EXAS: Testing Negative For Future Revenue
- CMS will reimburse EXAS 70-80% less for Cologuard than EXAS has told investors. This will leave EXAS with negative gross margins-- making Cologuard unsellable.
- EXAS' projected ~$500 reimbursement rate relies on CMS using a crosswalk analysis that calculates reimbursement based on cost of the components of the test.
- Instead, CMS will use a gap-fill process relying on cost-effectiveness data. Our model shows reimbursement of $100-$150/test, and CMS publications show that a test dominating Cologuard was cost-effective at $179-$247/test.
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