David Dierking is an analyst and writer focusing primarily on ETFs, mutual funds, dividend income strategies and retirement planning. He is a current contributor for Seeking Alpha, ETF Daily News, MutualFunds.com and ETFdb.com. He was also included in the panel for ETFReference.com’s “101 ETF Investing Tips from the Experts”.
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Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and pharmaceutical inventor and entrepreneur, however focus now is global and involves almost all economic categories.
The writer is a long term value investor and M.Sc graduate in Financial Markets with over 10 years experience. Value can be found in both long and short ideas and uses options to enhance the risk-return profile of investment ideas.
Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice.
Mark Minervini traded his first stock in 1983. He invested in a few hundred shares of Allis Chalmer, a seller of tractors and forklifts. Soon after, Minervini became familiar with the work of Richard Love, author of the book Superpeformance Stocks: An Investment Strategy for the Individual Investor Based on the 4-Year Political Cycle. Love’s work had a profound influence on Minervini’s professional and philosophical views on investing and the formulation of his own investment strategy.
By his early thirties, Minervini was at the helm as President of a leading institutional research firm in New York City, advising hedge funds and institutional investors in the U.S., Canada and Latin America. During this period, Minervini also kept a demanding schedule of regular television appearances on CNBC, CNN and Fox News.
It was Minervini’s initial intention to simply support himself from his trading profits, but his well-timed investment decisions increased his wealth dramatically each year, as well as the popularity of his opinion. After a decade of studying and trading the U.S. stock market, Minervini founded Quantech Research Group, Inc., an institutional research firm, in 1993. Minervini made available for a fee, to institutional investors, his in-house research based on his methodology Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA®. Clients paid as much as $10,000 per month for Minervini's stock recommendations; his clients list included some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
To demonstrate the capabilities of his SEPA® Technology, Minervini entered the 1997 U.S. Investing Championship with his own capital. He won the real-money investment derby with a 155% return for the year, nearly double the results of the next nearest competing money manager. In fact, Jack Schwager wrote in Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America’s Top Stock Traders: for the period 1994-2000, “Minervini's performance has been nothing short of astounding. His average annual compounded return during the period has been a towering 220 percent. Most traders and money managers would be delighted to have Minervini’s worst year – a 128 percent gain – as their best.”
In 1998, Minervini publicly voiced two back-to-back market calls, which shortly after propelled him into the media spotlight. On the August 28, 1998 Cavuto Business Show – Fox News Network, Minervini discussed the statistical similarities between the market then and the market on the Friday before the "Black Monday" crash of 1987, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 508 points in a single day. The Monday following Minervini’s appearance (the very next trading day), the Dow Jones Industrials fell 512 points. One month later, Minervini turned bullish. In a September 28, 1998 profile titled “Trust the Computer,” Barron’s wrote: “Minervini was still bearish on the market until last week, when he did an about-face and turned raging bull.”
He recommended, among other stocks, Yahoo, Broadcom, Network Appliances and Abercrombie & Fitch, all of which went on to score spectacular gains as the stock market entered a new bull phase. Twenty months later, Minervini turned decidedly bearish. On May 30, 2000 on CNN, Minervini said that the NASDAQ had entered a bear market and that the bear market would continue. He explained: “Oracle, EMC, Cisco, Nokia – some of these favorite big-cap NASDAQ stocks that have been holding up quite well – they’re going to give way now, and that’s really going to unsettle investors.” Minervini previously had called for a steep decline in the Internet/dot.com sector on the same network on March 30, 2000.
During the March 30 CNN interview, Minervini said: “Many of these (Internet) stocks are going to go down between fifty and as much as eighty percent and some will go the way of Dr. Koop (bankruptcy).” Twenty-eight months later the NASDAQ Composite Index was down sixty-five percent, while Oracle, EMC, Cisco and Nokia were down an average of eighty-three percent. Minervini had avoided one of the most devastating bear market declines in stock market history. He protected his personal portfolio and locked in his gains by going to cash before the decline hit. With the exception of a few well-timed short trades, Minervini sat idle in cash through what was nearly a three-year bear market before returning to the stock market on the long side.
Minervini’s achievements led to his recognition in Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders, by best-selling author Jack Schwager. A chapter in the book is devoted to Mr. Minervini and highlights his investment philosophy and money management approach. Schwager noted that Minervini's exceptional returns tell "only half the story." Mr. Schwager wrote: "Amazingly, Minervini achieved his lofty gains while keeping his risk very low: He had only one down quarter – barely – a loss of a fraction of 1 percent.”
Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.
Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)
Editor for The Biotech Forum (www.biotechforumsa.com), the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade. For Free weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at www.bretjenseninvests.com
M. Kevin Flynn has held the Chartered Financial Analyst designation since 1992. He is the President of Avalon Asset Management Company, a Registered Investment Adviser, and has worked in the investment industry since 1983.
Avalon's MarketWeek, a weekly newsletter written by Mr. Flynn and covering the stock market, economy and individual stocks has been published continuously since April 2007. For subscription information please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org
Sy Harding founded Asset Management Research Corporation in 1988 for the purpose of providing stock market and economic research to institutions and serious investors. Harding’s engineering background, coupled with his experience in operating high-tech businesses through numerous economic cycles, made it natural that the research involves technical analysis and charting, as well as analysis of the economic fundamentals that affect markets and individual stocks.
The firm publishes its research on its website at www.StreetSmartReport.com.
Harding is frequently ranked highly in the ‘Top Ten Market Timers in the U.S.’, and is quoted frequently in the financial media.
He wrote the timely 1999 book Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market, which accurately predicted the 2000-2002 bear market. It also introduced Sy’s remarkable Seasonal Timing Strategy, which more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the nine years since, without a single down year even in the serious 2000-2002 bear market.
He has a new book out ‘How to Beat the Market the Easy Way’, which reveals several new seasonal timing strategies, from short-term to long-term, which have a history of out-performing the market, while exposing investors to less than 50% of market risk.
Joseph has been an analyst, investor, and student of economic theory; money and banking; and statistical methods for evaluating and implementing risk/reward trading algorithms since 1972. Joseph is also an occasional contributor to financial publications and his essays are frequently cited by other financial websites and publications.
Since the end of the Great Recession, Joseph came to recognize that traditional methodologies for forecasting economic growth and investment asset pricing are no longer of value, and a broader understanding of the post Glass Steagall, financially engineered world that has driven markets and economies since the turn of the century is required today.
He has a good grasp of Shadow Banking, High Frequency Trading, and Dark Pools, and their impact on today’s markets. He has also spent considerable time understanding the new global paradigm of central bank involvement in experimental policy designed to better control economies.
Joseph doesn’t subscribe to a specific school of theory on economics. Rather, his thinking is based on a combination of the Classical School, the Austrian School, and the Keynesian School. He even sees the writings of Karl Marx as particularly instructive.
Joseph is particularly fond of the following quote from Albert Einstein and sees his own work as driven by that same passionate curiosity that Einstein refers to:
“I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious.”
Coming in a close second in terms of favorite quotes that express his views, Joseph embraces Lord Acton’s views expressed here:
“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern.
Every class is unfit to govern."
Follow Kerry Balenthiran ( @17_6YrStockCyc ) on Twitter.
Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.
Kerry Balenthiran's first book "The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle, Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007" is out on 25th February 2013.
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
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We strive to build highly disciplined, sensible client portfolios. Portfolios that are focused on investing in businesses with solid free cash flows and solid dividend payouts. We buy businesses, not stocks.
Tim is a Registered Investment Advisor.
I am the VP of Monetization at Harvest (www.hvst.com). My role here is to ensure that Harvest is maximizing its monetization opportunities while maintaining the highest level of experience for our users, and advertisers.
I'm an individual investor heavily influenced by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
Munger's 1994 USC Business School Speech is something I think about a lot:
Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result.
Another very simple effect I very seldom see discussed either by investment managers or anybody else is the effect of taxes. If you're going to buy something which compounds for 30 years at 15% per annum and you pay one 35% tax at the very end, the way that works out is that after taxes, you keep 13.3% per annum.
In contrast, if you bought the same investment, but had to pay taxes every year of 35% out of the 15% that you earned, then your return would be 15% minus 35% of 15%—or only 9.75% per year compounded. So the difference there is over 3.5%. And what 3.5% does to the numbers over long holding periods like 30 years is truly eye-opening. If you sit back for long, long stretches in great companies, you can get a huge edge from nothing but the way that income taxes work.
Feel free to follow me on Google Plus: https://plus.google.com/115463998897129479026/posts
Keith Springer is the author of "Surfing the Retirement Tsunami -Your guide to staying afloat and retiring comfortably" and "Facing Goliath: How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead", radio host of "Smart Money with Keith Springer" on NewsRadio 1530 KFBK. Keith can also be seen on CNBC, FOX Business, the Wall Street Journal, Fortune, CNN Money and other news outlets. Keith is also President and Founder of Springer Financial Advisors in Sacramento, CA, an SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm specializing in investment and retirement planning and has been providing professional wealth management advice for over 30 years. All content is original material, solely owned and paid for by Springer Financial Advisors. Keith can be reached at 916-925-8900 or Keith@KeithSpringer.com.
I founded Seeking Alpha, and lead it for its first 10 years until I passed the CEO role to Eli Hoffmann. I started Seeking Alpha after working for five years as a technology research analyst for Morgan Stanley in New York. Seeking Alpha is now the dominant crowdsourced equity research platform.
I wrote the ETF Investment Guide (http://seekingalpha.com/article/15136-etf-investing-guide-one-page-summary-of-the-entire-guide), and I blog about startup best practices at http://davidjaxon.wordpress.com .
I have a B.A from Oxford University and an MSc from The London School of Economics, and am married with five children.
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
You can receive custom delivery of all of Mr. Kostohryz's published work on Seeking Alpha, The Street, and other media, as well as exclusive material, by following the link below. It is absolutely free:
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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets?
Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities.
Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center.
His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.
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Greg Feirman is the Founder & CEO of Top Gun Financial (www.topgunfp.com), a hedge fund like Registered Investment Advisor now based in the Bay Area, CA.