Glen Bradford

Cheers to the Zloty

Hey, you may be right. I'm trying to figure this thing out too.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Currently the PE is 5.42, the Zloty exchange rate is 3.38.

So, is CEDC a good buy at this price? Let's see.

I'm going to be conservative

G = 20%

P/E = 8+.5*G= 18

The company expects 2.5, and it's 3.38. Their 2009 forecasted EPS is $3.75

3.75*2.5/3.38 = 2009 EPS at current currency rates = $2.77

2.77*18 = what the current price should be at the current exchange rates and at the forecasted growth P/E

Target Price: $50, phew, that's a margin of safety.

So, how far can this currency swing before we are screwed?

Let's say that for each 5% the currency goes unfavorably, the company's growth rate decreases 1% and their 2009 earnings decrease 5% before exchange rates are applied. (Again, this is very very conservative).

Using that methodology,

Currency rate:projected price
3.549:45.17
3.718:39.71
3.887:34.85
4.056:30.51
4.225:26.63
4.394:23.149
4.563:20.03
4.732:17.236
4.901:14.729 (woohoo, that's where we are today!)
5.07:12.48
5.24:10.46

So, the current price is forecasting a 45% depreciation in the Zloty against the US Dollar based on that hypothesis.

I think CEDC is still a buy at these levels. Hope this helps.

Beat the Bull Market With Oil and Russia Plays

I'm buying TBT tomorrow.


On Jan 04 04:11 PM Glen Bradford wrote:

> I own RSX, DXO, CEDC, and NOV

Beat the Bull Market With Oil and Russia Plays

The purpose of the Bull Market article is to set the stage for buying stocks. If I'm learning anything, buying stocks in the middle of a bear market, say last June for example, isn't the call. You have to wait for signs of the end of the bear and the start of the bull. So, that article set that stage. Now that I'm feeling bullish, I'm looking for plays to ride back the reversion of strong means. DOW looks great (Dow chemical) right now at $15.41


On Jan 04 10:08 AM Against Aphobus wrote:

> I replied to your other article calling for a 2009 bull market (see
> below). This one seems far more valid. Oil should do well. Stocks
> have many issues left to overcome.
>
> On Jan 04 10:03 AM Against Aphobus wrote:

Beat the Bull Market With Oil and Russia Plays

I own RSX, DXO, CEDC, and NOV

Competitive Advantage in a Time of Uncertainty

Paul Said it. They're glorious to me as well. Looks like he found this article after me. Shucks.

CEDC: Profiting from a Market That Can Lead You to Drink

oh yeah, what's b/v.. is that book value?

i kind of was alarmed that it decreased? that's weird to me... but with the acquisitions it is possible.

i saw the whole russian fiasco coming with the whole oil collapse and i sold out of cedc around $60, figuring people would be stupid enough to sell it down to prices like $30, but seeing it this cheap is awesome :-)

CEDC: Profiting from a Market That Can Lead You to Drink

Hey Paul, just looked through your stuff --- ndaq, cedc, and air look good. i'm going to go through a few of your plays though, but last time i checked, stryker is too expensive. a few you might want to look into:

beav, bucy, aob, ej, hurc, mtw

and ... for the record.. i don't think you should suggest call/put spreads.. but what do i know, i sold all my cedc and bought 2010 calls @30 like a baboon.

Some Odds & Ends: Google, Mosaic, Central European Distribution and the VIX

Tell David to stop commenting these.. gosh. I didn't read the article, just read the headlines and the stocks you commented. Good work. I don't know about MOS. I saw the oil bubble bursting and I got out of all agriculture/oil --- but now I'm back.

My All-or-Nothing Strategy

Dad,

I'm not selling calls in the future. I'm buying them. For me, there are two viable ways to leverage up. The first is to use margin, which is less expensive than calls with the VIX at all time highs, but I just can't risk trading on margin because the risk is less limited than when I buy calls. Buying a call --- which is what I mentioned --- allows me to buy shares of a company at a later date at a specified price. I pay for this privilege. The downside risk of buying calls is losing 100%. I can't lose more than I put in. If I sell stock and buy long calls that expire a year or two from now, it's the "safest" way to leverage up.


On Nov 17 11:38 PM User 300271 wrote:

> I have not had a chance to go out to 2010 to see what you did, but
> I wish you hadn't sold you long for a position sometime in the future.
> I understand you are in college. Try keeping those positions in your
> portfolio and keep adding to them as you can and with this VIX when
> your underlying stock (whaterver it is) KCL goes up to 26 or 27 think
> of selling a covered Call whether in the monery around 25 or higher
> to say 30. If the stock drops or does not go over the strike price
> you just picked up a nice "dividend" so to speek for that month.
> Use that money for your monthly expenses. Say KCL goes down to 21
> like today. Go ahead and sell a 20 Put if it doesent go below 20
> in the month you picked up another "dividend" so to speek. There
> is no reason you should not own both positions in a month(a straddle)
> especially in this VIX enviornment. What is the worst that can happen.
> Someone could call you shares if you do not move the call options
> out at par or better before they expire and you just made what you
> sold the calls for + the strike price of the shares. Or someone may
> put the shares on you - again if you do not move the options out
> a month or 2 at par or better before they expire. In that case your
> on Margin, but you are selling calls and puts each month so you should
> be able to pay down that margin, still own the stock and have a little
> money left over for your college expenses. At best your stock trades
> between the straddle and you pull down a grand or two a month and
> cover those college expenses and you keep your positions in a time
> when YOU SHOULD NOT BE SELLING. Don't lose you nerve - A Dad.

My All-or-Nothing Strategy

Interesting insight. Something I'll definitely take into account and look into more.