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Glenn Abrett

 
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  • Unthinkable, Unimaginable And Unspeakable: Why Wall Street Clings To The Herbalife Myth [View article]
    Thanks -- they don't like me much. But they put up with me. SA loves thes HLF articles because they generate page views. Its their business. But, unlike say tsla, some of these articles seem pretty fraudulent and if I were SA I would be a bit careful. Particularly that article about the author's friends unrevealed letter to the SEC which really should not have been allowed.
    Sep 17 05:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time For Caution Has Arrived [View article]
    Noam,

    The man who set me on my career path many, many years ago!!

    Stocks that seem to do well in a 'risk on' environment are the high growth stocks whose PE tends to also be high -- FB,NFLX,YELP,AMZN,CMG,... and many smaller companies, especially small biotechs. Stocks of this type often reward investors with outsize profits.

    In March, when the Ukraine crisis flared, those stocks saw their prices fall dramatically. The theory, at the time, was that people had gotten nervous and decided to be RiskOff -- that is to sell the riskiest (and potentially most rewarding) stocks and put their money in supposedly safer places.
    Sep 17 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unthinkable, Unimaginable And Unspeakable: Why Wall Street Clings To The Herbalife Myth [View article]
    Do you honestly think HLF does anywhere near as much harm as XOM or GM or MCD or any cigarette company? Please. Get your priorities straight. HLF is minor league at best. If you are outraged at corporate malfeasance then direct your outrage at an appropriate target.
    Sep 17 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unthinkable, Unimaginable And Unspeakable: Why Wall Street Clings To The Herbalife Myth [View article]
    Purple-K -- see below but I will answer you directly. HLF deceives ignorant folks. So do a vast army of corporations. That deception is known as advertising. Do you think anyone would eat the disgusting, greasy overpriced deadly food that MCD serves if the company didn't deceive them with advertising?

    HLF is small potatoes. The harm they do is mostly to give people false hope and extract a modest amount of money for that false hope. MCD kills. GM kills. Every cigarette company kills. Please. I have read many SA articles on HLF. It is all bull. Mostly made up. Or exaggerated. There is obviously a well-coordinated and likely quite illegal short campaign against the company.

    If you are so righteous about protecting the little guy from the depredations of big mean nasty corporations there are far more worthy targets of your energy than HLF.
    Sep 17 05:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unthinkable, Unimaginable And Unspeakable: Why Wall Street Clings To The Herbalife Myth [View article]
    six -- no it is your ignorance that is stunning. An HLF shake is not particularly good for you. But the grease that goes into McDonald's french fries is clearly poisonous. It causes cancer and heart attacks. The hamburgers are also cooked in grease (not canola oil or olive oil) that is deadly. Also the sheer size of MCD and the number of people their food sickens. The number of lives that are shortened by them completely dwarfs any harm that HLF does. Yet we don't see major hedge fund managers assaulting MCD. We don't see 2 articles a week on SA attacking them. If one goes to some article on SA glorifying MCD and its great dividends and gives a negative comment one is attacked on all sides.

    My point is basically that HLF does far less harm than many much larger and more powerful companies. The campaign against it has exactly zero to do with people wanting 'justice' and is entirely motivated by what appears to be a well-coordinated, and almost certainly ILLEGAL short campaign.
    Sep 17 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM And Intel: The End Game For IBM Semiconductor [View article]
    This article is tres amusing. In a way the author is probably unaware of. IBM's future as a vibrant technology company rests entirely on the major AI breakthrough they made -- Watson -- possibly the single most impressive piece of tech the human race has produced to this point. I know. Its my field. Watson blew everyone away -- solving problems in Language understanding, Knowledge Representation and Information Retrieval that the field had been bogged down in for decades. A tour de force. A tribute to the power of being agnostic, not worrying about theory and simply getting the job done. Also the power of internal funding of projects like this at a major corporation where top draw scientist/engineers can collaborate without some Darpa know nothing looking over their shoulders.

    What can Watson be used for other than, almost miraculously, to be able to answer Jeopardy questions? Obviously for search. A far more powerful search engine than Google could even imagine. Unfortunately Watson is a ridiculous computation hog. Probably not enough computer horsepower on the planet to allow commercial search by simultaneous millions using Watson.

    So. The situation for IBM is basically this. Can Intel create faster processors fast enough for IBM to stay viable until Watson becomes commercially feasible as a search engine?
    Sep 17 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Long term it seems so obvious. In retrospect. Apple will take significant market share in developed countries. And very possibly some market share among the not-so-fortunate. Apple will also maintain or increase profit margins. And apple will continue to increase the amount of money folks in its ecosystem spend.

    Basically it is a simple equation. Number in Ecosystem * Spending by Each * net profit margin = profits. And this latest cycle is going to increase the first by a significant amount, the second by a modest amount and, possibly even the third.

    If the stock stays near 100, I expect the trailing PE to be reduced to around 11 or 12 by the middle of next year. Which probably means the stock is going to rise -- maybe by as much as 40% as people factor in an increasing growth rate as well as increased trailing profits and collection of cash.

    But, as Mr. Pendola correctly points out, what the stock does over the next 6-9 months has a lot to do with perception, the general state of the market and other factors out of the control of apple's control.
    Sep 17 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    If you actually look at the market over some reasonable period, what you see is low volatility and a steady upward climb. Reactions to news and events seem sharp in this broader background context of low volatility. But in fact even the biggest swings are fairly tame.

    Maybe the fed will try to screw up this wonderful goldilocks world of no inflation, slow GDP growth and rapid corporate profit growth fueled by rapid growth of technology. But probably they won't try and it is not even clear they could succeed as bond yields are already way higher than the yields in many far shakier European economies. Hard to see the gap between say the Bund and the 10 year treasury growing any larger than it already is and believe me, the Bund yield is unlikely to rise anytime soon.
    Sep 16 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unthinkable, Unimaginable And Unspeakable: Why Wall Street Clings To The Herbalife Myth [View article]
    My mouth drops. I am again completely and utterly bewildered by this. Why? HLF sells useless products. Along with thousands of other companies. At least they don't sell clearly poisonous food like, say MCD. In fact many of the largest consumer products companies sell similar meal replacement products. HLF uses the Amway model to sell their products. Completely and utterly unscrupulous. But legal. And really, didn't old Will once say 'a fool and his money are soon parted'? HLF simply contributes to this age old truism.

    But of all the unscrupulous companies selling crappy products why has HLF been singled out for this massive campaign. Two articles a week on SA. Insane vitriol by hedge fund shorts. Some of the SA articles (purloined letters, genius web entrepreneurs) are obviously made up. Others, such as this one, are filled with the most bizarre hyperbole. I mean if HLF didn't exist and someone wrote a fictional novel with an HLF-like company at its heart, it would have to be science fiction. No one could possibly believe what is going on.

    My prediction? One day HLF will decide to sue Ackerman and SA and many of the fraudulent authors who write this nonsense for libel.

    Really guys. And gals. There is a lot of bad stuff in the world. A lot of causes worthy of energy. A lot of good ole American companies worth bashing (GM? MCD? Raytheon?). HLF is very, very small potatoes and the harm they do, if any, is laughable compared to the harm MCD does or the harm any cigarette company does or the harm that the maker of 'unsafe at any speed' vehicles has done to hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of lives over the past 75 years.
    Sep 16 10:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time For Caution Has Arrived [View article]
    Bret,

    Loved your Gild articles -- one of which convinced me to overcome my 'if everyone thinks this stock is so great, there must be something hidden that is wrong' reluctance.

    I have been very nervous entering this week. Fed + Baba + Scotland -- too much volatility even for this hardened high growth investor. Sold 1/4 of my most aggressive (forward call options) positions Friday, some at a loss. Watched all my favorite stocks except apple get positively crushed Monday.

    Now? Am hopeful after todays comeback that a lot of the monday crushing really did have to do with Baba. And today reminded me that no one has any idea what the market will do tomorrow.

    One question I want to ask everyone. Why would the fed get more hawkish when there is absolutely no inflation pressure anywhere. With commodities way down and Europe weak and real unemployment still very high we seem more in danger of deflation than inflation. So again, why would the fed be more hawkish tomorrow?

    Guess I can bet on it.
    Sep 16 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alibaba Amazon's Replacement As The Online Retail Growth Leader? [View article]
    It Is!!! Just sold half the weekly puts bought at open for enough profit so that the other half are a free roll. My very first short amazon profit if sixteen years. Of course most of my other positions are squashed today, but still.
    Sep 15 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Not All Glitter And Glamour [View article]
    Eric,

    The problem is cost. In a 100k car the cost of the battery (which is absolutely related to the energy density) can be hidden. In a 35k car the cost of the battery is overwhelming. The batteries must get much cheaper to manufacture. The most important part of this is making them more energy dense so fewer individual batteries are needed. Which also makes the pack lighter.

    Randy Carlson is our resident expert -- look at his article(s) on this subject. But I believe that present battery tech will not allow the creation of a 35k car that can accelerate almost like a model s and go 200 miles on a single charge.
    Sep 12 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alibaba Amazon's Replacement As The Online Retail Growth Leader? [View article]
    Pleeeeease. Don't tempt me. I vowed never again the last time a series of puts I had bought on amzn expired worthless. The seventh time? the eight? the ninth? I can't remember -- the first were sometime in 1998 or 1999.

    But have been concocting up a similar thesis.
    On the other hand amazon is a true unicorn. The only large stock in history that has defied the weighing machine of the market for so long.
    Sep 12 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: An Excellent Short Candidate (Fundamentally, That Is) [View article]
    Wall Street Hippie.

    1] Best all-time name on SA. I wish I would have thought of it.
    2] Reasonable, rational no-hype amazon article. Could actually be the first of its kind anywhere.
    3] Shorting amazon, perhaps on ten different occasions since its IPO, has proven to be my worst investment ever. "Never again." I shout as some collection of puts expire worthless. But it sure does look tempting right now as investor sentiment does seem to have changed and alibaba IPO might really begin a deep collapse in share value. Or not.

    Thanks again for a great article.
    Sep 12 08:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Not All Glitter And Glamour [View article]
    It is an analogy Mr Hmmpf. Let me spell it out.
    Isreal = small, low population, very powerful.
    Tesla = small, sells few cars, very powerful.

    Egypt = big, large population, very weak
    GM = big, sells lots of cars, very weak
    Sep 12 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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