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Greg Merrill  

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  • Annaly Capital Seen Holding Levels [View article]
    Fannie and Freddie bought out non paying mortgages out of the pools which speed up payment rates. NLY lowered their dividend and people freaked out.
    Storm passed . .. stock went back up again.
    Jul 9, 2010. 06:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    Well thats the trick for them now eh? IMO the Fed needs to let the air out of the balloon (high asset prices on a foundation of too much debt) slowly.

    There's problems with that.
    -- Fed thinks they need to 'reinflate'
    -- The fear of any sort of defelation
    -- Politics -- We can take a little pain now or a lot more pain later. Politicians are very good at handing us candy while telling us we don't need to pay for it.
    -- Deflating the ballon slowly would be very tricky even if the Fed realized thats what they should do.

    I could go on but the rhino is charging and I need to run away and hope you are slower than me.
    Jun 24, 2010. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    I'm not implying they should raise rates NOW.
    Jun 24, 2010. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    Actually a lot of those situations are showing up in the decline of lending activity.
    I'm missing your point.

    If you read any of my other articles you'll notice I'm not a cheerleader. Most of my recent calls have been bearish and my only bullish call has been a stock designed to do well in a post credit bubble deleveraging cycle.
    Jun 24, 2010. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    I agree with your contention that indicators work until they break :) For now at least we are still smarter than the machines . . ..
    Jun 24, 2010. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    Then I stand corrected.
    Jun 23, 2010. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    By definition short term rates are manipulated by the Federal Reserve.
    I have had a beef about this for a long time, but that's for another very long article.
    Jun 23, 2010. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    Well, lets look at the last time short rates were very low, 1930 onwards. From Shillers data one year rates got down to 0.56 percent in 1939 from 6.01 in 1929. What is interesting as compared to today is it was 1935 until the 1 year breached 1 percent. It took a while for short term rates to really drop.
    Jun 23, 2010. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Steep Yield Curve Leading Us Astray? [View article]
    I think all the above are good questions which tie into my article's (unmentioned) main point. The rule of thumb that a steep yield curve thus means future economic growth is broken. I brought up the lack of lending. You are mentioning sovereign risk which really wasn't on people's radar screens until very recently.
    Jun 23, 2010. 02:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ugly Chart of the Day: Lumber As Housing Proxy [View article]
    The problem is in order to create a private market for MBS (as in a private company selling them) the spreads for mortgages would have to go higher which would be very politically incorrect. The government is stuck and pain will occur to fix the problem.
    Jun 23, 2010. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ugly Chart of the Day: Lumber As Housing Proxy [View article]
    Yeah. I'm just wondering how low can lumber go? Right now it's straight down.... While there are some people who can pick and choose when to sell their timber the major publicly traded companies are more restricted in their timing.
    Jun 23, 2010. 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ugly Chart of the Day: Lumber As Housing Proxy [View article]
    Lumber got up to 320 because of a supply problem, not a demand issue. Very wet weather this winter hampered the spring cuttings and everyone was running with low inventories. A bit of demand from the tax credit and POP up it goes!.

    merrillovermatter.blog...
    Jun 23, 2010. 01:52 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As I've Said Before, U.S. Housing Still Has a Way to Fall [View article]
    As always good stuff.
    Lumber prices are getting smacked as well. Hard.
    merrillovermatter.blog...

    Lumber prices have been going straight down since their peak in mid April.
    Jun 22, 2010. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Buy Stocks in MLPs [View article]
    I think you are seeing the premium some investors place on 'yield' without doing their homework.
    Jun 16, 2010. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Buy Stocks in MLPs [View article]
    Thanks for the tip about EEP. I have been looking for another synthetic pipeline/MLP company.
    Jun 16, 2010. 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
84 Comments
115 Likes