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Greg Feirman

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  • Several Theories To Explain Apple's Nosedive [View article]
    It's hard to push around a stock with a market cap more than half a trillion.

    The market is mass psychology. AAPL was going up so people piled on. Now it's going down so they bail and short it. It's not a satisfying explanation but in a lot of ways it's that simple.
    Jan 30 10:26 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Charts Bears Do Not Want To See [View article]
    I am a fan of yours Chris but I think this is the risk of relying purely on technical analysis. Underlying fundamentals, macro do not look good.

    Beneath the surface, even the technicals are shaky. Defensive, mega cap stocks are leading the rally off the June lows. Risk on stocks are lagging. Volume has completely dried up the last two weeks.

    What did your technical indicators say in October 2007 out of curiousity?

    I am respectfully bearish :-)
    Aug 15 07:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Theories To Explain Apple's Nosedive [View article]
    Massive bounce in AAPL coming IMO. Horrible sentiment completely out of proportion to fundamentals.
    Jan 30 10:18 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The Second Great Gold Rally [View article]
    Well written article Scott but I agree with pdtor. Do you think we have gone from an easy to tight money conditions that in the past has correlated with bear markets for gold? I don't see that argument in your article. In an article I just wrote on gold - which will hopefully be up shortly - I argue that the easy money conditions are more extreme than ever which suggests this is just a correction in an ongoing secular bull market for gold.
    Apr 14 10:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Theories To Explain Apple's Nosedive [View article]
    I bought on Thu, Fri and Tue. A lot.
    Jan 30 10:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Growth At A Reasonable Price [View article]
    Second this comment from michiganjake.

    The negativity on $AAPL is astounding. From the most loved to the most hated stock in the market.

    How can you not back up the truck if you pay attention to fundamentals/valuation?
    Apr 1 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Markets Don't Last Forever [View article]
    I think most people would say this bull market began in March '09.

    I also think you need high beta momentum stocks to lead during the strong phase of a bull market rather than more mature sectors.
    Nov 11 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Shadow Invest In Dell [View article]
    Well done Jon!

    I have done the same analysis as you and come to the same conclusion. Also a big fan of Southeastern Asset Management. This is a game changer IMO and the stock is not yet showing it - though it has perked up a little bit.
    Feb 12 11:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Theories To Explain Apple's Nosedive [View article]
    "But now on any normal valuation measure, Apple's stock is about the most undervalued stock relative to cash, and earnings, in the market."


    Also thought Carter Worth's Fast Money segment - long AAPL, short SPY - was good.
    Jan 30 10:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    Excellent article Alan. Clearly analysts taking down earnings estimates played a big role in AAPL's correction the last few months. It seems like the market is reflecting the idea that the days of big growth are in the rearview mirror. Still, valuation strikes me as an overshoot to the downside.
    Jan 24 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Gets Aggressive: Willing To Risk Some Inflation [View article]
    Interesting Macrotrader100. Very contrarian and brave. You could be right.

    There was a runup into and sell the news reaction to QE2 in November 2010. In that case, the policy was about what expected compared to today's being more than expected. Perhaps we are close to at least a short term correction to shake out latecomers.
    Sep 13 08:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Gets Aggressive: Willing To Risk Some Inflation [View article]
    Good stuff James!

    From a fundamental, long term investment standpoint, this market is a clear SELL. I do a lot of fundamental research in addition to macro and technical stuff and the market is definitely on the expensive side IMO. Plus, earnings growth is stalling out and it is not early in the cycle.

    However, from a trading standpoint I am not sure how to play it. Did the Fed potentially ignite some sort of a stock market bubble today? If so, that can be traded profitably as long as one understands what one is doing.

    On the the other hand, this has caused so many bears to capitulate and sentiment seems quite bullish. Could we get a sell the news reaction soon similar to what happened with QE2 in November 2010?
    Sep 13 08:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How David Einhorn Shorts Stocks [View article]
    I am a fan of David Einhorn but his reputation is overinflated at this point. He's essentially the next Warren Buffett in the eyes of the investing public. Any small mention of a stock by him creates an exaggerated move.

    I would like to see a complete and objective analysis of his big investment positions/calls in the last few years. There are a number of them that he has flat out gotten wrong. He was buying Spring (S) in the 4Q 2010. Bad investment. He was buying Best Buy (BBY) in the 1Q 2011. -50% since then. He was buying Marvell (MRVL) in the 3Q 2011. -30%.

    It's not clear to me that his recent takedown of Green Mountain is fundamentally sound. The aspect of his Sept '11 Ira Sohn Presentation that really spooked the market was his questioning of their accounting. After his similar attacks on Allied and Lehman, this scared the market. But his case about variations in quarterly revenues was entirely circumstantial. It was by no means the proof the market has taken it to be. Certainly he has made a lot of money and everybody will say he was right, but I think there is more to this story than at first appears.

    We also shouldn't forget that he was a big investor to the extent of being on the board of New Century Financial, the failed Orange County subprime lender, before resigning in early 2007. That was a major misstep.

    One excellent investment he has made in recent years is Apple (AAPL) which he started buying in the 2Q 2010 and has more than doubled since then. A look at Greenlight's most recent 13F shows that at almost $800 million, AAPL is his biggest long equity position.

    Clearly, he has made other good investments since his overall returns are as follows (from his Partners Letters):

    2008: -22.7%
    2009: +36.9%
    2010: +15.9%
    2011: +2.9%
    2012 1Q: +6.8%

    Since the beginning of 2008, his main fund is up 34.9% compared to -4.1% for the S&P.

    Since inception in May 1996, his main fund has returned 20% annualized. The S&P was at about 650 when he started for a 5% annualized return through 1Q 2012.

    But I would like to see less hero worship and more objectivity towards David's overall track record.
    Jul 13 01:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter 2012: The Beginning Of An Earnings Collapse [View article]
    Yes, this is not a radical call though it is quite divergent from the consensus expectations priced into the market. If it happens, it will result in a nasty correction or even a run of the mill bear market, though not a disaster. I am sure it will happen but it is a question of timing.

    Why don't you think things will be even worse?
    Jul 3 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Writer Scorned: Buffett Biographer Can't Let Sokol Issue Pass [View article]
    This is a really interesting subject.

    As you say, clearly there has been a falling out between Schroeder and Buffett. She takes every opportunity now to blast him.

    Odd for the one person who was granted such wide access to write Buffet's biography and who pocketed milions of dollars in book fees as a result.

    You would think she would be more grateful. But she seems surprised and bitter about his reaction to her unflattering revelations about his personal life.
    Apr 1 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment