Why AIG Is Going To Be A Great Turnaround Investment [View article]
@Phil I have previously posted an article named "AIG - Undervalued and misunderstood" in which I run some basic math showing the accretion in book value coming from share repurchases
@all The more controversial and shunned, the better the stock. At least I have some more time to grab stock and warrants on the cheap. Mark my words: AIG will be hot and heavy only AFTER shares have been repurchased and the Treasury is out
This is directed at those of you who engage in a barrage of personal attacks directed at someone who dares to question an investment thesis: The market consists of buyers and sellers. I thought this was a forum for mature, professional individuals. If you can't even deal with the challenge of an opposing opinion, why are you investing in the first place?
The Market Still Does Not Recognize AIG's Value [View article]
"It is that uncertainty along with the overhang of the sale of 70% of the government's ownership which values the shares at current pricing"
It is exactly this kind of narrow-minded thinking that makes AIG a super bargain. As long as the mainstream stays away from the stock and waits for the government to get out, stock and warrants will be great buys. Those investors who now wouldnt want to touch the stock will be eagerly jumping in - after the government is divested - at meaningfully higher prices. Mark my words: As soon as the government gets out, investors will again jump at AIG. I rather buy today at $35 than at $70.
Unqualified, superficial and unsubstantiated arguments like this: "Bunch of crooks, I would never put one penny of my money in the stock even if it was going to triple. Same goes for BAC and others" do not even deserve a special consideration.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
@uncommon sense look who is coming around..."buy when others are fearful". This is my guiding investing principle. Attracts a lot of criticism though.
@frank " but you're also showing a lack of knowledge when it comes to these types of crises"
I think personal attacks like this are not helping. With my post I made the general point, that this crisis is overblown and a focus on other countries with equally disturbing debt levels might be warranted. And I disagree with the majority of the points you have made.
"They can increase exports and productivity (employment) by adjusting capital flows within its borders". How do they adjust CFs within their borders? Investors around the world, including central banks, especially the Asians, decide about capital flows to a large degree. Besides, the US has repeated over and over they want a strong dollar. The US, until now, continues to have large current account deficits.
"Japan controls its own currency, therefore controls the ability to print new currency, to dilute existing bond debts, to issue new bonds, and to manipulate interest rates to great advantage during crises of confidence (like massive debt overhangs)."
I assume you mean this point to be a positive. And where did it get Japan with that kind of policy: a decade of no growth and highest debt in world when they could "just dilute existing debt"?
Spain has the backing of the European central bank, which has shown in the past, that it will step in. EU leaders are not going to let Spain or their banks fail. They didnt even let Greece fully fail. Next year we will be talking about another crisis and Spain will be off the table.
I am going to follow-up with an extensive Telefonica analysis over the next week.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
@frank I note your point. Please also note that Greece has higher debt of 165% of GDP and insolvency of banks was not even an issue in their debt agreement with the European Union. The EU will never allow Spanish banks to fail on a broad basis. This is one of the extremely negatively skewed events that will not materialize.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
How do you justify talking about the European debt crisis when the US and Japan have significantly higher debt ratios? Shouldnt they be in the headlines just as well? I am contrarian and I do not buy into this pessimism especially when the arguments are as unsubstantiated as they are.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
@openoceanstar I own Goldman Sachs stocks instead. I bought when everyone thought all financial firms are going bust in 2008/2009. This one is no different.
In the post I made a point about emotions-driven investment. A point you apparently missed. So I assume you dont work at Goldman either.
3 Undervalued Alternatives To Duke Energy And Exelon [View article]
Why AIG Is Going To Be A Great Turnaround Investment [View article]
Clearly unsubstantiated.
Why AIG Is Going To Be A Great Turnaround Investment [View article]
I have previously posted an article named "AIG - Undervalued and misunderstood" in which I run some basic math showing the accretion in book value coming from share repurchases
@all
The more controversial and shunned, the better the stock. At least I have some more time to grab stock and warrants on the cheap. Mark my words: AIG will be hot and heavy only AFTER shares have been repurchased and the Treasury is out
3 mREITs To Avoid Like The Plague [View article]
5 Reasons To Buy Goldman Sachs [View article]
5 Reasons To Buy Goldman Sachs [View article]
Annaly Q1 2012 - More Reasons To Go Short [View article]
AIG: Undervalued And Misunderstood (Part 2- Share Repurchases) [View article]
The Market Still Does Not Recognize AIG's Value [View article]
It is exactly this kind of narrow-minded thinking that makes AIG a super bargain. As long as the mainstream stays away from the stock and waits for the government to get out, stock and warrants will be great buys. Those investors who now wouldnt want to touch the stock will be eagerly jumping in - after the government is divested - at meaningfully higher prices. Mark my words: As soon as the government gets out, investors will again jump at AIG. I rather buy today at $35 than at $70.
Unqualified, superficial and unsubstantiated arguments like this: "Bunch of crooks, I would never put one penny of my money in the stock even if it was going to triple. Same goes for BAC and others"
do not even deserve a special consideration.
Stay away from the herd.
Citigroup Worth At Least $145 Per Share Over Next Cycle [View article]
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
look who is coming around..."buy when others are fearful". This is my guiding investing principle. Attracts a lot of criticism though.
@frank
" but you're also showing a lack of knowledge when it comes to these types of crises"
I think personal attacks like this are not helping. With my post I made the general point, that this crisis is overblown and a focus on other countries with equally disturbing debt levels might be warranted. And I disagree with the majority of the points you have made.
"They can increase exports and productivity (employment) by adjusting capital flows within its borders". How do they adjust CFs within their borders?
Investors around the world, including central banks, especially the Asians, decide about capital flows to a large degree. Besides, the US has repeated over and over they want a strong dollar. The US, until now, continues to have large current account deficits.
"Japan controls its own currency, therefore controls the ability to print new currency, to dilute existing bond debts, to issue new bonds, and to manipulate interest rates to great advantage during crises of confidence (like massive debt overhangs)."
I assume you mean this point to be a positive. And where did it get Japan with that kind of policy: a decade of no growth and highest debt in world when they could "just dilute existing debt"?
Spain has the backing of the European central bank, which has shown in the past, that it will step in. EU leaders are not going to let Spain or their banks fail. They didnt even let Greece fully fail. Next year we will be talking about another crisis and Spain will be off the table.
I am going to follow-up with an extensive Telefonica analysis over the next week.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
I note your point. Please also note that Greece has higher debt of 165% of GDP and insolvency of banks was not even an issue in their debt agreement with the European Union. The EU will never allow Spanish banks to fail on a broad basis. This is one of the extremely negatively skewed events that will not materialize.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]
I own Goldman Sachs stocks instead. I bought when everyone thought all financial firms are going bust in 2008/2009. This one is no different.
In the post I made a point about emotions-driven investment. A point you apparently missed. So I assume you dont work at Goldman either.
There Is No European Debt Crisis: Why I Am Buying Telefonica [View article]