Glen Bradford

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

bobleem: Jim Cramer paid his dues in the '80s as a Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) broker, followed by 14 years at Cramer Berkowitz, his $450 million hedge fund, where he earned an average return of 24% a year after fees.

Know what Im saying?


On Jun 02 04:58 PM bobleem wrote:

> You don't instill confidence when you say you listen to Cramer, someone
> with a 47% success rate. Know what Im saying?

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

holmesnmanny: Long: For me I'm long if I own the stock or own call options that are currently around the trading price and expire in over a year (LEAPs).

For these particular ones, I own CNO, FITB, GNW, and ACAS stock. I also own Call Options on FITB and HBAN.

Sorry for the confusion.

aarc: I agree entirely. Sounds like you're probably beating the market too.


On May 14 08:24 PM holmesnmanny wrote:

> All of that, and you didn't feel the need to respond to my simple
> one-line post asking you to define "long" as used by yourself in
> the article?
>
> That really says a lot.

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

Wildhawk: I don't think using beta or standard deviation is a good measure for risk.
100% is a good metric because I don't think most "professionals" will be able to get it. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing --- not from the volatility of a company’s price. It's just that in the land of academia, you can prove risk as it relates to volatility. Look into the assumptions and look to Eugene Fama. Even look to Wikipedia. There are many studies that suggest this methodology runs on incorrect assumptions.
Fred Voetsch: Thanks. I do my best research from listening to others. You’re right. I got crushed. That’s why I’m beating the market by 20% as it stands right now since June 2008. On a side note, I was down 75% at the worst of it because I wasn’t selling into a bear market. Those stocks you mentioned, VSEC, SIGM, HURC, and MIDD are going to outperform the market in to the next 2 years. Jim Cramer paid his dues in the '80s as a Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) broker, followed by 14 years at Cramer Berkowitz, his $450 million hedge fund, where he earned an average return of 24% a year after fees. And, I shouldn’t listen to him? I only listen to people that beat the market. Yes, now you’re right about the macro economy, I got toasted this last fall cause I ignored it partly because I was in 25 Credit hours of MBA/Industrial Engineering Coursework. I agree with your last 2 points. I realize that I come off as cocky in this article. The purpose was to illustrate that there are companies that are doing fine now and that they are cheap from a historical standpoint. The direction is up. Thanks for the pointers.
Kyller: Good luck, I was at their shareholder meeting this Tuesday I believe. Saw the new board member. He looked like he knew what he was doing.
Alphameister: You hit the nail on the head. I agree with your analysis of your and my maneuverability that the big money people don’t have.
PROXIMO: Nope, they sure wouldn’t. Buffett only pulled 60% a year back when he was managing less money. 100% a month sure catches the eye though, doesn’t it?
Ames Tiedeman: Running up 700% should be taken into the perspective of the fall off a cliff over the last 2 years.
Jayinasia: Good strategy, see you at $60,000. In 1 year you’ll probably be $100K
Ifuwish2: Wait for the Citi dilution and then I think it will rise.
Stonedinvestor: It’s Cramer.
Alan von Altendorf: Glad you’re following someone, cause it’ll keep you in the game.
Alan Young: Yes, I did that last June. I was up 30% in a month and then proceeded to get crushed.
Hot Richard: I don’t like those odds. If you know how to count cards though, I’ll bet in your favor.
Dean: No thanks.
Guymar: I buy companies that nobody likes that in my opinion are going to be liked more as time progresses into the future.
FloridaBoy2: Luck has a bit to do with it --- but not all of it.
Users: That would be up, glad the shorting is back.
Living4Dividends: Ponzi didn’t keep true to his word, hence the scheme addendum.
Hope this helps, Glad I could stir up some comments on some great investment opportunities.

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

logicalthought:

I don't plan on disclosing when exactly I sell positions. But, I will say that I'm up over 700% on Conseco. Call me long or short term but I want at least a 10-bagger just to say that I got one and I called it.

The time frame to me although important is not troublesome. The bottom line this time is to sort through the train wreck and find perfectly good companies with a tarnished reputation set for reappraisal as the market dusts them off and says, "Hey, you're not so bad off after all."

I might sell in a week, I might sell in a month, I might sell in a year (depends on the situation). If bad news comes out that changes my opinion on a company --- that might trigger selling. If the stock price appreciates significantly, that might trigger selling. Usually, if the stock price depreciates --- that triggers buying. Also, I may sell if another stock I'm watching is going down and I want to buy that as it is becoming a better deal.

The goal isn't necessarily to minimize taxes as much as it is to make money after taxes.


On May 11 08:24 AM logicalthought wrote:

> >>I don’t respect people that recommend things that they themselves
> do not own.<<
>
> On the other hand, you can't have the "dump" before you do the "pump".
> For what period of time (or to exactly what price point) will you
> now lock in your ownership of your "recommendations"?

Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks

Notice how I didn't recommend buying GGP. I actually believed that one was going under.

I'm still iffy on Citi. It's not one of my brightest ideas. My list of ideas: Note that the ones near the bottom might not be on my buy list, but could be on my watch list as potential turn-around plays. The closer you are to the top --- the safer you are.

ghii
chfi
opai
cnoa
akrk
xing
ltus
chgy
qxm
cxpo
pudc
cno
nwd
acas
chbu
fas
lpih
ckgt
gnw
cyxn
chcg
chme
cneh
pnx
csgh
caei
gnph
cmfo
ors
cse
hban
fitb
c
aig



On Apr 21 11:48 PM Nathaniel C wrote:

> Just wait until commerical real estate collapses (GGP filed bankruptcy).
> The majority of banks carry their commerial real estate at 95 cents
> on the dollar. The only one that has taken appropriate marks is Goldman
> Sachs who has written down the value of their CRE to 60 cents.

Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks

I left out a couple things, I'll add them as I remember them. Another feeling of mine is that I've been looking through lots of insurance and bank financial statements closing out 2008. It seems to be a fairly large trend that they were writing off more than they had to. Looking at this from a game theory perspective, it makes sense. They may have wanted to close out a terrible year by writing off so much that they could avoid write-offs in 2009. Looking at things this way, and the adjustments of mark-to-market to mark-to-profit, I believe that these huge write-offs will slowly start factoring in over the next couple years as unrealized gains. I don't fully expect these institutions to bring them all back in 1 quarter. Analysts love good trends and when mark-to-market comes back, the companies are going to want to be able to continue posting profits. It's as if they all have a safety bank account now that they can start dipping into in order to normalize their future earnings. I have also been picking up HBAN. My disclaimer is that by diversifying across C, FITB, HBAN, AIG; you can land a couple big winners (400%+ in less than a year) and probably tank one. Overall, you'll outperform the market. That's why I fully recommend FAS.

Hope this helps.


On Apr 14 07:42 PM suttoda wrote:

> very nice

Mark-to-Profit: Why I No Longer Hate Banks

I also agree with your interpretation on the VIX. I noticed it as well. When the market is crashing and the VIX is stable, as it was these past 2 months... I turned super bullish. I don't really have an opinion on the VIX right now. My opinion is that Financials are still severly underpriced based on the EPS that they're going to put out this year (2009). I also believe that even though banks are going to be cheating their way into earnings by mark-to-profit and no interest rates --- they are a steal right now. I am a bank-hater at heart.

I think this week financials will run. The dumb money out there will see banks going up and buy in --- because they see an upward trend. The smart money has already bought in. There is 90% dumb money to smart money. Get ready to ride. These things are going to be blasting off. That's just my opinion.

I didn't mention FITB. I like that one too because all the day traders I know cant stop yelling about it. My disclaimer is that buying FAS is the for sure winner. The rest are all hypothetically gambles. Citigroup can't go under and will probably go x3 this week. Just wait till the mutual funds can get it at $5.

I base most of my analysis on discounted cash flows. In a situation like this, I look at historic cash flows and ask myself: "Will this company survive?"

Hope this helps.


On Apr 13 08:16 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

> Check out my piece: VIX Breakdown Forecasts Bear Panic
>
> seekingalpha.com/insta...
>
>
> There is panic buying after hours in Citigroup, now up to $4.20.
> Also BAC.
>
> Here is an addendum to my piece:
> Question from this posting on MarketOracle.com:
>
> VIX showing buying panic?
>
> Just wanted to ask about your interpretation of the VIX. When I saw
> the VIX break down below 40, I took it as a sign that we'll see less
> panic in general, on the long side and the short side. Options implied
> volatility works both ways. Why did you see it as a set up for panic
> buying?
>
> Reply:
>
> It's interesting that there are many divergent interpretations of
> this indicator that has become widely monitored.
>
> First, clearly historical volatility has not diminished in this bull
> phase...we all know that this is "the fastest rally since 1933."
>
>
> The VIX tends to move inversely to the market. Technically the index
> had reached a point that demanded resolution implying a sharp break
> in either direction. A break down from the 200 DMA and the triangle
> formation would imply a continuation of the bull trend in stocks...and
> a sharp one. A move away from the 200 DMA is a fundamental change
> of trend. It means something very important is happening. Bears had
> been expecting an upside resolution to the VIX, coinciding with a
> top in the "bear market rally". They have tried to short the market
> again at this level on the blanket assumption that the bear must
> return. The breakdown in the VIX in an indication (and a strong one)
> that they are probably wrong. It is possible that on Tuesday or Wednesday
> there may be a sharp pullback in the markets and the signal that
> the VIX has given may prove to be a bull trap (or bear trap from
> the perspective of the VIX chart). However that would need to happen
> in the next few days or the shorts will start to cover and sideline
> money will pile on driving the market to the 200 DMA on the SPX.
>

14 Tuition Breaking Stocks

blues,

My estimates of CNO's EPS are now $0.85

I'd be all sold out of this position at a P/E of 15. That's $12.75

Further, in the current economic climate, I'd be all sold out at $8 --- taking advantage of other opportunities.

I'm going to start selling around $6.

Hope this helps,

Glen


On Apr 11 07:02 PM Just singing the blues wrote:

> Glen,
>
> Great stuff, as usual --- thanks.
>
> Mffais show that Morgan Stanley bought 636,500 shares.
>
> With this type of news, do you think CNO will likely run closer to
> $6.80 or $13.60?

14 Tuition Breaking Stocks

hoooon,

funky does not mean seasonal. a seasonal company is still a normal company. good news! it gives those that understand how to deseasonalize company returns an edge. good news --- i am one of those people with an edge. Further good news, I'm going through a bunch of stocks this weekend and i'm looking through yours. Here's what i think in short.

cnoa looks good --- just watch out for uncollectible recievables, in Q3 2008, pretty much all sales were in A/R. i'm watching this one and probably going to pick up some shares. i am not really worried about the a/r because they were mostly accumulated because well hey! Q3 is seasonal. this was a record breaking year. wooohoo! plus, the CEO said that Q4 is set to be another blockbuster as well. go figure. the stocks i mentioned in this article, unlike ors and cnoa, have good A/R and cash from operations. but CNOA looks great. ORS could easily be an issue. MCI in 1995 had a big issue that i think is possible at ORS essentially propagating escallations of committment throughout small backboneless subsidiaries. the issue is the CEO only bought 500K Shares when over the last year, insiders sold out 20,000K shares. see what i'm talking about?

chrn --- doesnt have any revenues.. yuck. not interested in gambling. they just stopped getting revenues. Brilliant!

check up on CYXN's outstanding shares and convertibles, my estimates were half of what they should have been, since i believe therea are twice as many shares outstanding

dont like wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.

Also, Granger: I don't like TECH. Too expensive.

found this:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
meanwhile, I came across FEED, also looks like it should triple up to $7 at this point. just my opinion. but again, not as great a deal as cnoa.



On Apr 08 03:12 PM hooooon wrote:

> good article... glen, any insight on cnoa or chrn? both have numbers
> in line with nwd, although chrn has funky (seasonal?) books. other
> chinese lottery tickets i own and like: cyxn, ltus, ors (missed out
> on $1 spike), ghii. in the usa: wwon, ezen, awne, avna, apdn.
>
> also took glenns good advice on cno; that is my large cap, stable
> company.

April Phoenix Stock Update

Forgot to mention, I have checked and verified CNO.

So far I'm up over 300% in a couple weeks.

I'm still buying, in fact I bought today.

Glen

April Phoenix Stock Update

Your strategy looks very familiar to that of the later years Graham. Check 2 1 2, Greenblatt.

Mohnish is making a killing applying this strategy.

www.gurufocus.com/news...

I like your style. Consider yourself followed.

Take a Risk with Conseco

My article was re-written. The initial title was "Conseco's Got Money", and the article was edited down to bare bones. There was more information on debt covenants and how having this doubling of cash that is not in the Q4 numbers pushes them into greener territory. The issue here is that Conseco may have more investment losses in the future. This issue is slowly being resolved as you notice that the global financial markets are being helicoptered with life saver money.

Break out the surf board and catch the wave of opportunity.


On Mar 23 09:48 AM alivewweb wrote:

> The point of speculation is outrageous returns in a short period
> of time and the point of investing is the same but the time span
> is different. The stock market has proven once again it is not the
> place to put your money when you think you are saving it.
>
> In hindsight we were all speculating to different degrees as we are
> now. Even those watching from the sidelines with their hordes of
> cash. Players who are down now should realize it is a long ball game
> and like the Superbowl you are in it to win it.
>
> Many of the best speculations have occurred when investors stop counting
> the companies assets and get caught up in the downward price spiral
> of the stock. If you believe in the company and its managers then
> double down or triple down or quadruple down.
> It Is the only way to win this game.
>
> CNO is also a personal speculation of mine as is GNW, ACAS and FMD.

Conseco, Inc. Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

CNO looks like a lot of upside to me. The downside is on March 17th if the auditors don't like them. Otherwise, this roller coaster is set to explode through the roof.

I came across CNO through my friend and old school-mate Patrick Davenport. Below are a few quotes about him and CNO
Specifically with CNO: they won't default and if they do, they will recontract their debt.

with respect to default: If they do, it won't matter.

Companies rest covenents all the time.

Conseco will post a profit in the 2nd quarter if not the first.

It takes about a quarter to go into both serious bankruptcy procedures as well as debt collection.

Therefore, it will be hard to convince a judge of the need for either bankruptcy or insolvency when they post a profit.

The only reason they didn't in the 4th quarter was because they were spinning off their bad policies. They already warned the market in the 3rd that they were releasing their long term care policies in 2009.

If you take the spin off out of the equation, they were positive.

Therefore in the long run their problems are not real. However, perception of reality drive the stock.
I look for duh plays as well. My definition of duh is a stock whose under 2 dollars but has a 52 week high of more than double the current trading value