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  • Odyssey Marine: An Open Letter To Ryan Morris Of Meson Capital [View article]
    donb68, thank you. Meson doesn't need Odyssey to file the Oceanica MIA. He needs them to give him opportunities to attack the company. He writes that the delayed MIA filing is a negative sign. I believe it's a positive sign. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong.

    Best of luck.
    Jul 27 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Thx Teklord. The inventory as of 6/5/14 covered 48 pages. It's difficult to estimate a value based on this document without knowing more about the items recovered, but we can get a rough feel by making a few estimates. Based on this, I think the $30-35mn figure used in the above article was accurate.

    I counted 3500 plus oz in gold ingot which should be over $14mn worth using the $4k/oz figure in the above article. There are over 850 double eagles, which adds another $5.7mn at $6,700/coin (they should get more than this - $8,800 per grey sheet value at ms64). There's another $2.5mn in gold nuggets (around 1k oz at 2x melt value). So, bars, nuggets, and double eagles equal approx $22mn.

    What's interesting to me is the potential value in the eagles, half eagles, and quarter eagles, as well as all of the other artifacts and "rare" on-off coins. The first SS CA salvage produced an average grade of ms64. If you use this as a benchmark and look up the value of the eagles, halfs and quarter eagles, you'll see that these coins may be worth quite a bit more than the double eagles. Of course there will be quite a lot of variance based on condition, year, mint mark, etc., but a representative quarter eagle last sold at $11,500, a half eagle sold at $14,000, and an eagle at $35,000. Also, the gold dollars are worth quite a bit depending on type. The type 1s and 2s can range from $1,000 to $130,000 at ms64 depending on date and mint. If we just take a stab at an average value for these coins of $12,000 per and we multiply that by the 580 coins of these varieties, we get an additional $7mn approximately.

    We could also add $1-2mn for the half dollars, dimes, and quarters, and misc. artifacts such as jewelry which would take us to a little over $30mn.

    There's much that we don't know, and this is all just guesswork. But it meshes pretty well with what the company has revealed about value, so I don't think it's too far off.

    The company has added to the inventory since this document was filed, but we don't know how much. Regardless, we do know that this has been a solid project for OMEX so far. If they spend $8mn and walk away with $18mn in proceeds, they've made an excellent return. This, however, is a low-end estimate.

    They've probably been moving coal and debris for the last few weeks to get into the real excavation. Hopefully we'll get another large salvage report when the OE returns mid-August.
    Jul 17 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration And The SS Central America [View instapost]
    Just to close the loop here.....today Judge Smith ruled in favor of RLP and made the Receiver the substitute custodian for the SS CA salvage. This removes any obstacles to a rapid monetization for OMEX (even if appealed). It also will most likely mean more disclosure from RLP about the progress of the recovery. Good news for OMEX and shareholders!
    Jul 9 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    One last comment regarding Oceanica. The group with which I work has spent countless hours on the phone and in person meeting with consultants, mining engineers, mining equipment suppliers, geologists, dredging companies, phosphate miners, analysts, competitors, and possible strategic partners. Based on the information we have gathered, we believe that Oceanica is an extremely large, high-quality deposit, offering solid economic returns. There are a lot of misconceptions about seabed phosphate mining, so it is understandable that someone who is less familiar with these operations would have doubts.
    Jul 9 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    I vowed not to comment on SA any further because I feel their rules are abusive. Nonetheless, I'm going to post another quick message here because of a development that relates to this article's topic.

    Apparently Judge Smith has just issued an Order ruling that RLP will serve as substitute custodian in the admiralty case for the SS CA. This is obviously a win for RLP and for OMEX. It also undermines yet another of the short theses around OMEX.

    It remains to be seen whether CADG can/will appeal the decision. They obviously have a very difficult case to argue, and they would need to post a large bond to launch the appeal. If they lost the appeal they might face financial repercussions.
    Assuming CADG cannot/does not appeal, this would likely mean greater disclosure from RLP/OMEX about the SS CA recovery. It will also mean more rapid monetization, regardless of whether or not CADG appeals. All in all, excellent news for OMEX.
    Regarding Meson's latest piece on Oceanica.....my guess is that Morris has heard how well Oceanica is doing in navigating the political and NGO gauntlet in Mexico via. investors who have seen Oceanica's recent roadshow. This is obviously making him nervous.
    Jul 9 06:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    All, I am no longer going to comment or publish on Seeking Alpha. I cannot comment on my own articles in real-time, so posting anything here is rather futile for me. Seeking Alpha has instituted policies which protect those who intentionally mislead investors and attempt to manipulate small stocks. I don't want to support that system any longer.

    In the future, look for my research on Motley Fool, Bloomberg, or Guru Focus.
    Jun 24 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    I can't take credit, Papa. I was tipped by someone as well.
    Jun 16 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Bill, I believe that omex cannot be included in the reconstituted index as it is based on market cap on the last trading day of May. The provisional lists published ahead of the 27th correct for share count, m&a closings, etc, but omex is well out of contention based on may close. As Papa noted, you probably have some lg brokers with short exposure until the 27th when the indexes hand over their stock. The index pressure is behind and fundamentals can drive the stock again.
    Jun 15 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Tincup, I like the low volume as well. My guess is that the move from 2.20 to 1.20 was driven mostly by long selling and index-driven shorting. Friday's low volume shows you that these sources have finished their selling.

    If you look at Papa's post above, it becomes even more interesting. Any short who is waiting for the index flush on the 27th, is going to be disappointed since the vast majority of that volume won't hit the market. As one manager at a very large hedge fund told me - volume matters more than price to anyone managing a short of decent size. I think that the only real volume that is going to come into this name over the next couple months is going to be on good news, so any large short is going to have to settle for covering at higher prices. Of course this is a long-biased perspective ;)
    Jun 15 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: SS Central America Legal Win Expected [View article]
    Yet another legal victory for RLP & OMEX this afternoon. Judge Smith ruled in favor of RLP and against CADG, appointing Odyssey's chosen custodian of NCS (Numismatic Conservation Services) to serve as substitute custodian for all of the artifacts salvaged from the SS CA.

    Since NCS is OMEX's vendor of choice, RLP and OMEX will probably be in close contact with the NCS (based in Sarasota, FL) experts as they categorize and evaluate all of the items. This will probably make it easier for the monetization to proceed when the time is right.

    The ruling is also significant in that it demonstrates again that CADG's efforts are not ready for prime-time. CADG opposed RLP's nomination of NCS, claiming that the artifacts should be kept within Judge Smith's district. CADG, however, failed to find a suitable custodian within the district after making this point. They then tried to get John Albanese of Certified Acceptance Corp. to act as a custodian and submitted a statement from Albanese indicating that he would act as custodian. Albanese refused to sign the statement, however, embarassing CADG once again. When CADG accused RLP of witness intimidation, the Judge immediately threw the case out of court in an oral ruling.

    Judge Smith has ruled repeatedly in favor of RLP in this matter, and my guess is that the trend will continue. She ruled in favor of OMEX continuing the salvage work for RLP. She has issued an order which leans heavily on the argument that CADG abandoned the SS CA salvage, having ceased operations on the wreck almost 25 years ago. She also issued the new admiralty arrest, naming RLP as salvor.

    We can't know how much time this will take to play out, but with CADG acting so desperately it may not be long. CADG can spend more money and lose, or they can go to RLP and try to cut a deal. CADG's negotiating leverage is deteriorating with each day that passes, as they lose credibility with the court. So, they are better off acting sooner rather than later. Regardless of what direction CADG chooses, RLP is in a good position.
    Jun 12 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Another legal victory for RLP & OMEX this afternoon. Judge Smith ruled in favor of RLP and against CADG, appointing Odyssey's chosen custodian of NCS (Numismatic Conservation Services) to serve as substitute custodian for all of the artifacts salvaged from the SS CA.

    Since NCS is OMEX's vendor of choice, RLP and OMEX will probably be in close contact with the NCS experts as they categorize and evaluate all of the items. This will probably make it easier for the monetization to proceed when the time is right.

    The ruling is also significant in that it demonstrates again that CADG's efforts are not ready for prime-time. CADG opposed RLP's nomination of NCS, claiming that the artifacts should be kept within Judge Smith's district. CADG, however, failed to find a suitable custodian within the district after making this point. They then tried to get John Albanese of Certified Acceptance Corp. to act as a custodian and submitted a statement from Albanese indicating that he would act as custodian. Albanese refused to sign the statement, however, embarassing CADG once again. When CADG accused RLP of witness intimidation, the Judge immediately threw the case out of court in an oral ruling.

    Judge Smith has ruled repeatedly in favor of RLP in this matter, and my guess is that the trend will continue. She ruled in favor of OMEX continuing the salvage work for RLP. She has issued an order which leans heavily on the argument that CADG abandoned the SS CA salvage, having ceased operations on the wreck almost 25 years ago. She also issued the new admiralty arrest, naming RLP as salvor.

    We can't know how much time this will take to play out, but with CADG acting so desperately it may not be long. CADG can spend more money and lose, or they can go to RLP and try to cut a deal. CADG's negotiating leverage is deteriorating with each day that passes, as they lose credibility with the court. So, they are better off acting sooner rather than later. Regardless of what direction CADG chooses, RLP is in a good position.
    Jun 12 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: SS Central America Legal Win Expected [View article]
    I don't think so, teklord.

    It was RLP who first sealed the inventory. They then requested that it be unsealed after CADG started some of their antics. CADG opposed that. I'm guessing RLP won't file unsealed until there's some sort of ruling from the judge.

    I won't be surprised if we see some sort of resolution sooner rather than later with respect to CADG. If you look at their filings, they often appear less-than-professional. Based on the judge's orders, she seems to be onto their games. Just yesterday they tried to bring this witness intimidation thing against RLP and it looks like the judge threw it out of court in an oral ruling right there at the hearing (she didn't even take time to consider it). CADG named a custodian for the artifacts but their custodian refused to sign the statement. Their first lawyer was found to have commit a fraud upon the court, their second lawyer is being challenged for a potential conflict of interest.

    With proceedings this lopsided, I'm guessing this will not drag on too long.
    Jun 11 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Agreed, Ship. It's easy to underestimate how difficult it is to do this work at 7,200 ft in depth. Outside of the equipment you mentioned, there would also be a lot of other debris in the pile. I met with Bob Evans a few weeks ago and he said it looks like a four story house had collapsed on itself. It's no wonder that TT was unable to go further in the recovery - he just didn't have the proper excavation tools at the time.

    It sounds like much of what Odyssey has found thus far was around the site, lying on the surface of the seafloor. The larger stash will be within the wreckage. We all know that gold is a very dense element so it's not going to rise to the top of the rubble. This is going to take some work. All the same, with Odyssey recovering gold every day, the numbers are going to build rapidly enough.

    Jun 11 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: SS Central America Legal Win Expected [View article]
    One more thought, gaspains. With any ruling from Judge Smith, uncertainty will be removed from OMEX's position, regardless of whether or not CADG appeals. CADG's case is so shaky to start with, if the judge rules against them it is going to take the odds to almost zero that they could be successful in an appeal.

    I think the removal of uncertainty means that OMEX could monetize more of the RLP receivable (beyond what the bank allows) in a deal with a strategic partner such as a numismatic dealer. The collateral would be better understood and valued at that point too, further de-risking the receivable. It would cost more than the original 5th 3rd line, but it would probably still be a fairly cost effective financing source.

    If they were due 40-50mn from RLP and the Bank allowed access to 10-15mn, then another financial partner might give them access to an additional 5-15mn of the total.
    Jun 9 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Just go to your SA inbox. I've left you a message there. Respond with your email address, and i'll forward you the info.
    Jun 8 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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