Graham Summers'  Instablog

With all this blather about “green shoots” and economic “recovery” and new “bull market,” I thought I’d inject a little reality into the collective financial dialogue. The following are ALL true, all valid, and all horrifying…

Enjoy!!!

1)   High Frequency Trading Programs account for 70% of market volume

High Frequency Trading Programs (HFTP) collect a ¼ of a penny rebate for every transaction they make. They’re not interested in making a gains from a trade, just collecting the rebate.

Let’s say an institutional investor has put in an order to buy 15,000 shares of XYZ company between $10.00 and $10.07. The institution’s buy program is designed to make this order without pushing up the stock price, so it buys the shares in chunks of 100 or so (often it also advertises to the index how many shares are left in the order).

First it buys 100 shares at $10.00. That order clears, so the program buys another 200 shares at $10.01. That clears, so the program buys another 500 shares at $10.03. At this point an HFTP will have recognized that an institutional investor is putting in a large staggered order.

The HFTP then begins front-running the institutional investor. So the HFTP puts in an order for 100 shares at $10.04. The broker who was selling shares to the institutional investor would obviously rather sell at a higher price (even if it’s just a penny). So broker sells his shares to the HFTP at $10.04. The HFTP then turns around and sells its shares to the institutional investor for $10.04 (which was the institution’s next price anyway).

In this way, the trading program makes ½ a penny (one ¼ for buying from the broker and another ¼ for selling to the institution) AND makes the institutional trader pay a penny more on the shares.

And this kind of nonsense now comprises 70% OF ALL MARKET TRANSACTIONS. Put another way, the market is now no longer moving based on REAL orders, it’s moving based on a bunch of HFTPs gaming each other and REAL orders to earn fractions of a penny.

Currently, roughly five billion shares trade per day. Take away HFTP’s transactions (70%) and you’ve got daily volume of 1.5 billion. That’s roughly the same amount of transactions that occur during Christmas (see the HUGE drop in late December), a time when almost every institution and investor is on vacation.

HFTPs were introduced under the auspices of providing liquidity. But the liquidity they provide isn’t REAL. It’s largely microsecond trades between computer programs, not REAL buy/sell orders from someone who has any interest in owning stocks.

In fact, HFTPs are not REQUIRED to trade. They’re entirely “for profit” enterprises. And the profits are obscene: $21 billion spread out amongst the 100 or so firms who engage in this (Goldman Sachs is the undisputed king controlling an estimated 21% of all High Frequency Trading).

So IF the market collapses (as it well could when the summer ends and institutional participation returns to the market in full force). HFTPs can simply stop trading, evaporating 70% of the market’s trading volume overnight. Indeed, one could very easily consider HFTPs to be the ULTIMATE market prop as you will soon see.

TAKE AWAY 70% of MARKET VOLUME AND YOU HAVE FINANCIAL ARMEGGEDON.

2)   Even counting HFTP volume, market volume has contracted the most since 1989

Indeed, volume hasn’t contracted like this since the summer of 1989. For those of you who aren’t history buffs, the S&P 500’s performance in 1989 offers some clues as what to expect this coming fall. In 1989, the S&P 500 staged a huge rally in March, followed by an even stronger rally in July. Throughout this time, volume dried up to a small trickle.

What followed wasn’t pretty.

 

Anytime stocks explode higher on next to know volume and crap fundamentals you run the risk of a real collapse. I am officially going on record now and stating that IF the S&P 500 hits 1,000, we will see a full-blown Crash like last year.

3)   This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing More

To date, the stock market is up 48% since its March lows. This is truly incredible when you consider the underlying economic picture: normally when the market rallies 40%+ from a bear market low, the economy is already nine months into recovery mode. Indeed, assuming the market is trading based on earnings, the S&P 500 is currently discounting earnings growth of 40-50% for 2010. The odds of that happening are about one in one million.

A closer examination of this rally reveals the degree to which “junk” has triumphed over value. Since July 10^th: 

§  The 50 smallest stocks have outperformed the largest 50 stocks by 7.5%.

§  The 50 most shorted stocks have beaten the 50 least shorted stocks by 8.8%.

Why is this?

Because this rally has largely been a short squeeze.

Consider that the short interest has plunged 72% in the last two months. Those industries that should be falling the most right now due to the world’s economic contraction (energy, materials, etc.) have seen the largest drop in short interest: Energy -90%, Materials -94%, Financials -86%.

In simple terms, this rally was the MOTHER of all short squeezes. The fact that it occurred on next to no volume and crummy fundamentals sets the stage for a VERY ugly correction.

Those are the first three reasons. I’ve saved the two BEST for tomorrow’s essay. Make sure you don’t miss it!

If you’re worried about the coming collapse in stocks, I suggest a RISK FREE subscription to my confidential investment letter: Private Wealth Advisory.

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Most importantly of all, you would have understood exactly what the Fed’s moves meant for investors. There would be no confusion, no guessing games, just simple easy to understand explanations of what was going on, what it meant for your money, and how to best profit from the market volatility.

Private Wealth Advisory costs $180 a year. That’s $0.50 a day. And I always offer a full 30-day RISK FREE trial period. Because Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly service, this means you have one month to explore the historical archives AND receive four new hot off the press issues (one a week) without risking any of your money: if you’re not 100% totally satisfied with my investment insights and gains from my picks in the first 30 days, I’ll give you every penny of your $180 back, no questions asked.

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Good Investing!

Graham Summers

Yesterday we discussed the Boomer generation and how they’ve driven every economic/ financial development of the last 30+ years.

Today, we’re going to analyze how the Financial Crisis has changed Boomer sentiment, spending behavior, and investment strategies. Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama, and the rest of the government can implement whatever policies they like, but if the Boomers aren’t buying it… it ain’t gonna work.

And right now, the Boomers are FED UP.

Let’s consider where Boomers sat before the financial crisis occurred. In early 2008, Boomers:

• Controlled $13 trillion (50%+) in US investable assets
• Controlled 50% of all discretionary income
• Purchased 43% of all new cars
• Accounted for 79% of all leisure travel spending
• Ate out four to five times a week

In simple terms, Boomers were THE money flow for the US.  In light of this, for the US economy to get back on track any time soon (whether it’s through Stimulus, job growth, etc), Boomers need to participate in a big way.

The only problem is that they won’t.

During the recession in the early ‘80s, Boomers were just entering the work force (ages 16-34). The market demographic was technically still in its infancy and growing in economic clout.

In the recession in the early ‘90s, Boomers were ages 26-44. Now controlling most of the wealth in the US they could take a hit and come right back buying more stuff, using their credit cards, and investing in stocks and other investments.

Moreover, in the brief recession in the early ‘00s, Boomers were ages 36-54. The younger Boomers were just coming into their own, looking to buy homes, advance their careers, etc.

Which brings us to today… on the verge of 2010… when Boomers will be ages 46-64 and focusing on one thing: RETIREMENT.

Having just lost 18% of their net worth, potentially lost their jobs, and with record amounts of debt (one in five of Boomers owe more than $50,000 in non-mortgage debt), Boomers are no longer looking for growth or gains, they’re looking for security. Dreams of retirement are no longer soon to be realized (if they will be realized at all). And several key myths have been broken:

Myth #1: You can’t lose money with real estate

Myth #2: Stocks ALWAYS offer the best gains in terms of risk/reward.

Myth #3: Social security and medicare will work

Indeed, if one were to describe the Boomer market demographic in one word, it’d be “disillusioned.” And you can see this disillusionment playing out in the financial markets.

First and foremost, many commentators make a big deal about the S&P 500 clearing 950… well that simply brings stocks back to where they were in July 1997. Boomers (who then were largely in their 40s then) have essentially seen NO GROWTH in their 401(k)s in 12 years. That’s simply astounding when you consider that 1997-2007 saw two of the largest investment bubbles in the history of mankind.

Boomers aren’t too happy about all of this and have begun looking for new sources of investment advice. According to the Financial Times, the number of inquiries on changing asset managers rose 40% during the first five months of 2009. Indeed, Charles Schwab reports 69% of the firm’s new clients said they jumped ship from full-service brokerage firms to independent advisor shops because they had lost trust in their previous firm.

Boomers are also giving up hopes for retirement and instead are taking on more work. The (American Association of Retirement Professionals) reports that 24% of Boomers have postponed retirement. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff  adds that the 55+ age demographic is the only segment of the US population that is gaining jobs.

Boomers are also spending a lot less than they used to. The afore-mentioned AARP survey shows that 56% of Boomers are postponing a major purchase. Unit sales of sailboats is down a third in the first five months of 2009. Year over year, auto-sales for May 2009 were down in double digits ranging from 21% (Ford) to 38% (Toyota); remember Boomers accounted for 43% of purchases of new cars in 2007.

This slow down in spending pertains to just about any other high-end part of the retail market. Wine sales for bottles priced above $25 are down 12% year over year. Swiss watches are down 24%, The list goes on and on.

Folks, we are experiencing seismic shifts in consumer spending patterns. The US consumer (the Boomer) is NOT coming back. Boomers are trying to simply get by with less, working longer than they’d hoped, spending less, and saving more. These patterns are here to stay (remember Boomers outspent younger generations by 2-to-1 during the last decade) until someone implements changes that create sustainable job growth (an ultimately wealth) in the US.

I’ll detail how these trends will impact the stock market going forward tomorrow. Until then...

Good Investing!

Graham Summers