Base Metals Correction: Start of a Crash or a Bear Trap? [View article]
I agree this is most likely a bear trap, but I think it's the _last_ bear trap. Copper seasonally has a strong 1st quarter as companies make purchases for the year. I didn't put on any copper related shorts but if we get a rally I'm going to start shorting it on the way up this time (unless copper inventories suddenly stop growing)
Copper Demand: Not as Weak as You Think [View article]
I think your opinion regarding a rebound in housing construction in the United States is too optimistic. Considering home foreclosure and delinquency rates are still rising the demand for new homes is not going to leap upwards. The US consumer is still reducing his leverage, not increasing it.
Right now copper inventories are rising at more than 1,000 tons / a DAY in total at the LME, Shanghai and Comex.
Right now the Spence mine run by BHP is striking and there is talk of a strike at another large mine in South America. Considering the miners are hauling in money hand over fist at $3.00 (I agree with your cost basis estimates) they will eventually agree with the workers and get back to mining.
The point I'm trying to clarify is IF demand does not come roaring back in the emerging markets, enough to completely compensate for the tepid demand in the developed world, the current oversupply will become huge and prices will crash. This is not an easy trade.
I'm currently neither long nor short any copper related positions, but I'm eyeing a short position if all the possible mine strikes are resolved and the pricing momentum goes neutral.
Base Metals Correction: Start of a Crash or a Bear Trap? [View article]
merrillovermatter.blog...
Unless copper inventories start disappearing the price is gonna fall.
Base Metals Correction: Start of a Crash or a Bear Trap? [View article]
Retail Sales in December: Good or Less Bad? [View article]
:)
2010: A Bad Year to Invest in Base Metals [View article]
Trying to buy some BOS today. Damn spreads are huge.
Did China Buy Too Much Copper? [View article]
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
I think bloomberg agrees with the article. They are exporting more copper.
What Are Commercial Traders Telling Us About the Price of Copper? [View article]
merrillovermatter.blog...
Good information, thanks Kentpaul!
Dr. Copper Spots a Monster Crash [View article]
Copper inventories are rising at all 3 major warehouses (LME, COMEX, and Shanghai) and the Chinese are now exporting copper.
Copper inventories keep rising with no sign of deceleration. The world recovery better happen soon or copper prices are toast.
Copper Demand: Not as Weak as You Think [View article]
Right now copper inventories are rising at more than 1,000 tons / a DAY in total at the LME, Shanghai and Comex.
Right now the Spence mine run by BHP is striking and there is talk of a strike at another large mine in South America. Considering the miners are hauling in money hand over fist at $3.00 (I agree with your cost basis estimates) they will eventually agree with the workers and get back to mining.
The point I'm trying to clarify is IF demand does not come roaring back in the emerging markets, enough to completely compensate for the tepid demand in the developed world, the current oversupply will become huge and prices will crash. This is not an easy trade.
I'm currently neither long nor short any copper related positions, but I'm eyeing a short position if all the possible mine strikes are resolved and the pricing momentum goes neutral.
Copper Demand: Not as Weak as You Think [View article]