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Greg Merrill

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  • High Lumber Prices Due to Temporary Supply Problems, Not Demand [View article]
    I don't think there is an ETN that follows the lumber futures but you can use PCL as a proxy. There are two lumber etf's, WOOD and CUT but when I examined them a while ago I didn't like the index construction.
    Mar 5 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    Just purchased BOS @ 22.71. We are close to the 61.8 fib retracement for both JJC and BOS.
    Feb 16 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    I agree the Chinese are buying, but they are not buying _enough_ Even with the massive purchase programs by China copper inventories keep rising week after week.

    For the week ended 02/12/2010 copper inventories across all three major exchanges rose again to 759,000+ tons, up over 9,000 tons for the week. We have not seen a weekly decline since 10/08/2009.

    If the world's larget stimulus program in history cannot absorb all the copper being produced right now what can?
    Feb 15 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Individual Bonds vs. Bond ETFs: Two Completely Different Animals [View article]
    Fortunately there is an ETF hybrid that has just been introduced. Ishares has started an 'end date etf' series. Etf's that hold bonds that mature at a specified date!

    merrillovermatter.blog...

    Unfortunately there is still a premium to NAV on this series of end date etfs but once the premium ends I'm going to be buying some.
    Feb 12 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Lumber Prices Due to Temporary Supply Problems, Not Demand [View article]
    I'm curious how to reconcile that with the lumber future prices. Is the transportation cost too high?

    I drive past a lumber mill every morning on my way to work in the Pacific Northwest and it struck me how much inventory is sitting outside.
    Feb 10 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Lumber Prices Due to Temporary Supply Problems, Not Demand [View article]
    Thanks for the confirmation Chris.
    Feb 10 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Lumber Prices Due to Temporary Supply Problems, Not Demand [View article]
    Good point. Upon reflection my 'insulting' comment was a bit harsh and I think the presenter was sexing up his research. I would be a horrible interview on CNBC. Most of my responses would be 'dunno, dunno, dunno, sorry I'm not telling you, that, well I'm scared shitless of that'

    :)
    Feb 10 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    Damn the overdose of caffeine. I SHORTED some EWA today.
    Feb 5 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    One edit: The symbol JCC is incorrect, it should be JJC (A copper ETN)
    Feb 5 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    Just sorted a small bit of EWA (less than 10% of what I want in total) Knowing me this is likely the short term low for the stock (I'm not a good short term trader) but I wanted to get some trades on the board and build it slowly.
    Feb 5 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    Word.

    Kentpaul, have you seen a copy of his powerpoint slide presentation? I watched that video a few days ago but would really like to see the slides.
    Feb 4 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    While a few of you have given this comment negative 'thumbs down' votes his post does make me realize I did not provide as much supporting material for the 'Australia is toast' comment.

    Here ya go:
    globaleconomicanalysis...
    Australia homes are very expensive on a relative basis.

    www.debtdeflation.com/.../
    Australian consumer debt loads are very high.

    I strongly suggest one reads both blogs.

    Australia will survive any commodity price crash but their stock, bonds, and currency will most likely take a severe beating.
    Feb 4 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 90 Days Until Copper's Fate Is Decided [View article]
    Yes I wil try to remember to comment here when I buy / short stuff.

    I put in a lowball limit GTC order on BOS today. BOS is very thinly traded (except for some recent 1million and 500k trades) so I would NOT suggest using a market order on that security. Go to the db funds web site and see what the indicative value is on the security before buying it.

    I'm hoping for a bounce in copper and the markets in general as I have not initiated any trades based upon a weak copper forecast. It would be rather embarrasing to make the correct call and not make any money on it! :(
    Feb 4 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Annaly's Remarkable Run Done? [View article]
    Glad to know I'm not the only crazy one in the desert, alone, seeing deflation

    :)
    Feb 3 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Annaly's Remarkable Run Done? [View article]
    How can you make any judgement on NLY without discussing their relatively low leverage ratio (as compared to past leverage ratios of the company) , how they are selling pretty close to book value, or an expectation of when / if short term interest rates will start to move higher?

    I own the stock, a lot of the stock. Why? Because it is a well run mtg REIT and my studies cause me to conclude short term interest rates will be very low for a very long time.

    Higher mortgage rates would actually be a long term benefit for NLY. They have kept their leverage ratio low for the very reasons you have proposed why the stock price should go down. If / when mortgage spreads widen as compared to treasuries they can purchase more and actually earn a higher spread!
    Feb 3 01:17 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
84 Comments
115 Likes