Greg Pinelli

Peak Oil, Cars, and Depressions

Trying to gleam a coherent view from this rambling and overly bloated article isn't easy..but certainly on throwaya sentence on nat gas deserves some comment. Nat gas is "dead money." ?? Why?..Who besides you says so? A couple of salient points concerning nat gas..
1. Nat gas is still a very local/regional commodity..the fuels we use are politically driven and gas is the chosen child of the new administration. What will substitute for coal as it is politically hammered if not natural gas? Solar and wind are niche markets..and the infrastructure to switch to those is in its infancy.
2. Nat gas supply will be politically pounded by environmentalists...th... latest is the damage natgas drilling does to aquifers in the US.
As for oil..it WILL become much more difficult to get and the importance the author places on spare capacity excesses moving the market is unfounded. First, we've had virtually NO spare capacity for 2 years! We've been stuck at 87 mBd for a reason. The IEA report..though steering clear of peak oil..cites 7-8% field "depletion." Do the math..2-3% demand destruction..7-8% "depletion" and very expensive new oil..I thing oil is at $100 by Summer 2009.....and inflation at well over 10%...