Comments on Glenn Cutler's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/glenn-cutler/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-368824 368824 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 13:08:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-355386 355386 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 09:49:51 -0500 AskaMarketTechnician.com ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-354252 354252 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 08:56:28 -0500 3 days after your post, they dropped the div in half.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-347190 347190 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 07:17:50 -0500
they can move up to a 10 percent yield with only a slight easing in the markets, with an effective 40 percent return per annum over the next 2 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-346058 346058 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 01:46:20 -0500
1. The market cap is $280M with an EV of $2.8B. That's a 10% equity slice. If you see the property values go down more than 10%, the equity is essentially toast. Yes, they can retain capital. All you're telling me is the stock will go lower until they can retain enough capital to build up actual equity value again and pay a dividend. There's a little less of a point in owning a REIT if there's no dividend.

2. A number of Real Estate insiders are terrified there's a collapse coming in the commercial market in New York. I can't speak to the rest of the country, but they've already initiated discussions with their lenders to head off the eventuality that they're running afoul of their covenants even at 40% LTV. The problem is that the guys that are levered at 80-90% LTV (PEI would be in this group) are going to fail and disgorge millions of sqft into the market. This will push asset values down significantly, regardless of leverage levels.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345913 345913 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 21:35:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345822 345822 REITs don't trade on earnings they trade on cash flow, they can lose > money IF they have the cashflow to pay the dividend, not that I have > looked at any of these 3, but at least know the sector before you > slam an idea]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:54:18 -0500
finance.google.com/fin...

And, of course, I can't help but notice that you neglected the rest of my argument. Don't you think major tenant loses will result in a declining cash flow...eh? Don't you also think that they might easily utilize the stock versus cash IRS provision for dividends in order to conserve cash given forward projections of greater losses?

On Jan 04 05:27 PM 22thoroughbred wrote:

> REITs don't trade on earnings they trade on cash flow, they can lose
> money IF they have the cashflow to pay the dividend, not that I have
> looked at any of these 3, but at least know the sector before you
> slam an idea]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345761 345761 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:27:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345748 345748 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:05:30 -0500
In fact, latest reports for retail store closings are horrific. Some expect an additional 200,000 store closings in 2009 and 2-3,000 mall closures. The office market isn't looking any brighter with unemployment rising which has shown to have a direct correlation to office space occupancy.

Adding to all of this, and to any of these above REITs, the new IRS temporary guidance for REITs issued on Dec. 10th that allows them to issue stock in lieu of cash for their dividends until Dec. 2009. You will not be able to bank any cash parking money there and the risk going forward for commercial real estate is substantial.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345515 345515 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 12:55:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345514 345514 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 12:53:10 -0500 Let me mention only the Russian housing market. Our marketing research real estate market showed that house prices in the second half of 2008 fell by 40%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113045-a-troika-of-reits-creating-higher-income-in-a-depressed-market?source=feed#comment-345495 345495 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 12:33:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109693-iamgold-expect-a-move-higher?source=feed#comment-324757 324757 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 12:39:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109693-iamgold-expect-a-move-higher?source=feed#comment-323810 323810 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 11:18:53 -0500