Greg Pinelli

Will We See a Debt-Financed Consumer Spending Spree?

I'm not sure what to make from the two charts and the articles except...
1. Debt is still very high...as a % of almost anything you choose..and if we choose Bankerbob's notion of debt to household income we ought to be scared as hell
2. The "new" credit expansion we'll see in the next 6 months will largely go towards repairing household balance sheets...There's going to be a constant drumbeat for small business loans and projects galore..
The next consumer spending frenzy will start in later 2009 (around Xmas...big surprise)..All that pent up denial will explode in a shopping binge..and almost certain record number of Mall sale homicides.

Swiss Helvetia Fund on U.S. Economy, vs. EWL

Interesting Matthew..I've owned SWZ on and off for years....After looking at both Funds portfolio I prefer SWZ slightly..only because it is heavier weighted towards pharma/biotech and slightly less towards fonancials..that said.....
The typical ratio of EWL:SWZ is around 1.65..right now it's at 1.54..EWL might be a better play for one initiating a position...
One has to wonder why the steep relative plunge for EWL in Nov 2008 and late Dec 2008??

Government Panic Could Herald Dollar Panic

There's little to argue about concerning the dollars trashing...All that potential money/credit will hit the streets at some point..The REAL question though is just what the dollar is going to devalue against...I haven't seen any candidates presented by Mr. Browne...he either doesn't know or he isn't sharing his insight with us. So let's do a little heavy lifting for him....
The Euro would be the next big dude on the monetary block..except that it is a currency in search of a plan. Just holding the Euro together will require some very deft diplomacy..it's a currency by committeee..and many of the members don't like each other.
The Yen? Hardly..its major international function is as a whipping post in carry trade play...
The A$? The Yuan? One too small..the other..too secretive..That leaves the ONLY other default currency ...Gold. No one really has to MAKE a case for it..I think 2000 years of exposing monetary progligacy speaks for itself....

Oil's Rise Due to Fundamentals - UBS

Oil can go anywhere it damn well pleases...The REAL question is whether anyone with sense will develop..drill....and ship oil at less than $70-75 a barrel????
I don't pull any punches on Alpha....When oil is below $45 I am a consistent buyer of USO.....
As an aside..I wouldn't be too sanguine about the nat gas supply...shale depletes VERY quickly..and if you think pulling a Ukraine..Russia dance is beyond North American suppliers and your comfy living room..I'd seriously rethink that....None of these people love you...

Someone Has to Lend in 2009: Ideas to Profit

#3 refers to Gold vs. all currencies..but I'll bite...Oil will rise
against all currencies because the holders of this finite resource will do the math...it actually pays them long term to withhold what we want....time is on their side....
When I write the things in my articles I ALWAYS do so from the perspective of an analyst. I'm NOT advocating that these are the best outcomes..I'm simply telling you that..from my perspective..these are the LIKELY outcomes. Investing is no different from going to Las Vegas..you can hit a jackpot and be smart enough to quit..or you can drink too much and feed the casinos...
As for LINE and LGCY and other oil/gas plays I emphasize...My point is to shpw that at the end of the day you're far better off getting a very substantial distribution supported by a reliable cash flow. For those who are near retirement (5 yrs or less) aim at the distribution rate of your investments...you won't become hostage to the price...

The 'Reflation' Top Ten Portfolio

Certainly more forward thinking than "tomorrow will be just like today only worse" deflationist crowd. Especially like the double short on treasuries...TBT..hard to imagine anyone is going to think their money is "safe" when inflation is back up to 7-8% and they're getting 1-2%.
Gold coins are excellent..silver are not..cumbersome and except for junk carry 35%+++ premiums....

Shorting to Take Advantage of Overbought Market

Paul...tighten up the whole deal...very "short" term trades have very large error profiles....You like gold?..Then tell us some medium term (3-6 mos) trading patterns that make sense for someone other than day traders.....
Keep at it....


On Jan 05 01:42 PM Paul Singh wrote:

> Sure things can get more overbought. However, nothing goes in a
> straight line. I expect a pullack, and am playing it.
>
> If you read closely you will see that this is a *very* short term
> trade. Please understand the time frame I am using. I am bullish
> on a longer time frame, as the charts I posted indicate.
>
> During the period you are talking about, I made some excellent short
> term trades using the T2108 when it reached *extreme* oversold readings.

Gold and Oil: A Long Term Play on the Economy

Inflation indexed bonds!? Maybe the tooth fairy will guarantee them! The author is spot on..gold can easily be translated into ANY coin of the realm..in 12-18 mos the word "Inflation" will be on everyones lips..and contributors on Alpha who are now telling us to beware of deflation will...change their spots!! Your website should be shunned or burned down! 2000 years ago people much smarter than you (which must have been almost anyone) knew gold was the standard of value......


On Jan 06 09:09 PM gabe borenstein wrote:

> Inflation was not an issue for quite some time.The phenomenal price
> spike in commodities ,including gold and the crude was the result
> of the massive leveraged speculation by the hedge funds not the function
> of the excessive demand(demand pull inflation).In fact as the demand
> for the crude and the other commodities imploded ,deflation and a
> massive contraction are dominating the current cycle with the vegeance
> .
> The recent hike in the energy sector is driven by the events in
> the Middle East and Russian emargo on the gas exportd to the Ukraine.In
> the period ahead these prices should once again resume the downward
> trend.
> The programs in place and the new aid package discussed by the President
> elect should "ignite" the non-inflationary economic recovery and
> the stock market rally(U.S).
> One financial sectors of the market continues to be vulnearable
> to a major setback.
> Gold ?it is a shiny piece of metal that was utilized as the means
> of the "standard ". exchange since some primitive societies became
> aware of the gold. Now ? who cares .Are you going to purchase a house
> ? a car ?with the kilobars.
> When the inflation becomes a threat -not in the period ahead-the
> sophisticated investors will committ to inflation indexed bonds
>
>

New Bull Market for Oil?

The slamming of oil in 2008 was a unique event...it guaranteed that the next go around was going to be sudden..and involve very dramatic price surges. The financial crisis and the ensuing shutdown of oil and gas development meant that a percent 2 or 3x the demand destruction was taking place. This is the why of the dramatic increases in equities like PWE..LGCY and LINE (among many others).
Depletion (6-8%)+Shut In Development (5-10%?)=4% Demand Destruction...NOT
Oil willbe at the $60 break even point soon..add a minimum 10% profit for the risk..and that is modest...and we're at $66.00 before you can say Phil Flynn's an Idiot....

New Cartel Announces the End of Cheap Gas

So called "renewable"sources of energy are enormous energy hogs in their production and installation phases...This may also seem like an impertinent reminder..but the sun doesn't always shine in South Dakota..and in some places there's not always wind blowing at the right time..And oh yeah..forgot to mention there is not much of a grid to actually take God's energy gift to us all to where it needs to go..or to store it...
Also..again sorry..but nat gas is stil very much a regional (local) fuel. It costs very different amounts in very different places because its not so easy to move around. Just a little remonder also..people may not like those nasty Russians..but the gas IS theirs..just a minor point.

Was Q4 2008 the Worst of It?

It's difficult Mr. Krugman was conscious during the past national election..it's not going to take months to pass a stimulus package..I'd be surprised if there aren't multiple stimulus packages (to include huge tax relief) and they'll happen with weeks of the Inauguration.
This isn't a matter of bear or bull scenarios...its a matter of reliquifying the credit markets. That process will be highly "successful." And it will also sow the seeds of the next great problem..overstimulati... and inflation and then..the rationing of resources, and not JUST thru the price mechanism.
The world is operating at the speed of light..all this stuff isn't going to fit into last generations time parameters. Poor Paul is two generations removed from the pillaging of market restraint that's knocking at the door...

The Bailouts Are Doomed - All of Them

So..when do you expect the Visigoths to pound down the doors in Washington??? The "choice" is stop whining and make investment decisions..All this bailout money..7 trillion, give or take a trillion..Agreed?
That is bound to lead to incredible credit creation and currency depreciation..that was the POINT of the whole exercise...I'd strongly suggest people take that lesson away and find something that will insulate them from this horrible consequence...How about gold? Sounds more constructive than pissing up a tree......


On Jan 05 10:08 AM market ace wrote:

> Amen. I agree totally with your fine article and the related comments,
> but sadly I see no hope for changing gov't in America. It is fine
> to say vote out incompetent incombents, but they are all oppossed
> by rookie, incompetents - so where is the choice? The Roman Empire
> gives concrete examples of what will happen in Washington and eventually
> the nation when corrupt bankers and politicians combine to fleece
> the country, just as Jefferson warned hundreds of years ago.

The Bailouts Are Doomed - All of Them

Now that all the self righteous have vented and explained to us ad nauseum how we are headed down the road of the Roman Empire..so what?? Every situation presents itself with investment opportunities..if someone wants to make a political statement go to moveon.org...you'll get all kinds of malcontents coming out of the woodwork..They'll just love the part about Fidel Castro! Right in thier wheelhouse!
So..name ONE investible idea from that lengthy rendering..That's what I thought..What investment consequences will the failure of the bailouts have..specifically?? That's what I thought....
If the bailouts weren't done how would YOU have handled the mess? Let the market work itself out? Like the Great Depression did (15 years later)??

Shorting to Take Advantage of Overbought Market

With no disrespect intended.since you obviously put sometime into this..but remember last October..and then November?? Almost everything was oversold..and then it became very much oversold...See all those straight lines in the RSI (taken from StockCharts.com)..that... the fallacy of linear projection...and it's how investors get whipsawed..
I'm not saying charts aren't useful..but it takes MUCH more than that to understand markets. Broader turns in certain equities..and we are seeing them in spades..are very useful. Look at the charts for LINE..SLV...AUY...for my money we are going to see a sharp hairpin turn in these and many other stocks.....

Reader's Comment: Oil Stocks vs. Oil Trading Strategy

This is..to say the least..a highly overworked and largely untradeable idea.
Even a fairly sophisticated investor is going to have to wrestle very hard to squeeze simply the essence of what is going on and commit to a series of short term trades. I have a simpler idea....
Buy the commodity for the shorter.intermediate term..USO will do just fine..sell when it's 1 std dev below the 200 dMA..buy on the opposite..Not sophisticated but profitable and simple..and it keeps trading costs low...
Buy a CEF or ETF consisting of oil equities/services that pays a nice distribution and hold for the payouts..you could use the same 200dMA strategy above..it saves a lot of whip sawing..I wouldn't argue with a higher stdDev if one is more conservative....Ratios are great for spotting extremes in trends, but as daily investible indicators a very dangerous and ambiguous tool.