Seeking Alpha

Greg Ho

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Greg Ho's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Just One ETF: Macro Factors Show a Lot of Room to Run for Silver [View article]
    Sizing investments depends on investment objectives, tolerance for risk, duration of portfolio, other investments in your portfolio, and other factors - so I can't make a generic recommendation on this front. But for my personal long-term portfolio in which I'm trying to make 12-15% over the long term with reasonable volatility, I'm carrying about a 5% investment in SLV with the rationale that my downside is a max of about 40% (silver goes back to high teens before I get out; though unlikely that I'll let it get that far) causing me to lose 2% in my portfolio; and if the world runs into some problems (from the Mideast, global currency debasement, etc.), my upside might be a double, causing a 5% gain to my portfolio. In short, even though I like SLV in this environment, I don't believe in the "silver bullet" approach to investing and maintain a fair amount of diversification in my portfolio.
    Feb 23 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Macro Factors Show a Lot of Room to Run for Silver [View article]
    Depends - if it wanders up to 40-ish without anything significant happening, I might sell some; on the other hand, if one of the larger themes plays out (e.g., Chinese monetization of silver), I'll likely hold for a double, at least. But remember, this is based on my own investment objectives and tolerance for risk, as well as the other positions in my portfolio; and this might not be applicable to you.
    Feb 20 08:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Macro Factors Show a Lot of Room to Run for Silver [View article]
    I constantly monitor and re-evaluate the positions I invest in, rather than rely on fixed triggers. Also, my tolerance for downside movements varies according to, among other things, the size of my postion, the volatility of the investment, the upside potential, and my investment objectives. If I continue to think that my macro call is correct, I might be a buyer and add to my position if SLV retreats 10%, and a holder of the position even if it goes down another 10% from there. On the other hand, if SLV was a large position in my portfolio and other things in my portfolio were not negatively correlated to SLV, I might decide to trim a little at 20-25% down.
    Feb 20 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Macro Factors Show a Lot of Room to Run for Silver [View article]
    Equities generally give you a leveraged exposure to the underlying commodity. When you look at the GLD/GDX relationship, they are very correlated and GDX gives you about a 1.5x beta against GLD. But that's up or down - simplistically, if GLD goes up 10%, GDX will go up 15%; and if GLD goes down 10%, GDX will go down 15%. This relationship does not necessarily get reflected immediately (e.g., sometimes there's a dislocation caused by a mining company hedging out future production so that it does not get the benefit of a run up in its commodity), so your leveraged exposure may have some timing differences. The big issue for me, however, is the higher volatility in GDX and individual stock positions. I talk about GLD/GDX because it has a longer history than SLV/SIL; but I think the relationship will be similar.
    Also, in individual stock situations, I need to depend on other facts to hold true (a big one being capable management) in order for my thesis to play out. Since I think the return on SLV will be quite nice if my macro views are correct, I'm investing in the pure play for now. But that doesn't mean I won't be looking at SLW, GDXJ, etc., as you need to keep thinking all the time!
    Feb 20 08:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4 Comments
10 Likes