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Grant Dossetto

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  • Citi values Instagram at $35B [View news story]
    Peak Facebook? At the same time Citi gives a late 1999esque valuation, Instagram has spent all week deleting tens of millions of users because they are fake accounts bought from click farms. This stuff isn't real and the values of the companies are close to zero because advertisers have little ability to actually reach customers.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Wheat [View article]
    For what it is worth, if you aren't out of wheat by now, I would suggest closing the trade. More downside risk here as deflation begins to rear it's head.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyber Monday sales slow on early discounts [View news story]
    Waning importance...or waning consumer?
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanksgiving weekend retail sales decline [View news story]
    I had family stuff to attend to Friday morning. Was out around 8:30 and at 11. There was nobody parked in any of the retail lots I went by at either time. Anyway you cut it, being open all of those extra hours and the staffing/utility costs that go with it will ramp costs for the retailers at a time when sales are falling. That's bad for the bottom line.
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICSC Retail Sales see spike as Black Friday nears [View news story]
    From 4.8% Y/Y growth in September to 1.7% barely 2 months later. Hard to imagine that doesn't entail a contraction in consumer sales, not just deceleration, over the past two months.
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 commits to grow economy; Russia isolated over Ukraine [View news story]
    Full Russian invasion of Ukraine in 3,2,1...
    Nov 16, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to like about Ford [View news story]
    Ford is a solid company and they are smart enough to produce at a level in which they can sell vehicles profitably. However, if we are at the end of an auto cycle, Chrysler and GM will sell their stuff at a loss on the way down. Hard to expect good margins for F under those conditions. GM is so awful it doesn't just destroy it's own value, the black hole destroys the value of the entire domestic industry every time it blows itself up.
    Nov 15, 2014. 03:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beazer Homes on track to hit targets [View news story]
    Sales down. Inventory up. Overall market weakening. Don't worry though, they'll keep their margins at 22%...
    Nov 12, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Snapchat close to deal at $10-$12B valuation [View news story]
    I'm short FB. Holding their feet to the fire too.
    Nov 9, 2014. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Snapchat close to deal at $10-$12B valuation [View news story]
    Anyone involved in purchasing Snapchat at $10B should be fired immediately.
    Nov 9, 2014. 12:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Great Entry Point For A Fast Growth Company [View article]
    They just came out and said to grow revenues by 40% they would have to increase expenses by 60%. That is lost margins caused by...a loss of pricing power in advertising. Guess I had some idea what I was talking about.
    Oct 28, 2014. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internet stocks fall AH thanks to Facebook [View news story]
    They didn't collapse because of Q4 guidance. They collapsed because they said they can't grow going forward without spending oodles of money. No one wants Amazon right now.
    Oct 28, 2014. 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil soars ahead of weekend election [View news story]
    The Communist will "win." By hook or crook if it comes to that.
    Oct 24, 2014. 11:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Great Entry Point For A Fast Growth Company [View article]
    "Social Media is the engine that drives the internet."

    Really? Investments don't work on slogans. Sorry. You may be right on FB, neither of us knows for sure, but nothing in your reply to me attempts in the slightest way to explain how ad revenues and profits continue to be weak for companies that depend on ad revenue of all stripes (CBS to Google) but not affect social media companies. In fact, there have been some arguments that social media is most vulnerable to an economic slowdown (once again, already here in Asia and Europe whose combined GDPs are twice that of the United States and where the above article is touting future FB revenues from).

    Oh, just a reminder that holiday sales forecasts were wildly optimistic last year with revenues growing less than expected and margins that were terrible (not that that has a ton to do with the types of companies that advertise on FB anyways but you don't want to seem to deal with the reality of what FB and other social media is and who could blame you when you have catchy slogans to use instead).
    Oct 19, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Great Entry Point For A Fast Growth Company [View article]
    Google's profits fell 5% YoY. That is their worst earnings performance ever in a bull market if the economy is going gangbusters as you presume. You even admit in your supposed take down of me that they have lost pricing power on their ads. That would seem to suggest that there is something wrong in ad spending, you don't lose pricing power in boom times, and it is backed up by several other mediums from networks to Discovery (different clienteles) to the New York Times and Gannett in print to Cumulus, et al. on the radio side.

    You drastically overvalue social media if you think that the gobs of money running from those companies is offset by the rise of FB and TWTR and Yelp. That means we have a shrinking ad market (normal for an international recession and a slowdown here, GDP did contract by 2% in the first quarter after all). Taking share in such a scenario won't stop revenue growth from slowing and it destroys profit margins. Ad spending is the first thing a business cuts. Even if it does not reduce the overall budget (and it will) a company in a slowdown will demand more for less. Advertising shifts from a seller's market to a buyer's market quickly in an economic cycle. Even assuming FB is doing things perfectly (a heroic assumption of any business), such conditions are ripe to hurt momentum names in the space of which FB definitely qualifies as.
    Oct 19, 2014. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment