It will be difficult in the future to see a unique moment like this for the S&P 500 (SPX).

The unemployment rate is higher than 9%, and all are "happy" or minimize it with some data about jobless claims that could be misleading.

General Motors (GM): founded in 1908, bankrupted in 2009. Almost 100 years of american and industrial history has gone. What will be the effect on the market, especially on the S&P500 (SPX)? I think that this large index has already absorbed the GM decline during these months, and the short term effect will be small.

There are two scenarios: top breakout or double bottom.

The cycle is clear: this rally is approaching to an end. The next movement will probably be wide, and it could last one month, maybe two. As you can see in the picture, my custom oscillator (G2O) is clearly at the top of its range, or very near to it. G2O has clearly predicted all the previous tops from the beginning of this bear market. Key levels are 60 and 90: at one of these levels, market trend fades and begins to reverse.

Crisis or not, swine flu or not, earnings or stress test, it doesn't matter: from a cyclic point of view, we are at the top of a movement, and the S&P500 is aimed to turn down, sooner or later.

We are inside a major recession and Oil price is too high. It is known that during a recession, commodities are the first to go down, followed by stocks. And it is also known that the first trend inversion signals are given by commodities.

The break even price for oil, as reported by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, is about $30. Now the Brent price is about $50, which is 60% more than break even. Every day we hear that the oil stock is increasing, since the demand is weak, and there are a lot of probabilities that the demand will get weaker and weaker during next months, since recession is starting to bite even our real life (unemployment, consumer goods going down, steady revenues by corporations, etc.).

Are you sure that the results posted by corporates were good?

Let's try to examine the latest results that gave fuel to this rally.