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Greg Feirman

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  • Buying Opportunity Or Full-Blown Bear Market? [View article]
    Good techncial overview. I agree that we are a point where there will be a binary outcome.

    Here is how I concluded my Client Note - "The Bailout Cycle" - yesterday - which I will post to SA soon:

    What all this means is that while investors are quite concerned, experience has taught them to count on the authorities to come to the rescue with another patchwork of bailouts that will keep Europe and the global economy afloat and sustain the bull market for at least a little while longer..... Some way, somehow, investors are hoping that something will be done to keep the party going. The fate of the markets in the next few months depends on if that hope is validated or disappointed.
    Jun 13 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Opportunity Or Full-Blown Bear Market? [View article]
    Yes, gold is interesting. Not sure if it wants to go up or down.

    I think gold will move along with the binary scenarios outlined by Chris in the piece.
    Jun 13 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tempur-Pedic Crash Offers Opportunity [View article]
    I agree that this is probably a good entry for TPX.

    Competitions is battering them right now but they still have a great brand and the stock has been hit so hard that all of this has probably been discounted and more.
    Jun 13 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Fiasco And The Pricking Of The Tech Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    LOL - so true.
    Jun 1 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Fiasco And The Pricking Of The Tech Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    Macrotrader100: George Soros: "When I see a bubble, I rush out and buy."

    You can make a lot of money buying on the greater fool theory when the demand is hot enough.

    You can also make a lot of money shorting this sort of irrationality when the time is right.
    May 31 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Fiasco And The Pricking Of The Tech Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    AgAuMoney and Macrotrader100: The greater fool theory of investing usually works in a "must have" IPO like Facebook and people have made a lot of money without doing their homework.

    Agbug: Perhaps you are right :-)

    And I can't fault Facebook for trusting their bankers and trying to get as much value as they could either.

    Andy Batts and Sunil Shah: "Many times in history such an IPO marked the end of a bull market!" (Andy Batts)

    "In the fullness of time Farcebook will be notes as the landmark when hype met reality" (Sunil Shah)

    Yes, my sentiments exactly.

    Sunil Shah and Network Bob: "Silicon Valley loves the blue sky, it thrives on the yonder, a la Hollywood and the next blockbuster." (Sunil Shah)

    Well said. Many stocks on Wall Street trade more as dreams than investments.
    May 30 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Fiasco And The Pricking Of The Tech Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    bcjcgoblue97: Thank you for your thoughts but I disagree with this.

    The IPO was a failure for Facebook as well. Remember that they only sold a sliver of the company (about 16%). Zuckerberg and the rest of Facebook's investors would have been much happier and better off pricing the IPO lower, selling less shares but getting a hot stock. When they went to sell more shares into the market in the future after lockups expire, they would get a better price and their overall return would be better.

    It is also a failure for JP Morgan because they have obligations to the institutional investors they sell shares too, not just Facebook. They need these customers in the future to move securities and as a result they want to leave a little money on the table so they can make money to and return the next time Morgan Stanley has something to sell. They also generate other business from these institutional investors.

    Overall, the IPO was a failure (or a fiasco!) all around.
    May 25 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Fiasco And The Pricking Of The Tech Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    Rich W: No doubt you're right. We all have to take responsibility for our actions.

    But I think everybody - including professionals - felt like this was one to be in on and that there would be a nice first day pop.

    In the end, everybdy has egg on their face: the underwriters, NASDAQ, retail investors and even Facebook itself.
    May 25 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Fiasco And The Pricking Of The Tech Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    remurraymd: I think you have to make a distinction between established, hardware based old tech plus Google. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Google, etc... all generate tremendous cash and are conservatively valued.

    But what is driving the frenzy and excitement of Silicon Valley are the new breed of internet companies that I wrote about in my note. Facebook is the vanguard and others include Twitter, FourSquare, DropBox, Evernote and now Pinterest. And these are clearly bubblish with $1 billion+ valuations and little revenue much less profits.

    The Facebook IPO itself and the frenzy and hype leading up to it are indicative of this in my opinion. While Facebook is actually a profitable company, the IPO was priced at 100 times earnings. They thought they could price it there and get a first day pop.
    May 25 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gut Check Time For The Bulls [View article]
    untrusting investor: Completely agree.

    The market is in big trouble though a little bounce here wouldn't surprise me.

    LIke you say, the question is when the Fed and ECB start to move again which will give the markets another ephemeral boost which only increases the unbalances that will ultimately have to be undone.
    May 18 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gut Check Time For The Bulls [View article]
    gotribe: Amazing how quickly we broke through that support. Since a lot of traders were aware of it, that is quite bearish IMO.

    Rich W: Agree that we will get an oversold bounce soon but do not think it is sustainable. I think this market is in trouble.
    May 17 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Quality Of Earnings This Season [View article]
    rickraff: I would like them more if the EPS expansion at least came from cost cutting rather than a lower tax rate and share count outstanding. Those have nothing to do with the actual operation of the business.

    untrusting investor: I believe any in the money options are counted in diluted shares outstanding. Therefore, IBM - and many other companies as well - seem to be buying back quite a bit of shares net. This is a good thing but it does mean you sometimes need to dig beneath EPS to get at the operation of the underlying business.

    larocag: Fair enough. Certainly this kind of analysis is anectdotal rather than systematic. In recent Client Notes, I analyzed FedEx, Nike, IBM and Apple. Clearly if these are exceptions than no general conclusions can be drawn. I do look at many other reports that I don't necesarily write about.

    In addition, in other notes I analyze technicals, macro, etc... in order to patch together a mosaic that comprises my market view.
    May 8 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Likely Bear Market Of 2012 [View article]
    300-500 is essentially another Great Depression.

    I think the 2012 low will be between 800-1000.

    It may be worse in Europe and emerging markets.
    Nov 23 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Road Map Into The Year End [View article]
    sam_sawyer: You are Tom's brother? ;)

    untrusting: You're right. I didn't do a good job in the piece of highlighting the upcoming Super Committee deadline as an investment risk.
    Nov 11 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Oversold To Overbought In Two Weeks [View article]
    I, too, am looking for a better entry. Both CSCO and HPQ have had big pops from where I initially bought.

    User 353732: All this volatility is nuts. I agree to some extent that it is an inside game played by hedge funds, Wall Street trading desks and other big money.
    Oct 18 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment