Greg Pinelli

Seismic Geopolitical Events Have Little Effect on Markets

Matt..thanks for at least mentioning geopolitical events on Alpha! There were, to my way of thinking, 2 (possibly 3) critical events for 2008.
The first, and most important, was the election of Barrack Obama. The prospective Administration has already had an impact in foreign affairs..the Israeli attacks on Gaza are a direct consequence of their estimation a new American day has arrived and they are going to have to fend for themselves in an exceedingly dangerous neighborhood...these are message attacks.
Obamas people will change the entire investment landscape with a speed that has become a forgotten thing in the Bush years...much more forceful regulation..huge programs..a virtual reworking of who gets what and how much.
Second, but of equal importance, is the recognition of Peak Oil (which is just as well renamed Maximum Oil Production because it causes less constipation among the deniers). The IEA of all groups used every euphemism BUT the real words Peak Oil to describe the reality we face. The current price collapse has only (and very temporarily) masked this phenomenon. All hell will be unleashed the next surge around!
The first casuality of Peak Oil..very likely Mexico. It's no coincidence that drug cartel violence and in your face activity is related to rapidly diminishing resources at the Govts disposal to deal with it.
Mumbai and Georgia are really sideshows..Russia is in NO position to do more than roll rusty tanks across a near border and make some noise. The Indians have no future fighting Pakistan because the country would crumble and then they'd have radical Islamist groups causing even more trouble......