Greg Feirman

Long/short equity, medium-term horizon, registered investment advisor
Greg Feirman
Long/short equity, medium-term horizon, registered investment advisor
Contributor since: 2008
Company: Top Gun Financial
Wrong. You can make a lot of money serving a niche market.
Buying opportunity!
The difference is that BBRY's core business is in dramatic decline due to loss of market share to competitors. Revenues were down 40% in the 6 months ended 8/29/15. By contrast, GoPro's core business is in secular growth mode with revenues up more than 60% in the first half of the year. Were GoPro to start to see significant declines in revenue growth, I would take note.
$15 fair value is implausible to me. Like I said in the article, they have $3.50 in net cash/investments and no debt. So you would get the business for $11.50. They are expected to earn over $2/share in '16 so you would be putting a multiple below 6x on it. That for a company growing top and bottom lines at least 20%. The business would have to fall apart for $15 to become reasonable.
May have been overbought but certainly not anymore. Oversold! And shifting into strong hands.
A lot of people jump on the bandwagon when they see this kind of downside momentum.
I didn't know that. Would love to see it in the NFL and other sports.
Thanks for reading!
Garmin (GRMN) stock has been hit quite hard in the last year or so, down to $35ish from around $60. That's because their GPS business is declining for just the reason you mention: everybody uses their smartphones for GPS now and not their car's GPS system.
However, GRMN also has other divisions including a faster growing fitness segment that sells fitness watches that are a competitor of FitBit (FIT).
Check out the stock too!
GoPro owns the space for now.
My point is not that AMBA has any chance of trading to its IPO price but that more technical damage has been done to GPRO which increases the chances of a bottom/bounce.
I still think there are plenty of people who haven't bought a GoPro yet but will in the future.
Strong article. I would also mention the $2.5 bil in cash on the balance sheet. Back that out and the P/E is under 9.
Like both stocks, FB better than AAPL. Awesome growth.
I tend to agree with the "cheap oil is a gift" narrative as well.
Thanks for reading!
Nice overview. Agree with you on growth potential but valuation concerns at these levels.
Yes, I'm looking for a small dip. $7 would be fantastic.
I should say, however, that I am positioned the other way. That is, I am bullish on the market, including some of the momo names, for now.
Eloquent articulation of the bearish point of view.
Thanks for reading.
Nice overview.
How much of the improvement is priced in?
Company is forecasting EPS of 31 to 42 cents for this fiscal year. Almost a 20 multiple on the current stock price.
Would buy at the right price.
I added a starter position in DXJ again last week.
Thanks you!
Agree that if long term interest rates rise significantly, this bull market is toast. Not sure on the timing of that however. Think it also depends on perceived inflation.
That's an excellent point!
Only time will tell if the secular bear market is over IMO.
Good point. Those who bought in 2010, '11 or '12 are sitting on gains but more on the order of 50-70%.
I agree. A lot of complacency. Like we can't ever go down.
You could look at it that way. The 2011 correction/bear market was just barely 20% and only lasted a few months though.
Yes, the fear of missing out is a telltale signal. People aren't buying for fundamental but emotional reasons.