Glen Bradford

14 Tuition Breaking Stocks

blues,

My estimates of CNO's EPS are now $0.85

I'd be all sold out of this position at a P/E of 15. That's $12.75

Further, in the current economic climate, I'd be all sold out at $8 --- taking advantage of other opportunities.

I'm going to start selling around $6.

Hope this helps,

Glen


On Apr 11 07:02 PM Just singing the blues wrote:

> Glen,
>
> Great stuff, as usual --- thanks.
>
> Mffais show that Morgan Stanley bought 636,500 shares.
>
> With this type of news, do you think CNO will likely run closer to
> $6.80 or $13.60?

14 Tuition Breaking Stocks

hoooon,

funky does not mean seasonal. a seasonal company is still a normal company. good news! it gives those that understand how to deseasonalize company returns an edge. good news --- i am one of those people with an edge. Further good news, I'm going through a bunch of stocks this weekend and i'm looking through yours. Here's what i think in short.

cnoa looks good --- just watch out for uncollectible recievables, in Q3 2008, pretty much all sales were in A/R. i'm watching this one and probably going to pick up some shares. i am not really worried about the a/r because they were mostly accumulated because well hey! Q3 is seasonal. this was a record breaking year. wooohoo! plus, the CEO said that Q4 is set to be another blockbuster as well. go figure. the stocks i mentioned in this article, unlike ors and cnoa, have good A/R and cash from operations. but CNOA looks great. ORS could easily be an issue. MCI in 1995 had a big issue that i think is possible at ORS essentially propagating escallations of committment throughout small backboneless subsidiaries. the issue is the CEO only bought 500K Shares when over the last year, insiders sold out 20,000K shares. see what i'm talking about?

chrn --- doesnt have any revenues.. yuck. not interested in gambling. they just stopped getting revenues. Brilliant!

check up on CYXN's outstanding shares and convertibles, my estimates were half of what they should have been, since i believe therea are twice as many shares outstanding

dont like wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.

Also, Granger: I don't like TECH. Too expensive.

found this:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
meanwhile, I came across FEED, also looks like it should triple up to $7 at this point. just my opinion. but again, not as great a deal as cnoa.



On Apr 08 03:12 PM hooooon wrote:

> good article... glen, any insight on cnoa or chrn? both have numbers
> in line with nwd, although chrn has funky (seasonal?) books. other
> chinese lottery tickets i own and like: cyxn, ltus, ors (missed out
> on $1 spike), ghii. in the usa: wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.
>
> also took glenns good advice on cno; that is my large cap, stable
> company.

Nine Top China Plays

CHID: Negative EPS decreasing quarterly revenues, Don't like it

OPAI: Looks great, huge growth and selling for less than last reported cash. Huge opportunity here.

UTVG: Great and cheap, but it's not cheap enough for me. projecting 20% growth with a P/E of 2 is awesome though! That's a 10-bagger potentially.

CHCG: Great, Cheap, appears to have bottomed, worst case scenerio $0.38 as in cash/share... that's cash-total liabilities = lowest market cap. Growing in revs and eps. huge headlines, $8 high, so way off of high.

CMFO: $0.95 cent bottom (cash-total liabilities), lots of growth potential with new contract. year over year down. this is a turn around, not my type of game

ALRC: I just dont want to mess with this, the whole 100:3284 split is ... mind numbing.

LTON: also looks to be a turnaround play. not interested

CNTF: bad Q4, like it more than gro.. well no. i dont like either now that i'm looking at the numbers

GRO: Don't like it.








On Mar 11 08:14 AM theonlyteacher wrote:

> ALSO, you can see GRO cash per share is 2.75
> cntf cash per share is 1.87
> eps is 0.18
> lton
> alrc.ob cmfo.ob chcg.ob utvg.ob opai.ob chid.ob
>
> may be there is some risks and rewards in them
>
> thanks

Nine Top China Plays

I was unaware the chairman was obligated to buy back stock. That's a plus, I do know that a lot of the options are exercisable significantly higher than the present price.

My calendar says March 12th for Earnings Release
Q4 2008 New Dragon Asia Corporation Earnings Release

I put a lot of my thoughts on a discussion board and my website. The viral networking lowers my time to find great stock investment opportunities. Highly useful

investorshub.advfn.com...




On Mar 10 09:56 AM anil mewara wrote:

>
> Glen,
>
> I am very impressed by your research and sharing your knowledge.
>
> I came upon your article as I am an investor in NWD.
>
> I have a substantial stake in it and have averaged my cost of 100,000
> shares to .29 .
>
> I know it ought to rebound, was expecting earning release yesterday
> but did not happen.
> also, the chairman has to buy back a Million dollars worth of shares
> by July 09, he has to date purchased only 100K worth.
>
> Your thoughts please.
>
> Regards
> Anil
>
> On Mar 09 05:46 PM Glen Bradford wrote:

Nine Top China Plays

On the note of CYXI, Not mentioned

I had some of my chinese speaking friends try and shoot an email to the CEO in simple chinese, and I've discussed the situation with the CFO. I haven't gotten anything useful:

The following is what I've heard from Ren Hu

First of all the recent PR was not about the stock price of the company, not about the disputes between Ms Jiao and her investors in China.

The company has not decided what to do with its assets. Ms. Jiao is still in negotiation with the investors.


What special in me that caught your attention?

Which company are you talking about, CKGT or CYXI?


Basically I noticed he hopped off CKGT and onto CYXI.

Scary stuff... but the upside is 100x. Rule #1 is don't lose money, and I just dont know.


On Mar 10 08:10 AM theonlyteacher wrote:

> The loan is on the ceo not the company, how can they shout down the
> operation, it is soooo funny these chiease companies
>

Nine Top China Plays

My understanding is that there are two big ETFs to invest in china, FXI and PGJ. PGJ is my favorite of the two because FXI is financially heavy.

So, the question is why would i do my own diversification when I could have an ETF diversify for me? When you have a growing company selling at less than a price multiple of 2, the upside potential is more than 500%. Risk here is not knowing what you're doing. Risk is mitigated by doing your research on the companies and understanding what you're buying as well as not putting all your eggs in one basket. That said, all my eggs are shifting to the china basket. If china decides to eliminate foreign investment, then I'm toast. Otherwise, the upside on FXI or PGJ is probably 200%-300% in a couple years.

Same goes for HAO and CAF, just saw them for the first time. Claymore updated their website layout since the last time I visited. If you're an individual investor and just want to make money and can't read a balance sheet or income statement, and realize that china's price/gdp ratio is great as well as their potential for future growth. I definately agree. What I am doing by specifically choosing these 9 companies is choosing companies that if i diversify my money into, I believe will outperform every single index that is created, even with a few of them going bankrupt (even though I try to choose ones that bankruptcy is highly unlikely. I would have said the same thing about CYXI a couple weeks ago. The picture changed, not sure why.

Isn't buying an ETF speculating on a handful anyway? I don't believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, if that helps.

On Mar 09 12:30 PM fran wrote:

> author, please advise--
>
> why would one speculate on a handful when an ETF/CEF could offer
> growth and diversity protection, in a relatively novel environment[eg.
> HAO[etf], CAF[cef]]???