I only listen to people that beat the market. Yes, now you’re right about the macro economy, I got toasted this last fall cause I ignored it partly because I was in 25 Credit hours of MBA/Industrial Engineering Coursework. I agree with your last 2 points. I realize that I come off as cocky in this article. The purpose was to illustrate that there are companies that are doing fine now and that they are cheap from a historical standpoint. The direction is up. Thanks for the pointers.
Kyller: Good luck, I was at their shareholder meeting this Tuesday I believe. Saw the new board member. He looked like he knew what he was doing.
Alphameister: You hit the nail on the head. I agree with your analysis of your and my maneuverability that the big money people don’t have.
PROXIMO: Nope, they sure wouldn’t. Buffett only pulled 60% a year back when he was managing less money. 100% a month sure catches the eye though, doesn’t it?
Ames Tiedeman: Running up 700% should be taken into the perspective of the fall off a cliff over the last 2 years.
Jayinasia: Good strategy, see you at $60,000. In 1 year you’ll probably be $100K
Ifuwish2: Wait for the Citi dilution and then I think it will rise.
Stonedinvestor: It’s Cramer.
Alan von Altendorf: Glad you’re following someone, cause it’ll keep you in the game.
Alan Young: Yes, I did that last June. I was up 30% in a month and then proceeded to get crushed.
Hot Richard: I don’t like those odds. If you know how to count cards though, I’ll bet in your favor.
Dean: No thanks.
Guymar: I buy companies that nobody likes that in my opinion are going to be liked more as time progresses into the future.
FloridaBoy2: Luck has a bit to do with it --- but not all of it.
Users: That would be up, glad the shorting is back.
Living4Dividends: Ponzi didn’t keep true to his word, hence the scheme addendum.
Hope this helps, Glad I could stir up some comments on some great investment opportunities.

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

logicalthought:

I don't plan on disclosing when exactly I sell positions. But, I will say that I'm up over 700% on Conseco. Call me long or short term but I want at least a 10-bagger just to say that I got one and I called it.

The time frame to me although important is not troublesome. The bottom line this time is to sort through the train wreck and find perfectly good companies with a tarnished reputation set for reappraisal as the market dusts them off and says, "Hey, you're not so bad off after all."

I might sell in a week, I might sell in a month, I might sell in a year (depends on the situation). If bad news comes out that changes my opinion on a company --- that might trigger selling. If the stock price appreciates significantly, that might trigger selling. Usually, if the stock price depreciates --- that triggers buying. Also, I may sell if another stock I'm watching is going down and I want to buy that as it is becoming a better deal.

The goal isn't necessarily to minimize taxes as much as it is to make money after taxes.


On May 11 08:24 AM logicalthought wrote:

> >>I don’t respect people that recommend things that they themselves
> do not own.<<
>
> On the other hand, you can't have the "dump" before you do the "pump".
> For what period of time (or to exactly what price point) will you
> now lock in your ownership of your "recommendations"?