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Graham Summers

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  • How to Manufacture a Recovery [View article]
    Hi Vox,

    The claim that government tweaking is used to boost jobs number is far from 100% incorrect. Perhaps you'd like to explain the numerous downward revisions the BLS posts for jobs, including the 800,000 downward revision for the period April 2008-March 2009.

    I'd also like to hear you explanation of how in January's 2010 employment report, the BLS showed a jump of 520,000+ jobs for Women 20 years and older while the group of Men 20 years & over lost 1,000 jobs while this latest March 2010 employment report showed the opposite: a 290,000 jump in jobs for Men 20 and older and 42,000 jobs lost for Women 20 and older (this was noted by Bill King in his King Reports).

    Also, how did we get 264,000 new jobs in March with Men 20 and older accounting for 290,000 of them?

    Also, for your claims that the Government doesn't identify peaks and troughs, I recall Bush, Paulson, and numerous other GOVERNMENT officials claiming the US economy was sound and strong until September 2008 when suddenly we needed to dish out $700+ billion to Wall Street or else the economy would implode.

    However, you are correct in asserting the NBER is not a government organization. It is a private non-profit organization.

    As for you rebuttal that this is a depression if the economy doesn't continue to improve, you've got to be joking. You really think the economy has improved? I don't mean in terms of the bogus data put out and "jobless recovery" nonsense, but in terms of actual jobs, actual economic realities, and the like. Please explain to the 36 million folks on food stamps how the economy is improving. Same goes for the millions falling off of unemployment. And the underemployed folks who want full time work and can't find it. I'm sure they'd love to hear how your economic views and data support that the US economy is in "recovery."

    As for finding a policy that worked, I fail to see how shifting trillions in garbage debt to the public's balance sheet fixed anything. Ditto for backing the commercial paper market and the other policies you cite. In fact, I would love to hear how these policies worked in the context of what's happening in the US Treasury market today.
    Apr 11 10:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Manufacture a Recovery [View article]
    Hi Vox,

    Sorry but you are the one cherry picking. The +81,000 birth-death adjustment is a fact. The claim that this metric is always used to boost jobs may not be 100% correct, but this adjustment has for the most part been used to over-emphasize jobs numbers (as evinced by the numerous downward revisions we've seen in employment numbers of the last two years).

    The recession did not start in December 2007, unless you believe the official "government" data which is a joke. We had a jobless recovery in 2003-2004 and have not been in an actual REAL economic expansion since the late '90s. Credit fueled housing bubble? Sure. Sustainable economic expansion that adds net jobs? Nope.

    As for "cherry picking" claims, I'm sorry if I don't use enough month to month data for your tastes. Unfortunately month to month data is for the most part garbage thanks to the countless adjustments and gimmicks used by the BLS. Of course, every essay I write on this material should include every data point possible to provide the best context for any conclusions.

    What do I think this means? The recovery is a joke. The economy is not improving. The bean counters are manufacturing better data to make things look better. We are in a Depression. None of the policies implemented have fixed anything. Etc. The record Stimulus/Bailouts went into bankers' bonuses and did nothing for Main Street.

    Is that clear enough?
    Apr 5 05:52 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geely Bidding for Volvo? Reportedly $293M [View article]
    I DID NOT write this. Why is it published under my name?
    Aug 1 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment